Long term repercussions from Covid-19 what will they be?

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

For the consideration of you doomsday preppers: the 1918-19 Spanish flu killed a full 3% of the world's population (and unlike this, particularly hit healthy, working age adults) - and yet most of the world not only avoided calamity, it even then preceded a massive economic boom.

yes but there were no epic stock market crash in 1918. Now we have a perfect combination of problems, stock market crash, oil price crash, covid-19, all happening at the same time.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

For the consideration of you doomsday preppers: the 1918-19 Spanish flu killed a full 3% of the world's population (and unlike this, particularly hit healthy, working age adults) - and yet most of the world not only avoided calamity, it even then preceded a massive economic boom.

I'm open to all possibilities note "The Digital Decade" thread that I made.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

yes but there were no epic stock market crash in 1918. Now we have a perfect combination of problems, stock market crash, oil price crash, covid-19, all happening at the same time.

Yeah I think the middle ground is to assume an economic collapse is about to occur. Our housing still exists and isn't gonna crumble any time soon, we have tonnes of land for food production, mass unemployment will be the norm but at the end most of us will end up dying of old age.

My question is can we afford to be broke?

I think people misunderstand how much we suffer from over abundance of everything.

Food shelter that's it.

Everything else functions as a luxury good.

We still have our industrial capacity and we still have our service sector as a labor reserve that we can mobilize to fill in the gaps.

My default assumption is that this is the end of our economic system. And I ask does anyone really want this system of extensive debt and inequality to prolong?

I'm not saying I want things to get worst, simply that our system is far from perfect and was bound for an overhall.


We still have technology and a highly skilled workforce.

We likely might loose a lot but it was inevitable we'd experience an "interruption" in prolonged prosperity.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

yes but there were no epic stock market crash in 1918. Now we have a perfect combination of problems, stock market crash, oil price crash, covid-19, all happening at the same time.

Umm, but they did have a World War that was going on at the same time the flu emerged.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Umm, but they did have a World War that was going on at the same time the flu emerged.

WW1 was 1914-1918. economic growth after WW2, same thing.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Umm, but they did have a World War that was going on at the same time the flu emerged.

My understanding is that post war periods produce economic booms.

Especially when so much of the world was wrapped in colonialism in the pre war period.

Ignoring of course that the 20s were not based on a sustainable economic system.

[Coldrsx]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The fear-based irrationality is fascinating to watch unfold. It reminds us of the thin veneer that keeps it all together.

This.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

yes but there were no epic stock market crash in 1918. Now we have a perfect combination of problems, stock market crash, oil price crash, covid-19, all happening at the same time.

The importance of stock market valuations is massively overstated.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I think the opposite. The more that people are forced to stay home and isolate and become bored and lonely, the more they'll crave and understand the value of the company of others. As I mentioned above, if things are better by the summer it'll go down as one of the funnest, liveliest, most party-filled summers ever.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic here, but I think this could all act as something of a worldwide bonding experience. We'll all be happy when it's over.

I don't disagree that when we do come out of this there will likely be some degree of elation and even a boom of sorts.

But I still wonder if the new normal that eventually sets in afterwards won't be less social, and more homebody-ish.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't disagree that when we do come out of this there will likely be some degree of elation and even a boom of sorts.

But I still wonder if the new normal that eventually sets in afterwards won't be less social, and more homebody-ish.

It depends on whether an effective vaccine is developed.

IMHO the cruise industry is going to take the biggest knock over this. It has been non-stop bad publicity for them. Following that down will be the airline and hotel industry.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I think the opposite. The more that people are forced to stay home and isolate and become bored and lonely, the more they'll crave and understand the value of the company of others. As I mentioned above, if things are better by the summer it'll go down as one of the funnest, liveliest, most party-filled summers ever.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic here, but I think this could all act as something of a worldwide bonding experience. We'll all be happy when it's over.

That's how I feel as well. Here's hoping we're right!!

[lio45]

The (small) part of my real estate portfolio that's run as Airbnb units has greatly increased its vacancy rate. Interesting to finally see one downside to it! So far it was only full of win (no Régie du Logement, no rent controls, no unpaid rent ever, no problem tenants you're stuck with, etc.) and I was going to expand this very successful experiment - the Airbnb units, 12 in total, all downtown, were almost always full - but now, I'm suddenly glad that most of my units are occupied by long-term tenants.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by lio45

The (small) part of my real estate portfolio that's run as Airbnb units has greatly increased its vacancy rate. Interesting to finally see one downside to it! So far it was only full of win (no Régie du Logement, no rent controls, no unpaid rent ever, no problem tenants you're stuck with, etc.) and I was going to expand this very successful experiment - the Airbnb units, 12 in total, all downtown, were almost always full - but now, I'm suddenly glad that most of my units are occupied by long-term tenants.

Diversification is key, even in real estate tenants.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by milomilo

The importance of stock market valuations is massively overstated.

Theoretically and logically, you are absolutely right but our economic system is a reflection of our social system and it's anything but logical.

Certainly a crash in the stock market can have true financial consequences as people equity decline's but the real implication for most people is psychological. When a stock market crashes people assume an economic collapse will follow whether the economics of it makes sense or not. People then act accordingly by putting off major purchases and not spending as much on discretionary items and services which in turn leads to layoffs and the recessions builds on itself.

[ssiguy]

As far as the long-term consequences are concerned, I think you will find a worldwide shift to a more vegan based diet. Although it's hardly surprising that this virus started in China with it's truly revolting eating and hygiene habits, the reality is that such a pandemic would eventually happed regardless as more people become meat eaters with their rising standard of living.

When we talk about a nice "juicy" steak we are simply stating a consumer friendly way of saying that that we will be able to taste all the blood. When we eat animal we are eating everything they have consumed and even touched {whether on land, sea, or air} and this is the kind of painful lesson that will wake the planet up and cause people to sit back and REALLY examine exactly what is going in their mouths. You can certainly get sick by things like food poising while on a vegan diet but I have never heard of a large scale virus occur due to eating plant-based food.

[Doug]

What should happen:

Better standards around separating animal populations from human population to reduce spread of zoonotic diseases. This could involve restrictions on wet markets and traditional medicines derived from animal sources.

What will happen:

Low interest rates and increased government borrowing prolonging asset bubbles in real estate and government bonds.

[theman23]

Westjet will die.

Air Canada will become insolvent and file for bankruptcy protection, will likely be bailed out.

Housing market correction.

EV adoption will slow.

People will go on having the exact same disgusting hygiene habits as they've always had.

I suppose only the first one technically meets all the criteria of a "long term repercussion".
"

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

As far as the long-term consequences are concerned, I think you will find a worldwide shift to a more vegan based diet. Although it's hardly surprising that this virus started in China with it's truly revolting eating and hygiene habits, the reality is that such a pandemic would eventually happed regardless as more people become meat eaters with their rising standard of living.

When we talk about a nice "juicy" steak we are simply stating a consumer friendly way of saying that that we will be able to taste all the blood. When we eat animal we are eating everything they have consumed and even touched {whether on land, sea, or air} and this is the kind of painful lesson that will wake the planet up and cause people to sit back and REALLY examine exactly what is going in their mouths. You can certainly get sick by things like food poising while on a vegan diet but I have never heard of a large scale virus occur due to eating plant-based food.

"Juicy" meat is about the fat, surely, not the blood.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Doug

What should happen:

Better standards around separating animal populations from human population to reduce spread of zoonotic diseases. This could involve restrictions on wet markets and traditional medicines derived from animal sources.

The wet markets are really something that need to be addressed. And by addressed I mean cancelled. I remember the first time I visited Chinese wet markets in 2002, before SARS turned my mind to issues of sanitation and hygiene. My jaw practically hit the floor... the practices in there were staggering by western standards.

It does not surprise me in the least that many outbreaks had their origins in those environments.

[SignalHillHiker]

I suspect it'll have a similar effect as the Beijing Olympics - lots of people who aren't used to blue skies and less-spoiled nature realizing it's possible. Some of the most popular videos I've seen coming out of Italy are clear waters in the canals of Venice, dolphins swimming right up to quays in formerly-busy harbours, etc.

There will likely also be some changes in who is allowed to work from home in the future.

I imagine we'll also see more restrictive controls on movement in western countries much faster in any future pandemic.