How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City?

[Pedestrian]

For those who want to open things back up:

White House officials laid out stark data used to extend federal social distancing guidelines through April, with the numbers projecting that without mitigation the death toll could be as much as 2.2 million, compared with 100,000 to 240,000 with intervention.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...d=hp_lead_pos1

The argument seems to be that 2 million more deaths are OK as long as they are older people and not us.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It seems Brazil is mirroring Italy and Spain exactly , with a three-week delay.

After three days straight with deaths at 22-23 daily, today it registered 42, mere 14 days after the first death was registered in the country on March 17th. Italy registered its first death on Feb 21st and 14 days later, on Mar 6th, there were 49.

São Paulo metro area centered most of cases. Things won't be easy on the next days here in the city. I'm not sure how long denialists will keep insisting people should go back to business as usual. Not themselves: they made car parades to support the president with windows closed and wearing masks (!!!).

Are all Brazilian cities on total lockdown?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

Are all Brazilian cities on total lockdown?

Most Brazilian cities, all across the country, are in semi-lockdown by municipal and state ordinances. Non-essential services and schools were closed, but there is only strong recommendations to stay home, nothing enforced by law. São Paulo is incredibly empty, no more gridlocks for the past two weeks.

The problem is the erratic messages coming from Bolsonaro attacking governors, mayors and even his own ministers.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The problem is the erratic messages coming from Bolsonaro attacking governors, mayors and even his own ministers.

That sounds familiar.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Most Brazilian cities, all across the country, are in semi-lockdown by municipal and state ordinances. Non-essential services and schools were closed, but there is only strong recommendations to stay home, nothing enforced by law. São Paulo is incredibly empty, no more gridlocks for the past two weeks.

The problem is the erratic messages coming from Bolsonaro attacking governors, mayors and even his own ministers.

I sincerely hope that son of a bitch gets ousted some way or another.

The Hungarian parliament has just given unlimited powers to Orban, the Prime Minister on account of the covid19 crisis. I just don't want the same thing to happen elsewhere, least of all an important country like Brazil.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

For those who want to open things back up:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...d=hp_lead_pos1

The argument seems to be that 2 million more deaths are OK as long as they are older people and not us.

Without getting to any argument about the general seriousness of Covid or current/proposed mitigation measures..

I would really like to know if those death estimates are accretive.

ie. Is the range stated above, net new deaths above and beyond normal?

In a typical year, the U.S. sees about 2.9 million deaths.

So if the worst-case is accretive you're looking at 5 million or so this year.

If its not accretive (meaning some people who were going to die this year already, are now going to die with or of Covid, as opposed to a different cause) that surely matters.

That's not an argument against mitigation, or for any lack of compassion; rather its one for more facts, and better understanding of what trades off are; and could be made.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Without getting to any argument about the general seriousness of Covid or current/proposed mitigation measures..

I would really like to know if those death estimates are accretive.

ie. Is the range stated above, net new deaths above and beyond normal?

In a typical year, the U.S. sees about 2.9 million deaths.

So if the worst-case is accretive you're looking at 5 million or so this year.

If its not accretive (meaning some people who were going to die this year already, are now going to die with or of Covid, as opposed to a different cause) that surely matters.

That's not an argument against mitigation, or for any lack of compassion; rather its one for more facts, and better understanding of what trades off are; and could be made.

In 2017 there were 2.8 million deaths in the US from all causes. Clearly if there are 2.2 million from coronavirus alone in the next 12-18 months (before there's a vaccine), there is a large incremental number due solely to coronavirus. I haven't seen and can't find any guess about the overlap, that is what you seem to be seeking (the number of folks who die of coronavirus this week who might have died anyway next week or next month). But there's got to be hundreds of thousands, probably over a million in the worst case scenario who would NOT die this year but for the virus.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

......
I haven't seen and can't find any guess about the overlap, that is what you seem to be seeking (the number of folks who die of coronavirus this week who might have died anyway next week or next month).

Correct, this is what I'm seeking.

But there's got to be hundreds of thousands, probably over a million in the worst case scenario who would NOT die this year but for the virus.

I agree there is the risk of a very high, accretive number.

But I think that number is an important one to have proper modelling for.

We need to weight that as we consider the deaths that will occur resulting from delayed/cancelled cancer surgeries and transplants.

Again, not an argument against mitigation, but rather information to inform the type, nature and duration of said mitigation.

[mhays]

Why would cancer surgeries and transplants be delayed? I assume they're holding back a few masks and ventilators for those. Nobody has said anything about cancelling them to my knowledge. All I've heard about is cancelling elective surgeries...sports-performance and quality of life etc.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

I think Florida could really have a problem because Gov. deSantis has been quite Trumpian in his approach to this--shutting down I-10 to Louisianans but coming very late to the game of halting the Spring Break revelry. And I still get the feeling from all my Florida relatives that they are rather casual about this. My niece lets her kids ride their bikes around the neighborhood (the beach in their county is closed) and they are teens--who knows where they go and what they do (like to a convenience store for drinks and snacks etc). On the other hand, their Mom, my niece, is a veterinarian and at her practice they have stopped pet owners from coming inside: They greet them in the parking lot and a tech carries the pet inside for treatment or whatever it came for.

I use two vets and they do the same.

Regarding Florida, I wonder about The Villages, which I believe is the largest retirement community in the country, with an estimated 2018 population of 128,000. I've visited eight times, and I don't believe most of the residents are the type to have taken this seriously (maybe now, though). It's an older population, many of whom have serious health problems, so things could get bad for them if the virus gets started there (if not already).

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would cancer surgeries and transplants be delayed? I assume they're holding back a few masks and ventilators for those. Nobody has said anything about cancelling them to my knowledge. All I've heard about is cancelling elective surgeries...sports-performance and quality of life etc.

This is what's happening (cancer):

Canada:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/cancer-covid19-1.5512599

Britain:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-52038230

US:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ncer-patients/

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/29/82343...s-in-treatment

****

Transplants as well:

Canada:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/surgery-f...d-19-1.4860556

U.S.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...break-n1163066

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I went to the ATM the other night here in Austin around 9PM. I took several paper towels, a spray bottle of Clorox bleach disinfectant, a small cannister of Clorox Disinfectant wipes, and a small pump bottle of Purell!! I wiped down the ATM screen and buttons, and, since the money dispensed did not seem to be fresh off the printing press, I wiped down each twenty dollar bill from the $200 I withdrew. Came home and washed up some more. I felt like a crazy person, but there you have it. I am 73, and I have not set foot in a store in almost two weeks. I need some cash at home to pay when folks bring me groceries or other items.

It isn't crazy. It makes perfect sense at this point.

Sounds like you prefer not to give credit card info online or by phone to delivery services.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

I use two vets and they do the same.

Regarding Florida, I wonder about The Villages, which I believe is the largest retirement community in the country, with an estimated 2018 population of 128,000. I've visited eight times, and I don't believe most of the residents are the type to have taken this seriously (maybe now, though). It's an older population, many of whom have serious health problems, so things could get bad for them if the virus gets started there (if not already).

Older population is a bit underselling it. It's 55+ only right?

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would cancer surgeries and transplants be delayed? I assume they're holding back a few masks and ventilators for those. Nobody has said anything about cancelling them to my knowledge. All I've heard about is cancelling elective surgeries...sports-performance and quality of life etc.

One big reason is because cancer patients don't just have surgery. They usually get chemotherapy in addition to surgery and chemotherapy reduces their immune response. You don't want them anywhere near patients with this virus, certainly not in the same building.

Essentially to treat these immune suppressed patients, both those on chemotherapy and those post-transplant, you need to have them in a facility that scrupulously excludes people possibly infected with coronavirus. The cities and locales significantly affected by the virus mostly don't feel they have the hospital capacity to reserve a building for these types of treatment however in New York and LA it's one function the Navy Hospital ships can potentially provide (I know they are treating non-COVID patients and trying to scrupulously exclude the virus but whether they are including cancer surgery in the scope of what they are doing I can't say).

As an aside, I have two upcoming medical appointments and I have changed both of them from physical visits to my hospital-based doctors' offices to telephone/videoconference appointments and in one case, at the San Francisco VA, I was told they temporarily aren't doing any outpatient appointments in the hospital building for non-COVID patients.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Older population is a bit underselling it. It's 55+ only right?

55 is the new 45. You can't get Medicare until you're 65 or Social Security until you're 62.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I went to the ATM the other night here in Austin around 9PM. I took several paper towels, a spray bottle of Clorox bleach disinfectant, a small cannister of Clorox Disinfectant wipes, and a small pump bottle of Purell!! I wiped down the ATM screen and buttons, and, since the money dispensed did not seem to be fresh off the printing press, I wiped down each twenty dollar bill from the $200 I withdrew. Came home and washed up some more. I felt like a crazy person, but there you have it. I am 73, and I have not set foot in a store in almost two weeks. I need some cash at home to pay when folks bring me groceries or other items.

Congratulations for having someone to bring you groceries. I can't find any delivery service now that isn't totally overbooked. Even the curb-side pickup appointments are unavailable. Thankfully, not many cases of COVID in my community yet so I took a chance and went to the supermarket around 7:30 PM last Friday (they close at 9 PM and people here go to bed early and rarely go out after dinner hour) and got what I thought I'd need for a couple weeks. I wore cotton gloves in the store, applied hand sanitizer after leaving before touching my car and washed my hands vigorously when I got home.

I would have microwaved the money (two 20 minute bursts seems to be safe with paper and sufficient to kill the virus).

[Lear]

My neighborhood is Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg ...

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Sweden apparently so far has very relaxed rules regarding COVID-19:

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/swed...of-europe.html


Sweden defies lockdown trend, bets on citizens acting responsibly

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/s...sibly-n1172781

Sweden can say what it wants, Realistically the USA is locking down 269 million people at the moment. And almost all of it is voluntary.

Even the most extreme lock-downs round the northeast and California rely most heavily on people complying with an ask more than an order

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Sweden can say what it wants, Realistically the USA is locking down 269 million people at the moment. And almost all of it is voluntary.

Even the most extreme lock-downs round the northeast and California rely most heavily on people complying with an ask more than an order

Why do you think the lockdowns are voluntary?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Why do you think the lockdowns are voluntary?

They're quasi-voluntary. No one is being stopped for walking down the street or taking a stroll in the park.

Of course if someone grossly violates distancing rules they could theoretically be ticketed, but I assume they would first be warned.