Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan
I think regardless it will be a spectacle in electing a speaker. Personally I expect a Liberal minority government with the Greens propping them up. We are still months out so who really knows what will happen
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Also, even if the PCs get 24 or fewer seats, they'll get the first kick at the can as long as the Liberals have fewer than they do. I doubt any Greens or Liberals would be willing to be Speaker for the PCs, but it's worth mentioning. Liberals would need a commanding minority, 23-24 seats, with 3+ Greens, for any stability. The PCs are probably going to hold ~21 seats in a worst-case scenario, but with a more blue-Tory caucus they could govern with 25 seats. It's going to come down to a very short list of competitive seats, some 3-way.
Like I said up-thread, the PC and Green candidate lists remain extremely unsettled in the Saint John and North Shore areas respectively. Haven't heard a whisper of prospective PC candidates around here. No idea if Coon will actually try to compete up there. He's not nominating very impressive people in other Fredericton ridings or in Saint John.
If I got bonked on the head today, woke up in December, and you told me Higgs was underpolled, again, and won 27 seats, I'd believe it. If you told me Holt got 27 seats off candidate recruitment in Anglo metros, I'd believe it. If you told me Higgs kept 24 seats, Coon won 5, and the Liberals were governing with just 20, I'd believe that too. The only thing I wouldn't believe is either the PCs or the Liberals having less than 20 seats each. This is a base battle election. No wave coming.