CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[moorhosj1]

Rather than opine on how we think other people will vote, maybe we should talk about the things we want to hear from each candidate. Now that we are down to two candidates, the media should be able to nail them down a little better. My questions for each:

Vallas

• How will he pay for massive increases to police budget?
• Will he present a transit plan?
• How will he work with CTU to avoid another strike?
• Will he enforce the CPD consent decree?

Johnson

• Which tax increases does he actually support?
• How would he work with the CTU and new school board when negotiating with CPS?
• Will he close schools if the school board recommends it?
• How will he work with the business community?

[Randomguy34]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Given how others in this thread have probably more accurately assessed Johnson's base and who he may attract leading to the runoff, I think this is a stretch.

It's not a stretch since Johnson had double-digit support from almost all of the majority Black precincts, even if Lightfoot or Wilson was their 1st choice. Every other candidate had single-digit support. This pretty much shows Black voters will show up for Johnson rather than Vallas.

Map: https://blockclubchicago.org/2023/03...-the-election/

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

It's not a stretch since Johnson had double-digit support from almost all of the majority Black precincts, even if Lightfoot or Wilson was their 1st choice. Every other candidate had single-digit support. This pretty much shows Black voters will show up for Johnson rather than Vallas.

Map: https://blockclubchicago.org/2023/03...-the-election/

Sounds to me like Vallas has more to gain then... if Johnson already got a big chunk of the progressive black vote... isn't it kinda racist to just assume the more moderate/conservative Lightfoot/Wilson voters will back Johnson for no reason other than skin color?

[Randomguy34]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Sounds to me like Vallas has more to gain then... if Johnson already got a big chunk of the progressive black vote... isn't it kinda racist to just assume the more moderate/conservative Lightfoot/Wilson voters will back Johnson for no reason other than skin color?

I did not say Black voters will likely back him cause of his skin color, please read what I said.

I said almost all of the majority Black precincts already showed their support for Johnson by having double-digit votes for him. This is despite many of them not having him as their first canadidate. Vallas was getting single-digit support in those areas. With that fact, why would you expect voters in these precincts to be more likely to support Vallas rather than Johnson?

[UPChicago]

Originally Posted by sentinel

Given how others in this thread have probably more accurately assessed Johnson's base and who he may attract leading to the runoff, I think this is a stretch.

Most of assessment came from folks who don't seem to be black voters. I don’t believe Paul Vallas is not going to do well in the areas Lightfoot won and I don't think the votes he picks up from Chuy (and to a lesser extend Wilson) are going to be enough to put him over the top. He performed poorly in black precincts receiving less than 10% of the vote in most instances and I don't think it is reasonable to believe he's going to now performance much better.

Blockclub has a map of just Vallas and Johnson votes. Unless there is some major endorsement I think that map is how things are likely going to shake out.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Kenmore

looking good for brandon, nice turn of events for chicago

vallas is such a tool lol

I dunno, Vallas is many things (a lot of them bad) but if one of the candidates is a tool it's the one who had their campaign (possibly illegally) bankrolled by the same organization from which they collect a nearly 6-figure salary.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

I did not say Black voters will likely back him cause of his skin color, please read what I said.

I said almost all of the majority Black precincts already showed their support for Johnson by having double-digit votes for him. This is despite many of them not having him as their first canadidate. Vallas was getting single-digit support in those areas. With that fact, why would you expect voters in these precincts to be more likely to support Vallas rather than Johnson?

Because the progressive vote was unified around Johnson and the moderate vote was split between 5 candidates?

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Because the progressive vote was unified around Johnson and the moderate vote was split between 5 candidates?

The enemy of my enemy....

[marothisu]

I don't feel like most maps do a good job of capturing the reality of 2nd and 3rd place in precincts. I started an analysis and will do more later, but I'm a few wards so far I noticed that a lot of Chuy dominated areas like Little Village and Brighton Park had Vallas coming in 2nd much ahead of Johnson. To me it shows these areas swing a little more moderate in reality. There were also other areas where Lightfoot or Wilson won, with Johnson coming in 2nd but sometimes Vallas barely had any fewer votes than Johnson. Sometimes only 1 vote less. These to me are more nuanced areas that people are assuming will automatically go to Johnson when there may be more moderates there than realized.

I'll do it after work but there's definitely a lot more going on than these maps show. I think people are underestimating how many Chuy supporters for example will actually swing for Vallas instead. Just also remember that Chuy endorsed an FOP back alderman instead of the progressive one. Lightfoot has a bunch of moderates as well. I think these voting groups may be more split than people want to admit. Wilson will probably go a lot for Vallas but not a lot. Most of the other voters will majorly go for Johnson.

[moorhosj1]

This is huge for Paul Vallas, White is the most popular politician in Illinois.

Newly-retired Jesse White, the first African-American elected as Illinois Secretary of State, is endorsing Paul Vallas, giving Vallas a leg up in his quest to claim the 20% share of the Black vote he needs to win the April 4 mayoral runoff against Brandon Johnson.

[SamInTheLoop]

^^ It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that Vallas would be coming in well ahead of Johnson in majority Mexican-American areas that voted for Chuy on the SW side. As expected. It's a naturally more moderate part of the electorate, in general.

This is going to be a fascinating few weeks for political analysts. So many layers. In Chicago (as in the nation), you can't escape racial politics. It unfortunately permeates everything. However, Johnson's base as I see it is not African-Americans. Beyond CTU, I see his true base as being north side/Lakefront white progressives.

As kngkyle pointed out earlier, the most progressive part of the Dem base nationally is now very clearly white. In general, African-Americans and Latinos are more centrist/pragmatic in how they vote (even if there are somewhat less dramatic differences when you dissect particular policy stances).

Vallas' base is definitely white, outer parts of the city. Much of this consists of people who would honestly vote Republican (as crazy as that is given what that completely post-policy party has become nationally) if they could.

So, who can grab the most centrists here? I think it's Vallas, but I'd guess by no more than 10-12 point margin, max. However, and most obviously - absolutely anything can happen this month. For example, will Vallas have further social media account hackings or 'hackings'?

Finally, do we have a final or near final tally of the vote by age range? In early returns at least, the under 30 vote was truly pathetic. Certainly if that repeats in the runoff, it's big for Vallas....but if younger folks show a meaningful increase in enthusiasm, Johnson could really benefit.

[marothisu]

^ Willie Wilson, with about 10% of the vote, will most likely be getting a lot of the Vallas vote. I think there's a path to over 50%. But I anticipate this will be a close race.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

This is huge for Paul Vallas, White is the most popular politician in Illinois.

Missed this but yeah thats pretty huge.

[tjp]

I’m praying Bernie or AOC don’t end up in Chicago campaigning for Brandon, haha.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by tjp

I’m praying Bernie or AOC don’t end up in Chicago campaigning for Brandon, haha.

Johnson's best move would be to get Trump to campaign for Vallas.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Kim Foxx cannot be blamed for the lack of arrests

Sure she can. An arrest is meaningless if there is no prosecution. Why go through the trouble of arresting someone (often at risk to their own safety) when you'll just see them on the street doing the same thing tomorrow?

Citizens, police, and the justice system all need to trust one another. Citizens not trusting the police is a problem. The police not trusting the justice system is a problem. Citizens not trusting the justice system is a problem. You can't just silo this issue and say only the police are the problem...

[Klippenstein]

^the justice system also has to trust the police, just like the people have to trust the police based on your model. The police have not shown that they can handle doing their job effectively within the parameters of basic reform. The consent decree was approved before Lightfoot took office and it’s still in place. And that’s only the first step before any reasonable person would consider trusting this police department on a broad level.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

^the justice system also has to trust the police, just like the people have to trust the police based on your model. The police have not shown that they can handle doing their job effectively within the parameters of basic reform. The consent decree was approved before Lightfoot took office and it’s still in place. And that’s only the first step before any reasonable person would consider trusting this police department on a broad level.

Right, every party has to trust one another. We currently have the opposite of that with every party blaming each other. It's a massive failure of leadership at every level. Two of those parties are getting new leadership now so this is a good chance to actually make positive change assuming whoever fills rolls don't just continue the blame game.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Sure she can. An arrest is meaningless if there is no prosecution. Why go through the trouble of arresting someone (often at risk to their own safety) when you'll just see them on the street doing the same thing tomorrow?

You know what puts them on the street even faster, not arresting them at all. Their job is not to prosecute people, it is to investigate crimes, make arrests, and recommend charges.

I don't always like how my colleagues in other departments manage the work I hand-off to them, but I don't get to just stop doing it. Can you name another job where your performance can fall by 80% and you can ask for a larger budget?

Do they have legitimate beef with Foxx? No doubt. Does that give them leeway to quit doing their jobs? I don't think so.

This article has some information on prosecutions.

From the State's Attorney:

In 2021, the CCSAO reviewed and made a charging decision for 15,303 adult felony cases in Cook County. 13,140 cases were
approved resulting in an 86% approval rate.

[Vlajos]

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/poli...t-endorsements

Gery Chico and Alderman Burnett endorse Vallas. The far left's calls of Vallas racism are pretty hollow.