March 2021: California Median Home Price Soars to All-time High of $758,990

[dimondpark]

The governor is understandably busy but he promised 3.5 million new housing units when he ran for office and I havent heard anything from him on this issue since early last year---the pandemic is already starting to subside but housing is our true achilles' heel.

It seems like the only units being built in urban areas are for wealthy people, otherwise new, affordable homes for middle class families, which are already scarce, are at least a 90-minute drive away from the city.

What to do?

Anyway, Here is price and sales data for the Bay Area, Central Coast and Southern California.

March 2021 Median Home Price(Sales Growth 12-month period)
$758,990 State of California(+19.7%)

$1,985,000 San Mateo County(+29.7%)
$1,755,000 San Francisco County(+56.1%)
$1,627,500 Marin County(+16.3%)
$1,600,000 Santa Clara County(+44.3%)
$1,163,000 Alameda County(+45.1%)
$1,100,000 Santa Cruz County(+41.9%)
$1,075,000 Santa Barbara County(+47.2%)
$1,025,000 Orange County(+30.4%)
$931,000 Monterey County(+27.0%)
$929,000 Napa County(+52.3%)
$920,000 Contra Costa County(+34.6%)
$800,000 San Diego County(+18.1%)
$770,750 Ventura County(+15.6%)
$765,000 Sonoma County(+36.4%)
$737,500 San Luis Obispo(+19.4%)
$668,220 Los Angeles County(+26.2%)
$549,000 Solano County(-3.7%)
$535,000 Riverside County(+22.5%)
$412,000 San Bernardino County(+19.7%)

The rest of the state:
https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacen...s/mar2021sales

[Steely Dan]

Well shit, I guess my dream of someday moving to the bay area can finally be put in the coffin

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Well shit, I guess my dream of someday moving to the bay area can finally be put in the coffin

these prices are outrageous.

[Camelback]

The crazy thing about San Mateo County is that it has a population of about 800,000. It's not like it is a small lightly populated rural county with a wealthy enclave skewing the median price.

[Yuri]

I can't even make sense of such high numbers. As you've said, we're talking about big counties here.

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are two most expensive cities in Brazil, and the m² (10.8 sq feet) is on February 2021 at R$ 9,000 (US$ 1,666) and R$ 9,500 (US$ 1,750) respectively.

So, a sizeable 80 m² (860 sq feet) place in those cities would be sold for R$ 730,000 or US$ 136,000 average.

[Camelback]

This modest house in San Bruno, San Mateo County is situated next door to a large freeway interchange and directly under the departing flightpath of SFO has a Zillow estimate range (Zestimate) of almost $1.36M - $1.56M, with a 30-day change of +$33,637!!

https://goo.gl/maps/dRDbKDqLsd5B343N9

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Camelback

This modest house in San Bruno, San Mateo County is situated next door to a large freeway interchange and directly under the departing flightpath of SFO has a Zillow estimate range (Zestimate) of almost $1.36M - $1.56M, with a 30-day change of +$33,637!!

https://goo.gl/maps/dRDbKDqLsd5B343N9

Where are you seeing that price? I see the Zestimate at $940k. Which is still insanely expensive for a 2 bdrm 740 sq ft house in that location.

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Where are you seeing that price? I see the Zestimate at $940k. Which is still insanely expensive for a 2 bdrm 740 sq ft house in that location.

Oh, sorry man. It's the house in the left of the google street image. Sorry about that, I thought I had it centered on the property. It's 913 7th, not 917.

From the imagery, it looks like 917 has a pool and a granny suite/flat and 913 does not. 913 does have more square footage to the house (might be permitted, or un-permitted). If it's un-permitted that additional square footage would most likely have to be torn down if a renovation were to get started there.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Camelback

This modest house in San Bruno, San Mateo County is situated next door to a large freeway interchange and directly under the departing flightpath of SFO has a Zillow estimate range (Zestimate) of almost $1.36M - $1.56M, with a 30-day change of +$33,637!!

https://goo.gl/maps/dRDbKDqLsd5B343N9

That cannot be a worse place. Planes barely miss this house to touchdown. US$ 1 million to live there?!?!

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

That cannot be a worse place. Planes barely miss this house to touchdown. US$ 1 million to live there?!?!

Actually this house is just above where the international planes take off. It's at the very end of the runways 28L and 28R. Planes land on the other side of 28L and 28R, on the Bay side.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Camelback

This modest house in San Bruno, San Mateo County is situated next door to a large freeway interchange and directly under the departing flightpath of SFO has a Zillow estimate range (Zestimate) of almost $1.36M - $1.56M, with a 30-day change of +$33,637!!

https://goo.gl/maps/dRDbKDqLsd5B343N9

For that little POS? Insane.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Camelback

This modest house in San Bruno, San Mateo County is situated next door to a large freeway interchange and directly under the departing flightpath of SFO has a Zillow estimate range (Zestimate) of almost $1.36M - $1.56M, with a 30-day change of +$33,637!!

https://goo.gl/maps/dRDbKDqLsd5B343N9

No way is someone paying so much for that house.

[pj3000]

I can’t fathom that people actually pay those prices for a house like that.

Living in Pittsburgh and part time in Miami, where I bought when it was still cheap, I have no real comprehension of how those types of prices are the norm.

[IMBY]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I can’t fathom that people actually pay those prices for a house like that.

Living in Pittsburgh and part time in Miami, where I bought when it was still cheap, I have no real comprehension of how those types of prices are the norm.

You haven't met Nimby's until you've met them in Califor-Nimby-a! And there's that CA Coastal commission that won't allow high rises along the CA coastline! Does the picture become clearer to you?

[dimondpark]

I dont need to create another thread for this but these are findings of a look i took at how prices have changed up and down California in the last 10 years.

The past decade has been a very, very busy one for home prices in this state. This is data from the California Association of Realtors(car.org).

Here are 2 highlights I noticed:

1. Monterey County had the fastest rising median home price over the past decade, climbing a mindboggling 265%, followed by Contra Costa at 237%, and San Bernardino at 216%.

Monterey and Contra Costa both went from the 200,000s to just shy of $1 million.

2. 2 CA Counties increased their median home price by over $1 million, San Mateo and Santa Clara.


Here is the data:

County Median......March 2011..March 2021...10-Year Change
Marin...................$826,700....$1,627,500...+96.9%......+$800,800
San Francisco......$764,535....$1,755,000..+129.7%.....+$990,465
San Mateo...........$666,950....$1,985,000..+198.0%...+$1,318,050
Santa Clara..........$550,250....$1,600,000..+190.9%...+$1,049,750
Orange.................$523,610....$1,025,000...+95.9%.......+$501,390
Santa Cruz...........$465,000....$1,100,000...+136.5%.....+$634,900
Ventura................$443,920.......$770,750....+73.8%.....+$326,830
Santa Barbara......$436,360.....$1,075,000..+146.5%....+$638,640
Alameda...............$420,420....$1,163,000..+176.9%.....+$742,580
San Diego.............$383,620.......$800,000..+108.8%.....+$416,380
San Luis Obispo....$362,700.......$737,500..+103.5%.....+$374,800
Napa.....................$332,610.......$929,000..+179.8%.....+$596,890
Sonoma................$325,910.......$765,000..+135.3%.....+$439,390
Los Angeles..........$282,170.......$668,220..+136.8%.....+$396,050
El Dorado..............$278,333.......$652,500..+134.5%.....+$374,367
Contra Costa........$273,350.......$920,000..+237.0%.....+$646,650
Monterey..............$255,900.......$931,000..+265.1%.....+$675,100
Placer....................$254,268......$610,000..+149.1%.....+$355,732
Humboldt..............$250,000......$359,000....+43.6%.....+$109,000
San Benito............$247,500.......$765,000..+209.7%.....+$517,500
Yolo.......................$221,153......$530,000..+139.8%.....+$308,847
Nevada.................$211,363.......$530,000..+151.1%....+$308,637
Riverside...............$201,520.......$535,000..+166.1%....+$303,480
Solano...................$193,480.......$549,000..+184.4%....+$355,520
Sacramento..........$167,457.......$485,000..+190.4%....+$317,543
San Joaquin..........$155,698......$457,750...+193.9%....+$302,052
Fresno...................$138,120......$350,000...+153.4%....+$211,880
Stanislaus.............$135,483.......$407,500...+200.7%...+$272,017
Madera.................$133,350.......$365,000...+173.7%...+$231,650
San Bernardino.....$130,690.......$412,000...+216.9%...+$281,310
Kern......................$127,500.......$310,000...+146.5%...+$182,500
Merced.................$115,290........$318,000...+175.2%..+$202,710

CALIFORNIA........$304,770........$758,990...+149.0%...+$454,220

Source: California Association of Realtors

Let this serve as a cautionary tale for other states. KEEP. BUILDING. PLEASE.

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

2. 2 CA Counties increased their median home price by over $1 million, San Mateo and Santa Clara.
[/B]

That is insane! Wow

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Camelback

That is insane! Wow

Well, this is probably the future that awaits much of the country...it's scary imo.

Californians are used to this, we're losing this fight but we're used to it and incomes are fairly decent despite cost of living--what about states where pay sucks and housing prices keep rising and rising and the state offers little to no help. That would suck for the poor and even the middle class.

[Comrade]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I can’t fathom that people actually pay those prices for a house like that.

Living in Pittsburgh and part time in Miami, where I bought when it was still cheap, I have no real comprehension of how those types of prices are the norm.

People likely aren't paying those prices for a house like that. It's an estimate, after all. But that's the problem.

There's just not enough housing to match the demand, so prices are going up because there's something like 3.8 million single-family homes needed to match the overall demand.

So, these people living in this house are sitting on a goldmine but one they can't really do anything with because, as a few people in this thread have said, who the hell would spend that money on that house?

Just because the value is ridiculously high doesn't mean someone is going to buy it and these people, beyond moving out of state, can't just sell their home thinking it'll net them likely triple, if not more, than their current mortgage, because the demand for THAT house (as opposed to just any house in the area) is probably not there. So, they could probably sell it for less than it's worth (maybe a quick sale), still probably make back what their mortgage is, but potentially not enough to actually find a house to move into (especially if the prices are legitimately equal).

And that is partially the cause for such high prices. Unless you're in an area of the country where you can feasibly find cheaper homes outside your city, but staying in the metro, or the region at least, the incentive to sell just isn't there.

Since nowhere in California is cheap anymore, people who own these properties aren't going to be able to find a buyer willing to spend close to $1 million on their house. They might be able to sell it for $600,000 in a quick sale, maybe $700,000, but if you still owe, say, $300,000 on your mortgage, that leaves you $400,000 left as a potential down payment on a new house.

So, now they have to find a house they can afford, especially if they want to remain in the Bay Area, and the options are pretty much non-existent.

The only option would be to downsize considerably, and maybe the owner there WOULD want to do that. But even then, you're still looking at putting up a bulk of your equity into a condo that's likely just one bedroom.

What's the point at that point? You're not likely to sell. It's just not worth the hassle unless you are dead-set on really downsizing and can find a buyer for a quick sale or hope to find someone that will buy your house for a value that makes moving affordable.

And that keeps most people in their homes. Which means fewer homes on the market ... which means those homes on the market are now ridiculously expensive.

I live in Salt Lake. We're experiencing a very similar surge in prices. I owe about $220,000 on my house. Right now, if I were to get an estimate on it, it'd probably come in at over $500,000. The house across the street from me just sold for $800,000 - or nearly $100,000 over the asking price. But the house across the street was also likely bought on a quick sale (the old lady who lived there died and I think her family sold it) and the person who bought it renovated the fuck out of it so the interior is actually really nice and it's a sizable house, so, it's definitely worth the price in the market right now. They then sold it for that $800,000.

My house? I replaced the roof a few years ago. I have a new furnace. Finally got rid of the swamp cooler and added central air and then replaced the water heater, so, there's definitely some improvement. But the house is still old. It still has old problems (the pipes suck, the bathroom needs to be remodeled and the basement, while finished, has no floor (well concrete) and the basic barebones renovation after a massive flood in there a few years ago). So, I know I am not getting $800,000 for this house. I could see myself doing a quick sale and getting $500,000 - maybe. The estimate, just based on the location, would put it up there but the actual quick sale probably wouldn't. Maybe I'd be able to get more on the open market, as it's still a nice house, but regardless, let's say I get $500,000. I can probably STILL buy a house in the suburbs, that's newer and bigger, with the equity after my mortgage is paid off, and not see a significant change in my overall monthly mortgage payment.

i think I could, at least. But that would require this house to go for at least $500,000 and I am skeptical it would. And plus I'm lazy and don't want to move and really, the options right now are just not good. The homes are not worth the move from my neighborhood in the city.

But that kind of feeds the problem.

The only way this corrects itself is if more homes hit the market. The only way more homes will hit the market is if people can afford to sell their homes and move. In California, and maybe even Utah in a couple years, that's not possible unless you're willing to relocate out of state. And for a lot of people, that isn't an option, even with everything being remote now.

So, dimondpark is right - what would help is the federal government doing what they did after World War II and mass-produce homes.

The only drawback to that is, as we saw in the 1950s, it led to white flight. And I suspect we'd see it happen again.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Comrade

People likely aren't paying those prices for a house like that. It's an estimate, after all. But that's the problem.

There's just not enough housing to match the demand, so prices are going up because there's something like 3.8 million single-family homes needed to match the overall demand.

So, these people living in this house are sitting on a goldmine but one they can't really do anything with because, as a few people in this thread have said, who the hell would spend that money on that house?

Just because the value is ridiculously high doesn't mean someone is going to buy it and these people, beyond moving out of state, can't just sell their home thinking it'll net them likely triple, if not more, than their current mortgage, because the demand for THAT house (as opposed to just any house in the area) is probably not there. So, they could probably sell it for less than it's worth (maybe a quick sale), still probably make back what their mortgage is, but potentially not enough to actually find a house to move into (especially if the prices are legitimately equal).

And that is partially the cause for such high prices. Unless you're in an area of the country where you can feasibly find cheaper homes outside your city, but staying in the metro, or the region at least, the incentive to sell just isn't there.

Since nowhere in California is cheap anymore, people who own these properties aren't going to be able to find a buyer willing to spend close to $1 million on their house. They might be able to sell it for $600,000 in a quick sale, maybe $700,000, but if you still owe, say, $300,000 on your mortgage, that leaves you $400,000 left as a potential down payment on a new house.

So, now they have to find a house they can afford, especially if they want to remain in the Bay Area, and the options are pretty much non-existent.

The only option would be to downsize considerably, and maybe the owner there WOULD want to do that. But even then, you're still looking at putting up a bulk of your equity into a condo that's likely just one bedroom.

What's the point at that point? You're not likely to sell. It's just not worth the hassle unless you are dead-set on really downsizing and can find a buyer for a quick sale or hope to find someone that will buy your house for a value that makes moving affordable.

And that keeps most people in their homes. Which means fewer homes on the market ... which means those homes on the market are now ridiculously expensive.

I live in Salt Lake. We're experiencing a very similar surge in prices. I owe about $220,000 on my house. Right now, if I were to get an estimate on it, it'd probably come in at over $500,000. The house across the street from me just sold for $800,000 - or nearly $100,000 over the asking price. But the house across the street was also likely bought on a quick sale (the old lady who lived there died and I think her family sold it) and the person who bought it renovated the fuck out of it so the interior is actually really nice and it's a sizable house, so, it's definitely worth the price in the market right now. They then sold it for that $800,000.

My house? I replaced the roof a few years ago. I have a new furnace. Finally got rid of the swamp cooler and added central air and then replaced the water heater, so, there's definitely some improvement. But the house is still old. It still has old problems (the pipes suck, the bathroom needs to be remodeled and the basement, while finished, has no floor (well concrete) and the basic barebones renovation after a massive flood in there a few years ago). So, I know I am not getting $800,000 for this house. I could see myself doing a quick sale and getting $500,000 - maybe. The estimate, just based on the location, would put it up there but the actual quick sale probably wouldn't. Maybe I'd be able to get more on the open market, as it's still a nice house, but regardless, let's say I get $500,000. I can probably STILL buy a house in the suburbs, that's newer and bigger, with the equity after my mortgage is paid off, and not see a significant change in my overall monthly mortgage payment.

i think I could, at least. But that would require this house to go for at least $500,000 and I am skeptical it would. And plus I'm lazy and don't want to move and really, the options right now are just not good. The homes are not worth the move from my neighborhood in the city.

But that kind of feeds the problem.

The only way this corrects itself is if more homes hit the market. The only way more homes will hit the market is if people can afford to sell their homes and move. In California, and maybe even Utah in a couple years, that's not possible unless you're willing to relocate out of state. And for a lot of people, that isn't an option, even with everything being remote now.

So, dimondpark is right - what would help is the federal government doing what they did after World War II and mass-produce homes.

The only drawback to that is, as we saw in the 1950s, it led to white flight. And I suspect we'd see it happen again.

Utah price increases have been crazy, I've been casually following the market there over the years and what's happened there in the past 5 years or so has been just jawdropping.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Utah price increases have been crazy, I've been casually following the market there over the years and what's happened there in the past 5 years or so has been just jawdropping.

The idea of supply and demand is a simple one to understand but I just do not understand why housing costs are not up at the top of the priority list of things to fix. It should at least be the key issue demanding 110% out of everyone working to fix it on the legislation level.

Because ultimately, the less the masses struggle, the better for the economy and well being of the nation.

Mass housing is needed, and affordable housing and rezoning.