Quote:
Originally Posted by goldeneye77
I think the liability issue will be the trickiest one. The current technology is already arguably as safe or safer than the average human driver, although we've set a pretty low bar -- approximately 2 MILLION lives have been lost in the US alone due to motor vehicle accidents in the past 50 years. A mark that not even gun deaths can match over the same time period, which is really saying something.
It's really going to represent a monumental shift over the next 10, 20, 30 years and will have a major impact on where people live and work as commutes will become greatly simplified and parking concerns will be virtually irrelevant. Traffic flow will be vastly improved due to the superior data that the software has at its disposal with regard to the road network, the ability for each car to communicate with one another, and the greater capacity that the existing roads will have due to cars no longer having to waste valuable space for parking.
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I agree about the liability issue, and I have no argument that human drivers are on average, pretty poor.
I don't agree that the current level of technology is all that great, though. Sure, they can build prototype systems at great cost that will work well in most situations, but usually they are being babysat by "drivers" to take over in case there are any problems, and/or used in very controlled situations. We don't really know how well they will operate until they are actually put into the hands of customers who have virtually no knowledge or understanding of how the systems work, and how to problem-solve if they don't.
Additionally, they will have to be built with cost in mind, so they will be affordable to their customers. This will put limitations on the quality of the components/software used, the level of redundant systems, etc. If people can't afford them, nobody will buy them.
Then, they will have to work reliably, day after day while being basically unattended. So that means they can't glitch out (ever seen a computer or phone that does not have some kind of intermittent system glitch?) It would be unacceptable for an unattended car to simply stop in the middle of the road when it glitches out, or in a worst-case scenario - run over a group of pedestrians because of some system or component failure.
True enough, people are not perfect drivers, and all too often cause serious injury or death because of their mistakes or poor judgement. However, autonomous vehicles would not be allowed the level of forgiveness that we grant to other humans who make mistakes. Therein lies the engineering challenge, IMHO.
It will be interesting to see where it all goes, but remember before we get too starry-eyed, all the Buck Rogers type fantasies of the past that indicated that we would all have flying cars by now and so much leisure time because of all the computers and machinery doing our work for us... I'd be happy with the excess leisure time...