Why isn't Chicago...greater than it currently is in 2023?

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's not more of a hassle than Florida/Texas summers. Trust me

"Perception is reality", though. Whether it's about Chicago crime or Chicago winters.

Harse winters have not stopped Minneapolis metro from growing steadily. And apparently, that metro has segregation and crime issues, which contributed to the George Floyd killing.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

Is it just the weather? Is that honestly such a big deal for people?

Mostly. And yes. There are tons of people who think NYC is cold (I know some of them personally). Chicago is even colder. And there are millions and millions of Americans just like that.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Harse winters have not stopped Minneapolis metro from growing steadily. And apparently, that metro has segregation and crime issues, which contributed to the George Floyd killing.

If Minneapolis were in Texas, Georgia or Florida it would be growing twice as fast and be twice as big.

[lio45]

Canada doesn't have a Sunbelt for us to decamp to (well we can but it's more complicated!), if Chicago joined us then it would really be booming

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by lio45

Canada doesn't have a Sunbelt for us to decamp to (well we can but it's more complicated!), if Chicago joined us then it would really be booming

Seems like a good deal other than having no land border with Canada. I believe joining Canada would definitely ramp up the Toronto vs Chicago rivalry to a whole new level.

[Nite]

For what i see and read online, Americans seems hypersensitive to taxes and it will often be the main reason to movie to a different state.

In Canada for comparison, no one chooses to move to a different province based on the tax rates.
Most Canadian wouldn't even know which are the high or low tax provinces.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Harse winters have not stopped Minneapolis metro from growing steadily. And apparently, that metro has segregation and crime issues, which contributed to the George Floyd killing.

Minneapolis also didn't have a major decline in population like most legacy midwest/rust belt cities. It's part of the new midwest that includes Columbus, Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, Des Moines, Madison, etc.

[Zapatan]

Cold weather is definitely a deterrent to some but then look how successful Toronto is... just to name one booming cold weather city.

As many have mentioned, Chicago is sort of a legacy city, established global cities tend to boom less and build less. Kind of like Hong Kong or Tokyo vs. the new dawgs.

Would be nice to see Chicago make a comeback, which I think it's sort of doing, especially in the downtown area.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

Ok, don't come for me--just hear me out.

We hear about cities like Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, etc. blowing up. People are "fleeing" LA/SF and NYC for cheaper cost living enclaves.

What I don't get it is...why doesn't Chicago seem to have more pull? It is a world class city, truly urban through and through, offers traditional cosmopolitan major city life, and save it for a few crime-ridden parts, is pretty safe and most importantly exceptionally affordable for a city of its kind. Atlanta is apparently the land of $36k-salaried millionaires, but who wants that when you can live in an urban brownstone-lite in a compact neighborhood in Chicago that boasts the arts, transit, culinary enclaves and more? If I'm also understanding correctly, you can find McMansions galore in the Chicago ex-urbs too.

Anecdotally, when I speak to people in Seattle, LA, SF, or SD, I rarely hear anybody yearning to move to Chicago. But they'll be open to relocating to Austin, Dallas or Miami.

Is it just the weather? Is that honestly such a big deal for people? Lack of higher paying jobs? To me, Chicago is an amazing city which I think most us can agree on--but shouldn't it be exploding with growth and becoming a major go to? It seems like it's just been sort of stagnant—growth seems more like a slow burn than making front page news stories.

I'm extremely biased since I love Chicago, but you bring up a lot of good points.....

Yes - Chicago has tons of problems with crime, corruption, etc, etc.

However, for those of us who love it here, everything else the city offers simply eclipses the problems the city has plus the winters. Although this winter has felt especially mild. We've had a handful of cold snaps that only last a few days. 30-40 degrees isn't what people can't stand.... It's the weeks of <20 degree weather that really compounds on the soul.

For me, it's everything - The architecture, the people.... the Summers.... the beautiful lakefront with miles of green parks and blue waters..... The food (minus Molort)... the diversity of neighborhoods.

And it's insanely cheap for what you get - Even with taxes accounted for. I lived in Denver from 2015-2021 and I left for a variety of reasons, but cost of real estate was one of them. Chicago use to be more expensive than so many cities outside NY/LA, but that's not the case anymore.

From a climate change perspective, Chicago is sitting just fine. We will never have to worry about running out of fresh water. We won't have to worry about sea level rise. If manufacturing has a renaissance in America at some point, Chicago is naturally positioned (as it always has been) for waterway transport. Growing seasons will lengthen.

All it's going to take is something to spur massive growth here to reverse the population stagnation. Whatever that may be, but I expect someday it will happen.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Zapatan

Cold weather is definitely a deterrent to some but then look how successful Toronto is... just to name one booming cold weather city.

These cross-national comparisons make no sense. There are totally different migration inputs.

If Toronto were in the U.S. it would be another Buffalo or Rochester, at best. If Chicago were in Canada it would have 20 million people.

Also, Toronto isn't a "cold weather city". It has some of the best weather (in Canada). It's the only big English-speaking city in (arguably) the most welcoming nation for immigrants on earth. It's basically Canada's NY-LA-Bay Area-Chicago-Boston-Detroit.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

Anecdotally, when I speak to people in Seattle, LA, SF, or SD, I rarely hear anybody yearning to move to Chicago. But they'll be open to relocating to Austin, Dallas or Miami.

Is it just the weather? Is that honestly such a big deal for people? Lack of higher paying jobs? To me, Chicago is an amazing city which I think most us can agree on--but shouldn't it be exploding with growth and becoming a major go to? It seems like it's just been sort of stagnant—growth seems more like a slow burn than making front page news stories.

First

Honest question… are your friends middle-aged or older?

Because when you include Miami, well…, Miami is a big destination for older people but not so much for younger people. Just saying as a former South Floridian.

Chicago Winters are never going to appeal to senior citizens. So it will never get a population boom from retirees.

2020 Median Age
Chicago: 34.8 yrs
Miami-Dade: 40.2 years


Second

Chicago city median income growth is noticeably above the national average and most Southern cities.

It’s basically trading large families in poverty for wealthy small households. Since Chicago is not cheap compared to other Midwestern cities, the poor and lower middle often move out of state.


It’s resulted in a frustrating situation where Chicago can add more new tax paying households than NYC, LA, SF, SD and Boston and get almost zero overall population growth out of it.

[galleyfox]

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Chicago city median income growth is noticeably above the national average and most Southern cities.

This is probably a bad thing, however, at least long-term.

The biggest demographic change in Chicagoland is the plummeting immigration counts from Mexico, which depress income numbers, but ultimately supercharge neighborhood revitalization and economic growth. Sometimes it's good to have low(er) income growth.

Median incomes in Queens and South Brooklyn started plummeting in the 1990's/early 2000's, during peak immigration, and concurrent with NYC's revitalization. Queens and South Brooklyn showed massive improvement, even as household incomes lagged.

[JManc]

Chicago is amazing but cold AF.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is probably a bad thing, however, at least long-term.

The biggest demographic change in Chicagoland is the plummeting immigration counts from Mexico, which depress income numbers, but ultimately supercharge neighborhood revitalization and economic growth. Sometimes it's good to have low(er) income growth.

Median incomes in Queens and South Brooklyn started plummeting in the 1990's/early 2000's, during peak immigration, and concurrent with NYC's revitalization. Queens and South Brooklyn showed massive improvement, even as household incomes lagged.

It’s more like a double edged sword long term.

A city either has to maintain high immigration levels perpetually, or there has to be significant economic mobility and retention at the higher end.

Otherwise, cities risk following the path of the Midwest where the bottom fell out once the migration slowed and higher income households moved to the suburbs.

For example, the cities Houston, Dallas and Atlanta have similar homicide rates as Chicago, and are not seeing to big crime drops that NYC had. Also, their core cities have weaker growth than the suburbs.

So right now, their pattern is more Midwestern than NYC, which is a risky long term situation.

[maru2501]

chicago was hitting a stride for sure before covid and Lori

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by chris08876

But in all seriousness, a lot of folks underestimate the idea of perception. Chicago's weak leadership and rampant crime does deter folks outside of the gated communities of downtown and the lake front communities/neighborhoods in which the high cost of living relative to the surroundings requires higher caliber folks. It's why the suburbs see much better growth in Chicagoland.

You talk about the power of perception as opposed to actual truth. You then go right back into the standard media perception of rampant crime and weak leadership without providing evidence. You're correct that Chicago suffers from a perception issue. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done about it when nothing positive is ever actually reported and spread through the typical media narrative.

I don't live downtown or along the lakefront, but rather in the northwest side, about halfway between downtown and O'Hare airport. Not expensive, still quite nice, easy transit access, walkable, etc.. In fact, I can nearly guarantee my rent is less than I'd be paying in most other cities that have been mentioned in this very thread.

I don't discount Chicago's warts in any way. Crime is definitely too high, but certainly isn't rampant. There are definitely plenty of issues, but what city doesn't face a boatload of issues? All in all, this place is a damned bargain for what you get!

Aaron (Glowrock)

[iheartthed]

I'd be careful about confusing what Americans buzz about with a great city. Americans don't really buzz about NYC, but it is arguably the greatest city on the planet. Americans buzz about shit that looks like this and disdain scenes like this.

I also don't think Chicago's weather has much of anything to do with the city's seeming stagnation. I suspect most of the cities in the Midwest still haven't quite gotten a handle on sprawl which has acted as a sap on their central cities, but Sun Belt cities haven't really had to deal with that problem yet.

[wg_flamip]

Originally Posted by Crawford

IMO Chicago's biggest attractions are that it's probably the only U.S. city not on the coasts that's a "real city", it probably has the second largest traditional urban core in the Americas, and it couldn't be more central.

I'd agree for North America, but Buenos Aires has it beat in the Americas as a whole IMO.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by glowrock

You talk about the power of perception as opposed to actual truth. You then go right back into the standard media perception of rampant crime and weak leadership without providing evidence. You're correct that Chicago suffers from a perception issue. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done about it when nothing positive is ever actually reported and spread through the typical media narrative.

The problem with perception is that it doesn’t actually drive migration or city growth. Social networks, geographic location and real economic conditions do.

The general media almost always follows the people least likely to drive urbanization, retirees and large families with children. Because of that they are almost always 20-30 years behind the real start of any shift. Tracking young educated women is actually a better measure of where a city is going, but that rarely happens.

For example earlier in the thread:

It's why the suburbs see much better growth in Chicagoland.

I’m pretty sure this is false for the 2010s and quite likely for the 2020s so far as well. The city grew faster than the suburbs in the 2010.

On the topic of 1990s NYC, a savvy person would have started investing in the 1980s. There were articles as early as 1982 talking about increased median income, a larger young female population, and increase in immigration, even though the overall population numbers were the source of many doomer articles in the media.