DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Stonemans_rowJ]

Couple thoughts on previous posts. I've house hacked my first two houses ("youngish" urbanite age 36) and there are lots of work arounds (full disclosure am also now a realtor with my own "practice")


1. Fannie Mae increased DTI requirements up to 50%. If you make 150k with no debt you can buy a lot of house.

2. Consider a 3,5, or 7 year ARM. It's unlikely you'll keep your first place longer than that.

3. MI does suck. In my rolodex are local lenders who do 0-3% down portfolio loans, no MI. Some restrictions apply though. Loan Depot does 40 year mortgages first ten years interest only. There's lots of money out there and lots of banks etc looking to lend. You need to think outside the box.

4. current rates are about 4-4.25% for "top tier best execution" 30 year fixed not 3.5%

5. There's always corrections and peaks and valleys, just like the stock market. Over the long term (I usually recommend at least a 7 year horizon), its less about when you buy but if you buy.

6. No doubt there will be a correction, most likely in the higher price ranges, and moreso on attached housing. Single Family homes are much different than condos and townhouse. Lots if nuance to the market.

7. Mortgage rates and the availability of mortgages are the great x-factor to appreciation.

8. there IS a paradigm shift. absolutely 100%. Doesn't mean "millennials," Gen Y, and "x-ennials" won't move to the suburbs, but will not do so in as high of numbers and will do so later in life. This means greater demand on the core. Nothing is going to change that. I'm looking at Stapleton myself now (gasp) because I have two children in a 2 bedroom house in Mayfair.

9. Not all suburbs are equal. Some are connected, with the attributes millennials are looking for, some are not.

10. Find a cheap realtor who is smart and your fiduciary. It's like financial advisors. Vanguard beats active management for a fraction of the price. Your wealth will thank you.

So much nuance, but there will be a correction. There will be winners and losers.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by seventwenty

Ken, I think in one of your Infill comments sections you mentioned that the Market Street Station project may have a groundbreaking this month. Any updates you can share?

I haven't heard anything more recently.

[RyanD]

Here's a fun one from this weekend... Arapahoe Square:

[Matt]

Originally Posted by RyanD

Here's a fun one from this weekend... Arapahoe Square:

AWESOME PHOTO Ryan!!! I'm noticing that Denver's "publicity" view is shifting away from the classic City Park vantage point and is migrating to the direct east, and especially the Highlands area. I think your photo proves why.

[Denver Dweller]

http://www.businessden.com/2017/08/1...669#newsletter

[CastleScott]

AWESOME PHOTO Ryan!!! I'm noticing that Denver's "publicity" view is shifting away from the classic City Park vantage point and is migrating to the direct east, and especially the Highlands area. I think your photo proves why.

Matt you and Ryan both have a phenomenal eye for Denver photography-that angle looking from the north to a bit SW is awesome with the Rampart Range and Pike's Peak looming in the background which is a refreshing look from the classic City Park and Mt Evans in the background angle. I wonder how the skyline would look say looking NW from the southeast looking northwest with Longs Peak in the background (I think Ryan took a pic from a spot east of Washington Park sometime ago with that angle)?

Man I kinda miss Colorado-been away since April 8th 2015..

[pablosan]

A slightly older photo

[CastleScott]

^ You have a great photo eye too pablosan! Did you happen to take those from a higher floor on the Loews Hotel (the Darth Vader tower).

[Fritzdude]

Nice to see Arapahoe Square starting to fill in.

[pablosan]

Originally Posted by CastleScott

^ You have a great photo eye too pablosan! Did you happen to take those from a higher floor on the Loews Hotel (the Darth Vader tower).

Fairly close to the Darth Vader Tower.

[CastleScott]

Fairly close to the Darth Vader Tower.

Cool!!

[Curtis Park]

Originally Posted by pablosan

Fairly close to the Darth Vader Tower.

Looks like it must be from the roof of 950 S Cherry. Great shot!

[CherryCreek]

Have we reached peak prices for Denver residential? Is the market headed down?

I think a correction is in order, and prices should/must fall. How much of a "correction" might we see? 5% ? 10% or more?

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/10...rop-july-2017/

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Have we reached peak prices for Denver residential? Is the market headed down?

I think a correction is in order, and prices should/must fall. How much of a "correction" might we see? 5% ? 10% or more?

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/10...rop-july-2017/

I think the answer will be clearer come next spring, when markets are scheduled to ramp back up as buyers come back online for a summer closing.

[Robert.hampton]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Have we reached peak prices for Denver residential? Is the market headed down?

I think a correction is in order, and prices should/must fall. How much of a "correction" might we see? 5% ? 10% or more?

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/10...rop-july-2017/

I feel like I have seen multiple articles in the Denver Post predicting this peak by highlighting month over month prices. But month over month prices arent really very indicative of the market --- year over year median sales price was still up over 8% in July. That isnt a slow down at all, that is what the market has been doing all year.

I think we will definitely see a leveling off as interest rates rise, but I can't see a correction as long as unemployment is at 2%. I think it is more likely we see the low unemployment push wages up which will help suppor tthe housing market.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Have we reached peak prices for Denver residential? Is the market headed down?

I think a correction is in order, and prices should/must fall. How much of a "correction" might we see? 5% ? 10% or more?

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/10...rop-july-2017/

On the flip side many Denver renters are growing restless with continued high prices and stagnant wage growth. Per this article 2 out of 3 are considering leaving Denver for less expensive markets. I know this has definitely happened in my circle, more than half of my friends from 5 years ago have left Denver.

“A lot of young renters are happy to move to Denver, Seattle or San Francisco for a job opportunity when they don’t have to buy a home or don’t have a family to care for,” said Sydney Bennet, research associate with Apartment List, a provide of apartment listings.

But as they get older, reality sets in and they realize they can’t afford to settle down. That pattern, long common in big cities along the coast, is starting to play out more in popular places like Denver where rents and home prices have risen sharply."

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/15...housing-costs/

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by BG918

On the flip side many Denver renters are growing restless with continued high prices and stagnant wage growth. Per this article 2 out of 3 are considering leaving Denver for less expensive markets. I know this has definitely happened in my circle, more than half of my friends from 5 years ago have left Denver.

“A lot of young renters are happy to move to Denver, Seattle or San Francisco for a job opportunity when they don’t have to buy a home or don’t have a family to care for,” said Sydney Bennet, research associate with Apartment List, a provide of apartment listings.

But as they get older, reality sets in and they realize they can’t afford to settle down. That pattern, long common in big cities along the coast, is starting to play out more in popular places like Denver where rents and home prices have risen sharply."

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/15...housing-costs/

It only makes sense that many would leave. The ability of Americans to move from city to city to follow opportunity is a strength, and for many "opportunity" is going to be a mathematical calculation based on jobs available vs. cost of living.

I think Denver is a great city but many millennials may now look around at the cost of living here and say "yea, sure, but it's not THAT great." This will alleviate pressures on housing costs and slow growth, I suspect. I think that's mostly a good thing - the torrid pace of the last five years was not healthy. Slowing things down and letting the city catch its breath and the new construction now underway or planned helping to alleviate the housing issues and making the city more affordable, over time.

[jbssfelix]

The Denver City Council on Monday unanimously approved a bill that authorizes the creation of an urban redevelopment area at the Emily Griffith Opportunity School at 1250 Welton St. in downtown Denver.

The 2.5-acre site was approved for historic designation in 2016 and was acquired by Denver hotel developer Stonebridge Cos. earlier this year.

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by BG918

On the flip side many Denver renters are growing restless with continued high prices and stagnant wage growth. Per this article 2 out of 3 are considering leaving Denver for less expensive markets. I know this has definitely happened in my circle, more than half of my friends from 5 years ago have left Denver.

“A lot of young renters are happy to move to Denver, Seattle or San Francisco for a job opportunity when they don’t have to buy a home or don’t have a family to care for,” said Sydney Bennet, research associate with Apartment List, a provide of apartment listings.

But as they get older, reality sets in and they realize they can’t afford to settle down. That pattern, long common in big cities along the coast, is starting to play out more in popular places like Denver where rents and home prices have risen sharply."

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/08/15...housing-costs/

Until you actually read the report from Apartment List and realize that Denver is rated much better compared to other cities than the Post makes it sound:
https://www.apartmentlist.com/renton...renters-moving

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by mojiferous

Until you actually read the report from Apartment List and realize that Denver is rated much better compared to other cities than the Post makes it sound:
https://www.apartmentlist.com/renton...renters-moving

Good point, LoL. Also, simply asking 20 somethings about their future plans and treating that like gospel truth of what is likely to actually happen in their future is pretty questionable. Looking at the maps on the page listed, it would seem that most millennials everywhere plan to move to another city! Lol.