BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[Bcasey25raptor]

Poll tonight shows tightening and the NDP are limited on which seats they can swing.

I believe courtenay-comox will swing back to the liberals, but Skeena will go back to the NDP.

Swing ridings of Richmond Queensborough, Vancouver false creek, and Coquitlam burke mountain in Metro vancouver will swing NDP, throw in Fraser Nicola and Horgan has his majority, but I think anything greater than this will be extremely difficult to do unless Horgan's NDP wins by more than 5% in the polls.

Vote projection prediction is
39% Liberal, 43% NDP, 16% Green

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Off-topic, but did anybody else not get their mail-in ballot yet?

I voted in person at Advance Voting last night at 7:30. No line, went straight to the poll. Easy.

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Poll tonight shows tightening and the NDP are limited on which seats they can swing.

I believe courtenay-comox will swing back to the liberals, but Skeena will go back to the NDP.

Swing ridings of Richmond Queensborough, Vancouver false creek, and Coquitlam burke mountain in Metro vancouver will swing NDP, throw in Fraser Nicola and Horgan has his majority, but I think anything greater than this will be extremely difficult to do unless Horgan's NDP wins by more than 5% in the polls.

Vote projection prediction is
39% Liberal, 43% NDP, 16% Green

[MG]

Columbia River-Revelstoke, Surrey-Cloverdale and Boundary-Similkameen are also potential pickups for the NDP, imo. I agree that Courtney-Comox will likely flip back to the liberals as there is no conservative candidate to split the vote this time around.

[logicbomb]

Latest polls showing a shrinking gap. Signs that the race is going to be tigher than expected. Know a few fringe voters that ended up voting Liberal instead of Green.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Latest polls showing a shrinking gap. Signs that the race is going to be tigher than expected. Know a few fringe voters that ended up voting Liberal instead of Green.

Yes I think Green support will be lower this time around, and they may look towards the Liberals.

Worth remembering the Libs got more votes and 2 more seats than the NDP last time. The NDP have been running the show with less seats.

[whatnext]

From Macleans this week:

The sinking B.C. Liberal campaign: 338Canada election projection
Philippe J. Fournier: Barring a major polling error, John Horgan's NDP is projected to win a comfortable majority in the B.C. election this month

By Philippe J. Fournier
October 16, 2020

..A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute was released this morning and asked B.C. respondents who had won the leader’s debate. Among respondents who watched the debate, 29 per cent believe Horgan was the winner (including half of NDP supporters). Green leader Sonia Furstenau came second with 23 per cent. B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, who really could have benefited the most from a strong debate performance, came last with only 15 per cent.

Here is the latest 338Canada British Columbia projection update. You may find all B.C. polls listed on this page.

Unsurprisingly, the B.C. NDP leads the way with an average of just under 50 per cent in the popular vote projection. With such numbers, the NDP stands comfortably in majority territory....

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/338...eral-campaign/

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by whatnext

From Macleans this week:

The sinking B.C. Liberal campaign: 338Canada election projection
Philippe J. Fournier: Barring a major polling error, John Horgan's NDP is projected to win a comfortable majority in the B.C. election this month

By Philippe J. Fournier
October 16, 2020

..A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute was released this morning and asked B.C. respondents who had won the leader’s debate. Among respondents who watched the debate, 29 per cent believe Horgan was the winner (including half of NDP supporters). Green leader Sonia Furstenau came second with 23 per cent. B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, who really could have benefited the most from a strong debate performance, came last with only 15 per cent.

Here is the latest 338Canada British Columbia projection update. You may find all B.C. polls listed on this page.

Unsurprisingly, the B.C. NDP leads the way with an average of just under 50 per cent in the popular vote projection. With such numbers, the NDP stands comfortably in majority territory....

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/338...eral-campaign/

October 16th is too early to call it, polls are looking similar to 2013, this could go down to the wire.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

October 16th is too early to call it, polls are looking similar to 2013, this could go down to the wire.

The personalities involved are on different parties. Wilkinson is a dud, much like Dix in 2013.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

October 16th is too early to call it, polls are looking similar to 2013, this could go down to the wire.

I can't tell if you're misleading yourself or trying to get Liberal hopes up and NDP voters worried and ready to vote even harder

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by chowhou

I can't tell if you're misleading yourself or trying to get Liberal hopes up and NDP voters worried and ready to vote even harder

More likely the latter tbh, if it's perceived as a close race, NDP voters won't rest on the laurels.

[hollywoodnorth]

after the racist gaff on the weekend .... with some luck and the grace of god Skeena will go liberal.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

after the racist gaff on the weekend .... with some luck and the grace of god Skeena will go liberal.

LOL, God has nothing to do with the BC Liberal Party.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

after the racist gaff on the weekend .... with some luck and the grace of god Skeena will go liberal.

Would be interesting to see what would happen if that occurs and we have another ndp lead minority. I wonder if this time the Greens will still work with the ndp, or if they will refuse. Polling shows most green voters want an ndp minority with them holding the balance of power so I'd find it shocking of sonia refuses tow ork with a minority NDP lead government.

[svlt]

Last day to vote in advance polling tomorrow. Super easy this afternoon, very low traffic.

[whatnext]

An interesting aspect of this election that hasn't received much coverage. Pretty clear to see who the BC Liberals were serving.

Douglas Todd: Finally, the party's over for no-limit political donations in B.C.
Opinion: B.C. Election 2020 is the first fought under much stricter rules about fundraising
Author of the article: Douglas Todd
Publishing date: Oct 21, 2020

..in late 2017 the new B.C. NDP government moved to ban corporate, union and foreign donations. Now only individual offerings are allowed, capped at $1,253 a person.

The reform has led to cuts in staff and advertising budgets for the NDP, Liberals and Greens. It’s part of the reason — in addition to COVID-19 restrictions — that voters have not been so barraged with partisan marketing in print, radio, TV and social media.

Donations to the NDP have dropped by almost half, mostly because unions can no longer donate. Last year the NDP accepted $3.7 million in donations compared to $6.2 million in 2017.

The B.C. Liberals have had a plunge of roughly 80 per cent in donations, mostly because corporations can no longer give money. Last year, the Liberals accepted $2.9 million in donations compared to $15.3 million in 2017.

The B.C. Greens have also experienced a hefty drop, of about 65 per cent. The party took in $642,000 last year compared to $1.8 million in 2017...

....Travis found through his dogged research that the Liberals drew in $119 million in political donations from corporations between 2005 and the last election. The NDP had received $12 million from unions.

Today’s lower donation amounts don’t only affect advertising budgets during the campaign, which has spending limits. They also limit the kind of marketing that can occur before the campaign officially begins.

One of the anomalies that drew the attention of The New York Times was the way B.C. politicians were raking in hundreds of thousands of dollars from foreign corporations. The threat to sovereignty was profound.

As far as Travis was justifiably concerned, each foreign donation contravened a basic democratic principle: “If you’re not a citizen, you don’t have a right to vote. And you shouldn’t have the right to donate to a political party.”...


https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...nations-in-b-c

[Nites]

I went to vote at 5:30 today. About 5-6 min lineup. In and out pretty quick.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by whatnext

LOL, God has nothing to do with the BC Liberal Party.

I'd be willing to bet the average liberal voter goes to church more often than the average NDP voter.

so if you want to get technical. I think god has a lot more to do with the Libs than the NDP

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

I'd be willing to bet the average liberal voter goes to church more often than the average NDP voter.

so if you want to get technical. I think god has a lot more to do with the Libs than the NDP

Too bad it’s the 2020s and not the 1950s.

Also, most people aren’t going to church, period.

[rofina]

God or not, NDP got my vote today.

[dreambrother808]

And it’s over already...