Federal Government & Politics II

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, I have already agreed with you that it is a dirty trick.

But as long as the Liberals maintain the line that Trudeau is leading the party into the next election and Carney continues to present himself as an apolitical person then this is technically just the finance committee wanting to speak to an expert on the economy.



Is Carney even a member of the Liberal Party?

I don't know. But at the end of January he was quoted as saying:

"In the near term, the prime minister is going to be the leader of the Liberal Party in the next election...and I support him," Carney said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americ...on-2024-01-28/

The Conservatives look to be the ones obsessed with him running and wanting to flesh out his proposed platform.

I do hope, JT decides to spend more time with family and steps aside. Then Carney can change his mind and run. That said, just now it is more a Conservative obsession.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, I have already agreed with you that it is a dirty trick.

But as long as the Liberals maintain the line that Trudeau is leading the party into the next election and Carney continues to present himself as an apolitical person then this is technically just the finance committee wanting to speak to an expert on the economy.

Norms are about the spirit of the law. Not the letter. Yes, technically it's just asking an expert to testify. But when they are crowing so publicly, we know they don't care about the technicality.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Is Carney even a member of the Liberal Party?

Whether he is it isn't is entirely irrelevant. Doesn't change the context of this game.

If this is the new norm so be it. Hopefully, they don't cry when it's their potential leader getting dragged in next. I just don't like what shit like this does to our democracy. This is the kind of gross gotchya games we see south of the border.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

If he is intelligent there is no way he would agree to be Trudeau’s Turner or Campbell.

I don't know the recent lesson is waiting for a better time to become leader passes you by. McKay and Kenney or McKenna/Tobin all might have been able to win the immediate next election when things changed. Turner came very close to becoming PM in 1988. Actually he was ahead in the polls at this point by as much as PP is. Reframing the election on Free Trade.

I mean the odds of winning or even frankly a respectable result in 2025 seem low but letting someone else fall on the sword and hoping to swoop in is also difficult.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Harper was boring. By 2029 we might be ready for boring and steady. 2025 election is foregone conclusion.

Even if Trump becomes US president again in January 2025? I've mentioned before that my view is the Trump issue will be a huge wildcard.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Even if Trump becomes US president again in January 2025? I've mentioned before that my view is the Trump issue will be a huge wildcard.

I'm still not clear as to how Trump being elected in the US would give Canadians any more appetite for 4 more years of JT & the gang? Just because the US goes right doesn't mean that we go left.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I'm still not clear as to how Trump being elected in the US would give Canadians any more appetite for 4 more years of JT & the gang? Just because the US goes right doesn't mean that we go left.

There was a poll recently that showed that Canadians actually preferred Pollievere over Trudeau when it comes to dealing with Trump....so it's a non-factor.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I'm still not clear as to how Trump being elected in the US would give Canadians any more appetite for 4 more years of JT & the gang? Just because the US goes right doesn't mean that we go left.

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

There was a poll recently that showed that Canadians actually preferred Pollievere over Trudeau when it comes to dealing with Trump....so it's a non-factor.

Agreed, seems clear to me that most Canadians want a change of course from JT, regardless of who's in charge of other countries.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Even if Trump becomes US president again in January 2025? I've mentioned before that my view is the Trump issue will be a huge wildcard.

Yeah it's possible Trump scares some people if the Liberals have a new centrist leader but that all seems doubtful. Nothing is impossible though sure.

[casper]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

There was a poll recently that showed that Canadians actually preferred Pollievere over Trudeau when it comes to dealing with Trump....so it's a non-factor.

I would want someone with experience in the PM and External affairs seat if Trump were in power. Someone that is not easily persuaded by pseudoscience and conspiracy theories. Someone grounded from a core ethical base based on equality, based on treating people fairly. I don't see Poilievre remotely fitting that bill.

[thewave46]

Eh, if I’m playing the long-term Team Red game, letting Team Blue eat the tasty pile I’ve left them is probably a better long-term strategy for survival, even if it does sting in the short-term loss column.

JT/Team Red in perpetuity mostly is a self-defeating strategy despite the hopes of some.

Maybe the view from above the desk is different than from underneath though.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

I don't think we are going to see massive disruption to individuals from the mortgage rate renewal cliff. The government has changed the rules and is likely encourage the banks to show flexibility at renewal. Some people are going to end up with crappy mortgages that have them extending repayment out to retirement. That said, those mortgages will come up for renewal again in a few years.

The massive disruption comes in the form of greatly increased mortgage interest costs at renewal, which many households spoiled by past low teaser rates and strained by inflation isn't necessarily prepared for. This will likely force many households to cut back significantly on consumption and be a drag on the Canadian economy in late 2024 and 2025, especially if the US Fed isn't in a position to significantly cut rates. At the end of the day, mortgage is a recourse loan in most of Canada, so come hell or high water, Canadians will burn through every other option before opting to default on their mortgage.

OFSI's actively working to reduce negative amortization mortgages and keep a leash on amortization periods to control systematic banking system risk, so in reality the government can't just "change" the rules to force flexibility on banks, unless the Trudeau government decides to actively interfere with OFSI's mandate and severely weaken OFSI's regulatory power.