PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[City Wide]

Originally Posted by El Duderino

One thing that’s been absent in this autonomous/ride share discussion is the idea of new technology that does not yet exist becoming viable in the nearish future. I’m not suggesting that we’ll be teleporting or using hover boards by 2025, but with the increasing pace of technological breakthroughs, thinking only in these terms narrows the reality of what’s (likely) ahead.

I don’t pretend to know what’s to come, but speaking in all these absolutes is whatever. I have a funny feeling 20 years from now we’ll be living with a bit of a lot of different modes (with increasing stratification based on income and geography).

Depending one ones age, 20 years can mean a lot of change or not so much (meaning the 20 years between 10 and 30 are usually a lot different then from 30 to 50), but thinking back in my life over the last 20 years there's the usual human events like marriage/divorce, jobs, health, politics, and more of this, less of that, but other then communication changes (computers, the internet, and cell phones), I can't say the way the world works has changed that much. Is having 500 TV channels really that big of a change from having 10, just to mention one area of change.
Youth always looks forward to what might be, and age looks backwards on the lost possibilities and dreams.

On this forum I'm surprised that there isn't more conversation about how the industry of building buildings might or should change. Other then changes in curtain wall construction, watching a building going up today isn't all that different from 80 years ago. Yes, today we have poured concrete and longer spans of steel, and welding and bolts instead of rivets, and tower cranes make construction easier, but largely its still a lot of manual labor.

Can the forces behind self driving cars change the construction business?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by City Wide

I can't say the way the world works has changed that much. Is having 500 TV channels really that big of a change from having 10, just to mention one area of change.

Maybe not the world, but I think it's had some impact on Philly.



But it all seriousness, I think the answer is yes and no. When there were only 3 channels, along the lines of what Busy Bee said about cars damaging our cultural health, the fragmentation of media - TV and then, later streaming/Internet - have continued to split what we have in common culturally. Now you can go back to before TV and radio and argue that for the majority of human history, there was no shared content to the same extent as there have been in the last 100 years too, so it really depends on the timescale you're looking at.

Media fragmentation has a lot to do with the current political environment, which in turn does significantly change the way the world works.

Originally Posted by City Wide

Can the forces behind self driving cars change the construction business?

Good question. Maybe cheaper cost of land transport could decrease building costs?

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

No. I have no passion for cars or car culture, and as my signature suggests am well aware of the waste that car oriented development has wreaked on our physical, environmental and cultural health. That said I don't believe there is some paradigm shifting wave that is going to dramatically remake what car ownership in the country looks like outside of a minority market share, probably at most 20% of the US market. That said, I think it is a great thing. A great thing for SOME people most of the time and even more people SOME of the time, BUT is a fools errand to suggest it is going to be anywhere near to universally adopted.

Apparently these people don't ever leave the city. The overwhelming majority of Americans do not live in high density areas and a huge proportion of Americans lives in rural areas or small towns where jobs, shopping and other things are spread out. Cars with the CAPABILITY to drive themselves for extended periods of time are already here and more are coming. That is for sure. People will have the option of driving or not driving depending on the situation. That is much different from people trading in their ability to control their cars for automated taxi services. City dwellers in many cases are out of touch with the reality for other Americans. This notion that you don't store stuff in your car or that everyone travels lightly and can jump from taxi to taxi all day every day is not reflective of reality at all. Especially not in car dependent suburbs and rural areas. People have to BUY whatever is sold- this isn't China where the government could just unilaterally ban regular cars and force folks to accept this. This reminds me of the electric car argument that ignores the low penetration of electric cars in the US. No matter how great electric cars are you need market stimulation to lead to mass adoption. Gas needs to get more expensive and the government needs to get involved in terms of subsidies and tax breaks to drive a mass shift. I saw a presentation the other day where some idiot who knows nothing about cars (and was making predictions about the future) said cars as we know them basically have been the same for 100 years. He lost all credibility but he did speak like one of these pro-future transportation "experts" who honestly thinks there has been no innovation in the auto industry between Henry Ford and Elon Musk.

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Uber does have car seats, I used it all the time. It was fine.

Another point, if driverless is ever fully implemented - you don't need carseats b/c accidents as a thing will be so infinitesimally rare - like dying while flying in an airplane - that the importance of it will no longer be relevant.

I do love a lot of the Philly-posters who clearly think they have a better grasp on the "big idea" of the next 40 years than the people - with billions of dollars at stake - who are actually dreaming and creating them.

A larger point, relax a bit, Dad. Throw your kid in an uber and meet me down at Cantina for a marg!

Yes in 50 years when every last "normal" car has been scrapped what you're saying makes sense. But in the interim decades who is going to put their kids in a car without a carseat (or ride without seatbelts) in an autonomous car that is mixed in with older cars piloted by humans? It would take decades to turnover the entire automotive fleet. also this idea that the only way to stop injuries is to have robots drive cars is a bit of an overstatement. People are already far less likely to die or be hurt than 30-40 years ago due to advances in safety gear. Also, one of the biggest drivers of accidents would be poor weather/road conditions. Any autonomous vehicle that depends on cameras and visibility of lane markers, signs, etc. will be compromised in poor weather which means mishaps can still happen. The only way to be 100% sure nothing bad ever happens in poor conditions would be to have the car programmed to not operate when the parameters for safe operation can't be met. But that's pretty much the same thing as a human driver not driving in poor conditions- you don't crash if you stay home.

[iheartphilly]

^
And, we can be sure that no major car company will do the death kneel because of automonous driving vehicles. Sales of combustion engine and eventually fully electric vehicle will remain strong, I would say for another generation because American's fascination with self-directed operatingc vehicles run very deep in the veins of most of us. Physologically, it might even be a thing where owing and controlling mechanical things such as vehicles provides self-gratification and worth.

[McBane]

As I said before, even if an Uber has a car seat, doesn't make it usable for every family. There's a million variables at play - how many car seats are needed, how they're set up (front facing, rear facing, booster seat). And of course, do I trust that the car seats were installed correctly?

Also, what Ebuilder said. While relying solely on Uber may make perfect sense for residents of certain high density urban centers, the vast majority of Americans rely on a car for every single trip - whether they live in the country, the suburbs, or even auto-centric urban areas (e.g., Northeast Philly, Staten Island, Phoenix, Houston, etc.).

So to say that most people will ditch their cars, seems far fetched. Perhaps it's more accurate to state that most people living in high density urban areas will ditch their cars in favor of Uber. I'd agree with that and it would be interesting to see how that dynamic impacts our built environment, though still remember you'd need to accommodate all those Ubers, delivery trucks (all the online shopping!), and those Luddites who still own their own car.

[Capsule F]

Did this convo shift from self driving cars being a sizable portion of cars on the road to them being every car on the road?

I think folks shifted the convo to say that every car on the road won't be self driving for 40 years...well no shit. However, you could easily expect 10 - 20% of cars on the road to be self driving in 10 years.

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by Capsule F

Did this convo shift from self driving cars being a sizable portion of cars on the road to them being every car on the road?

I think folks shifted the convo to say that every car on the road won't be self driving for 40 years...well no shit. However, you could easily expect 10 - 20% of cars on the road to be self driving in 10 years.

There is no doubt that a high % of cars will have SOME self driving capability within the foreseeable future. The thing is people are talking about the eradication of any manual driving which is a totally different thing. Automakers see self driving features as a luxury to offer buyers who may want to relax on long road trips. Many are working on autonomous vehicles more for taxi/Uber applications. We aren't far from having many autonomous capable vehicles on the road- we are a long way from automakers selling cars that can't be manually driven or controlled. In the interim we are probably going to see more systems like Cadillac's Supercruise- autonomous driving offered within certain parameters- in this case you can only use it on divided highways and you still must stay somewhat focused on the road ahead or it will disengage.

[allovertown]

I think we're ignoring a major demographic when we talk about the future of self driving cars, the low self esteem crowd. How are certain men supposed to feel like they don't have such small penises if they can't tool around in a giant truck or something pointlessly fast and loud.

You think this crowd is giving up their SUVs for a little autonomous car? Good luck with that.

[ePlanningPhila]

Originally Posted by allovertown

I think we're ignoring a major demographic when we talk about the future of self driving cars, the low self esteem crowd. How are certain men supposed to feel like they don't have such small penises if they can't tool around in a giant truck or something pointlessly fast and loud.

You think this crowd is giving up their SUVs for a little autonomous car? Good luck with that.

It will 100% be a 2 headed generational shift. Baby boomers will continue to age and will face mobility challenges in 20 years and autonomous travel will 100% appeal to them.

And then millennials have faced record low levels of car ownership overall of any recent generation and I think you are going to continue to find the desire to own a car continue to be less and less valued with each new generation.


The shift will not happen overnight. But it will 100% happen. How the transition will be fully phased, and in which ways will it impact our built environment should surely be fascinating.

The first Phase of fully autonomous vehicles will not completely shift the business model of car ownership. Many individuals will continue to own cars; that are also autonomous.

[allovertown]

Really cool little development! Has this been posted here yet?

https://hiddencityphila.org/2018/01/...ory-of-wheels/

[ok-ez]

Originally Posted by allovertown

I think we're ignoring a major demographic when we talk about the future of self driving cars, the low self esteem crowd. How are certain men supposed to feel like they don't have such small penises if they can't tool around in a giant truck or something pointlessly fast and loud.

You think this crowd is giving up their SUVs for a little autonomous car? Good luck with that.

these clowns are already driving around with fake engine noise, let them keep that on whatever car they're in https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.0f3655b70a17

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by allovertown

Really cool little development! Has this been posted here yet?

https://hiddencityphila.org/2018/01/...ory-of-wheels/

Very good developer. Their Walnut project is shaping up nicely.

[El Duderino]

^very nice little project. i’m digging the trend of overbuilds in that general area - seems to be a good compromise between maintaining the character and adding some density (when done right).

[summersm343]

Construction at 40th & Pine After Years of Fights and Delays



Read more here:
http://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-phill...-fights-delays

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Construction at 40th & Pine After Years of Fights and Delays



Read more here:
http://www.ocfrealty.com/naked-phill...-fights-delays

This is a good project. I would have liked to a see a mix of apartments and condos. This is in the Penn Alexander catchment. Parents kill to get their kids into school there. It's oversubscribed, and there are no longer guarantees that living in the area gets your kid in. But it's still a big draw and I think condos would have done well if incorporated. Still, a good project.

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by allovertown

I think we're ignoring a major demographic when we talk about the future of self driving cars, the low self esteem crowd. How are certain men supposed to feel like they don't have such small penises if they can't tool around in a giant truck or something pointlessly fast and loud.

You think this crowd is giving up their SUVs for a little autonomous car? Good luck with that.

A majority of americans own either pickups or "SUVS" these days. It's not just men with self esteem problems. That seems like a very simplistic and insulting view of anyone who drives something other than a Prius or Tesla or whatever "enlightened" people think is acceptable to drive these days. Or maybe enlightened people look down on anyone who wants to own a car in general.

[nemesisinphilly]

Does anyone know why this site http://lti.planphilly.com/ has stopped updating?

Anything similar out there to look up issued permits with a map option?

[City Wide]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

This is a good project. I would have liked to a see a mix of apartments and condos. This is in the Penn Alexander catchment. Parents kill to get their kids into school there. It's oversubscribed, and there are no longer guarantees that living in the area gets your kid in. But it's still a big draw and I think condos would have done well if incorporated. Still, a good project.

I know that compared to most of the junk 'student' housing that's been going up in West Philly in the last decade this is a step up. It's still grossly out of scale for the neighborhood and to my eye it looks like a well designed cheap building. A stucco mistake. After what Penn has put the neighborhood through in regards to their ownership of this property, they should be showing a lot more respect and sensitivity. But Penn is Penn and thinks the neighborhood should be thrilled for any scraps it throws west.

Yes, condos would have been an easy sell, but that wouldn't have given Penn the total control that they like.

[iamrobk]

Originally Posted by nemesisinphilly

Does anyone know why this site http://lti.planphilly.com/ has stopped updating?

Anything similar out there to look up issued permits with a map option?

Have you checked out Atlas? It's pretty cool. https://atlas.phila.gov/