PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[Capsule F]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

Let me put it this way, I believe you and I will both be dead before anything close to that happens, if it ever does.

I suppose that is possible if you are 70+ in age.

[Tlphila]

Anyone have insider info on if the Independent Press Building will be condos? Barely any info on project online..

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by Capsule F

I suppose that is possible if you are 70+ in age.

I am 35 and I will bet my left nut that before I die more people will be owning their cars, just like they do now, than sharing them.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I am 35 and I will bet my left nut that before I die more people will be owning their cars, just like they do now, than sharing them.

If I had any interest in acquiring your left nut (I don't), I'd take that bet. It won't be in 10 years, probably not 20, but 30 years for now, I could see a 50/50 split. Things change quicker than you'd expect. Think of technology 30 years ago and how behaviors have shifted drastically.

People didn't dream of having personal computers or cell phones in 1988, let alone the Internet (nobody would guess the impact of online shopping on retailers) or wifi. Now these things are indispensable. If you don't think that 30 years is feasible, try 40 or 50 years and think of how we used technology.

If the economics make automated car share easier and/or the same cost or cheaper than car ownership, you'll see a shift. It's not in the next 5 years but it's coming.

[Busy Bee]

There are multitudes more logistical barriers to widespread car sharing than there is to using a smart phone or buying jeans online. Those things, at least in theory, makes ones life easier. I'm not convinced that sharing a car would be interpreted as making life easier for the majority of the public outside of inhabitants of dense urban cities were a car-free or near car-free lifestyle is a realistic logistical possibility. But hey, I don't need anyone to agree with me. Time will tell, as it does with everything else.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

There are multitudes more logistical barriers to widespread car sharing than there is to using a smart phone or buying jeans online. Those things, at least in theory, makes ones life easier. I'm not convinced that sharing a car would be interpreted as making life easier for the majority of the public outside of inhabitants of dense urban cities were a car-free or near car-free lifestyle is a realistic logistical possibility. But hey, I don't need anyone to agree with me. Time will tell, as it does with everything else.

The argument for making life easier is that you no longer need to deal with car maintenance or insurance costs, etc. In cites, that definitely includes parking too. Additionally, a driverless car lets you multitask with privacy.

I also think the logistics of setting up reliable cellular and cable/fiber optic networks are actually significantly more complex than what would be needed for autonomous cars. I think long distance travel (trucks, maybe buses) will be the early adopters, and agree that sharing them might not work as well in rural areas, but I think people there will own autonomous cars in 30 years or so. Cities make more sense for a share system, but remember the majority of people in the US (and world) live in cities, so you can get to the 50% of cars being autonomous with a significant portion being a share program from cities alone.

But yes, time will tell. If anyone could predict the future with accuracy, they wouldn't need a day job.

[Busy Bee]

And all those points are valid and have merit. But I still believe the AV and carshare contingent are grossly underestimating the staying power of human beings' desire to OWN and operate an automobile for an abundance of emotional reasons: Pride, status, leisure, pleasure. You are not going to reprogram human beings just because the technology is available or it makes more financial sense, as the latter is reinforced every second of every day right in front of our eyes.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

And all those points are valid and have merit. But I still believe the AV and carshare contingent are grossly underestimating the staying power of human beings' desire to OWN and operate an automobile for an abundance of emotional reasons: Pride, status, leisure, pleasure. You are not going to reprogram human beings just because the technology is available or it makes more financial sense, as the latter is reinforced every second of every day right in front of our eyes.

That's a fair point, particularly about carshares and the want for ownership and control. It's not a rational thought process all of the time, despite the high price tag. It is not a small change and the level of resistance you believe society as a whole has to that change is really the basis of what we both think people will be driving in the 2040's. I guess time will tell.

[McBane]

As a dad with two young children, car sharing is not option when I'm with my family. I don't see how technology can overcome the fact that Uber/Lyfts don't have car seats. Even if they did, how can I be assured that the car seats are set up for the age/height/weight of my children? That they are installed correctly? That they have never been involved in an accident? And it's not as if my situation is unique - how many millions of Americans have at least one child in a car seat? So there's that.

And then, echoing Groundhog's arguments - I don't see how Uber or Lyft would make things easier for the average American who lives and works in the suburbs, even if car sharing was less expensive. Hiring an Uber every day to go to and from work - I don't see how that could be cheaper; it certainly wouldn't be easier. And that doesn't even factor the trips people make during lunch or before/after work - groceries, dry cleaning, doctor appointments, etc.

I could see my family eliminating one car if me or my wife took a job in the city and just needed a way to get to and from the train station every day. But we'd still need a car for family outings.

[jsbrook]

I decided to figure out how to post the photos myself. Public Ledger Building permits. Loaded on imageshack. Trying to figure out the next step.

https://imageshack.com/a/Rhll/1

Posted below as actual image but how do I resize? Help!

[jsbrook]

https://imageshack.com/i/pnQUZgnPj

[SEFTA]

Originally Posted by jsbrook

I decided to figure out how to post the photos myself. Public Ledger Building permits. Loaded on imageshack. Trying to figure out the next step.

https://imageshack.com/a/Rhll/1

Posted below as actual image but how do I resize? Help!

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

And all those points are valid and have merit. But I still believe the AV and carshare contingent are grossly underestimating the staying power of human beings' desire to OWN and operate an automobile for an abundance of emotional reasons: Pride, status, leisure, pleasure. You are not going to reprogram human beings just because the technology is available or it makes more financial sense, as the latter is reinforced every second of every day right in front of our eyes.

Exactly. Everyone is operating from the premise that "everyone" hates driving at any given time. Some do, some don't and most people specifically hate driving in heavy traffic. I also think it's crazy to ignore all the stuff (including carseats) people leave in the cars day to day. Living by taxi means you can't do any of that- whatever you need must be on your person every time you leave the house. And traveling with small kids would be a nightmare in an all taxi world.

[Groundhog]

I think the two ideas here that are getting merged together: self-driving vehicles and car share programs.

My view is that self-driving cars are coming. Some people will own their own because of life. In particularly urban areas, you will see a very significant increase in car sharing with self-driving cars because they can come door to door and function at all times of day without needing to wait for a driver, more similar to a bikeshare.

Whether you own or do car share, self-driving cars are coming.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I am 35 and I will bet my left nut that before I die more people will be owning their cars, just like they do now, than sharing them.

Serious question, do you sell cars for a living?

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by McBane

As a dad with two young children, car sharing is not option when I'm with my family. I don't see how technology can overcome the fact that Uber/Lyfts don't have car seats. Even if they did, how can I be assured that the car seats are set up for the age/height/weight of my children? That they are installed correctly? That they have never been involved in an accident? And it's not as if my situation is unique - how many millions of Americans have at least one child in a car seat? So there's that.

Uber does have car seats, I used it all the time. It was fine.

Another point, if driverless is ever fully implemented - you don't need carseats b/c accidents as a thing will be so infinitesimally rare - like dying while flying in an airplane - that the importance of it will no longer be relevant.

I do love a lot of the Philly-posters who clearly think they have a better grasp on the "big idea" of the next 40 years than the people - with billions of dollars at stake - who are actually dreaming and creating them.

A larger point, relax a bit, Dad. Throw your kid in an uber and meet me down at Cantina for a marg!

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Uber does have car seats, I used it all the time. It was fine.

Another point, if driverless is ever fully implemented - you don't need carseats b/c accidents as a thing will be so infinitesimally rare - like dying while flying in an airplane - that the importance of it will no longer be relevant.

I do love a lot of the Philly-posters who clearly think they have a better grasp on the "big idea" of the next 40 years than the people - with billions of dollars at stake - who are actually dreaming and creating them.

A larger point, relax a bit, Dad. Throw your kid in an uber and meet me down at Cantina for a marg!

Seriously. 30 years ago my car seat was an extended arm with a clenched fist across the chest from mom.

Today kids need to be in car or booster seats until they hit puberty.

[Busy Bee]

^Don't be ridiculous. Kids stay in a carseat until they are a certain size, not age, and I shouldn't need to tell anyone a mothers stretched arm ('stopping short') was is and never will be as safe as a proper car seat. To suggest otherwise is just silly and sounds like one of those pathetic 'back when i was young everything was right in the world' memes that each generation perpetuates on the next.

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by Londonee

Serious question, do you sell cars for a living?

No. I have no passion for cars or car culture, and as my signature suggests am well aware of the waste that car oriented development has wreaked on our physical, environmental and cultural health. That said I don't believe there is some paradigm shifting wave that is going to dramatically remake what car ownership in the country looks like outside of a minority market share, probably at most 20% of the US market. That said, I think it is a great thing. A great thing for SOME people most of the time and even more people SOME of the time, BUT is a fools errand to suggest it is going to be anywhere near to universally adopted.

[El Duderino]

One thing that’s been absent in this autonomous/ride share discussion is the idea of new technology that does not yet exist becoming viable in the nearish future. I’m not suggesting that we’ll be teleporting or using hover boards by 2025, but with the increasing pace of technological breakthroughs, thinking only in these terms narrows the reality of what’s (likely) ahead.

I don’t pretend to know what’s to come, but speaking in all these absolutes is whatever. I have a funny feeling 20 years from now we’ll be living with a bit of a lot of different modes (with increasing stratification based on income and geography).