Using data from ElectionsNB for the 2020 election
# of electors, 2013 riding distribution -> 2020 election
New Brunswick: 552,183 -> 569,862
Northern: 90,700 -> 88,745
Miramichi: 33,415 -> 33,953
Southeast*: 159,605 -> 169,338
Southern: 122,176 -> 124,927
Capital: 90,320 -> 96,489
Upper RV: 55,944 -> 56,410
Change in electors, 2013 -> 2020
Northern -1,955
Miramichi +538
Southeast* +9,733
Southern +2,751
Capital +6,169
Upper RV +466
*Elections NB splits Gagetown-Petitcodiac between Southeast and Capital regions for the sake of riding allocation. I give all of G-P to Southeast in these numbers for the sake of simplicity.
So...the 2013 riding allocation had a riding quotient of 11,269, for which ridings could have a number of electors +/- 5% that quotient. Using the 2020 numbers, that quotient rises to 11,629. Thus, the riding allocations to each region will change for the next redistribution of ridings as follows.
Riding allocation, 2013 -> 2020
Northern 8.04 -> 7.63
Miramichi 2.97 -> 2.92
Southeast 13.67 -> 14.56
Southern 10.84 -> 10.74
Capital 8.50 -> 8.40
Upper RV 4.96 -> 4.85
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that the Southeast portion of NB (ie, the Moncton area) will get an added seat for the next redistribution of ridings, almost directly at the expense of Northern NB. I haven't done any poll-by-poll counting yet but both Shediac ridings are far above the presumed 5% riding quotient (17% and 12.5%, respectively), so I imagine a new riding goes there or there is some substantial shifting around. Moncton NW and Moncton SW also added a lot of electors, so a new riding may go in there as well.
Some other thoughts:
- With how the electors have shifted, presuming we hold onto 49 seats and a 5% deviancy in riding elector counts, it looks like Memramcook-Tantramar can remain effectively the exact same, with perhaps some poll absorbtion from Shediac-Beaubassin (say, adding Cap-Pele to M-T).
- Moncton Centre lost quite a few electors and will likely have to expand slightly to accommodate.
- The boundaries of Dieppe will likely stay as they are. Moncton East will have to shrink. Riverview may stay the same, but what's interesting is that Albert is above the 2020 quotient, so it will likely have to shed Salisbury and its western sections as Riverview continues to add more and more people into this riding. It's possible that Albert becomes something like Riverview-Hillsborough in the next redistribution.
- All of the Southern ridings can remain relatively unchanged. Lancaster may need to add some area as it lost 759 electors over the past seven years.
- I haven't been able to figure out how Saint Croix added nearly 800 electors between 2013 and 2020.
- After Shediac Bay-Dieppe, New Maryland-Sunbury is second for most electors in 2020, and thus is the second highest above 2020's riding quotient. I think Fredericton Junction & Tracy are removed from this riding in the future, so it's possible we simply get a New Maryland riding in the future.
- Fredericton South and North are both within quotient for 2020, with North being almost exactly at the quotient figure.
- Fredericton-York has seen a lot of growth so it may need to shed Stanley in the future. Depending on how things shake out in Northern NB, it's possible we see some Frankenstein riding made up of former Southwest Miramichi, stretching from Miramichi, through Blackville and Doaktown, to include Stanley. Or not.
- I'm not sure what the best course of action would be for the North to lose a riding. I think the easiest may be the merge the two Bathurst ridings to go back to a singular urban Bathurst riding, whereby you split off the west and east sections of Bathurst West-Beresford and Bathurst East-Nepisiguit to surrounding ridings. Those two are currently the two smallest ridings in terms of electors.
- Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou needs probably 500-750 electors added to it for the riding to last another decade cycle. If you move 750 electors from neighbouring Caraquet then suddenly that riding needs 1,000 electors to make quotient and presumed population shifting, and etc. etc.. It'll be difficult to sort all of that out.
- Another solution could be to lop off Kedgwick/St-Quentin from Restigouche West and all the entire western portion of that riding to the Madawaska/Victoria ridings. In this scenario you'd have to move Carleton-Victoria further south, presumably fixing some of the language-related problems that come with drawing that riding up.
- Or they just make a new map and all of this is moot!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas
The polls for Fred-Grand Lake are interesting. Near the city, it looks like it's a 3-way race between PC/PA and Green. It's only when you get to the outskirts that PA starts winning more.
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Similar to 2018, where Grand Lake and parts inbetween voted heavily PA, whereas suburban Fredericton took a bit of convincing and stuck PC & Lib. Now that area is more Green than Liberal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonHiseler
Memramcook-Tantramar is as expected, Sackville area goes Green, while Memramcook goes Liberal. Interesting to see the eastern tip of that riding have the PCs lead.
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If you squint hard enough you can see eastern sections of Shediac-Beaubassin becoming more and more Green, partly due to language demographics shifting in this area but also down to a continued Green presence in Memramcook-Tantramar. From Dupuis Corner eastward the Liberals only hit 50% in one poll, whereas they were easily hitting 60% in Shediac proper. In Cap-Pele the Greens got roughly 35% of the vote.