Calgary Proposals

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by Meikkhaell

I'm unsure whether or not this belongs in this forum but, despite the economic downturn,
what would the likelyhood of Calgary seeing a 1000+ ft structure proposed be in the next 10-20 years?
If I understood what I read a while back correctly, in the last economic downturn everyone thought no large structures would be built for 10+ years after that. But here we are with the Bow, EAP, Brookfield Place, Telus Sky, City Centre, etc. So in my eyes it is a possibility.

Any thoughts?

2008 was a blip. It never really developed as a downturn here to most people's surprise. What's happening now is a very different situation. The last one was a debt bubble popping in which Canadian banks losses were manageable (to a degree) This one is directly related to oil. It still could go away as fast as the last one. I just don't share the blind optimism of others in these parts even if they guessed right the last time (although EAP 1 was still a bust for its owners)

[tomthumb2]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

2008 was a blip. It never really developed as a downturn here to most people's surprise. What's happening now is a very different situation. The last one was a debt bubble popping in which Canadian banks losses were manageable (to a degree) This one is directly related to oil. It still could go away as fast as the last one. I just don't share the blind optimism of others in these parts even if they guessed right the last time (although EAP 1 was still a bust for its owners)

I agree 100%. This downturn definitely has a different feel to it. I know tons of people who've been laid off and some who are actually leaving because of it which is pretty sad. Dodged a bullet myself (for the meantime anyway)and hoping I can ride this one out. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

So yeah count me as one of those who doesn't see 1000+ for quite some time.

[MrBigStuff]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

2008 was a blip. It never really developed as a downturn here to most people's surprise. What's happening now is a very different situation. The last one was a debt bubble popping in which Canadian banks losses were manageable (to a degree) This one is directly related to oil. It still could go away as fast as the last one. I just don't share the blind optimism of others in these parts even if they guessed right the last time (although EAP 1 was still a bust for its owners)

Too many anti business governments around - getting in the way of prosperity
Need I name names???

[artvandelay]

It's funny, many of the Toronto based asset managers have this perspective (more consistent with Whippersnapper) that it's the apocalypse here in Calgary with respect to the office market, while local investors who have been through these oil slumps before have a much more optimistic view in the medium to long term.

With 8 million sft available (plus ghost vacancy) and 3 million under construction, things are certainly going to get worse before they get better, but we know that Calgary has the ability to absorb 2 to 3 million sft per year in a bull market.

[Deepstar]

Originally Posted by MrBigStuff

Too many anti business governments around - getting in the way of prosperity
Need I name names???

Or other provinces getting in the way. One of the downsides of Canada is the lack of unity. They all hate on Alberta, except when it's equalization payment time, but they are willing to be assholes and shoot themselves in the foot if it makes things difficult for Alberta.

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by MrBigStuff

Too many anti business governments around - getting in the way of prosperity
Need I name names???

I replied to this in the Calgary Economy section.

[MrBigStuff]

Originally Posted by Deepstar

Or other provinces getting in the way. One of the downsides of Canada is the lack of unity. They all hate on Alberta, except when it's equalization payment time, but they are willing to be assholes and shoot themselves in the foot if it makes things difficult for Alberta.

I would guess that one of those provinces is between Ontario and New Brunswick.
As for the transfer payments - they sure do like our oil money ( right now - of which there isn't much ). I'm hoping that we won't have to keep dishing out money - when there's not much coming in.

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by MrBigStuff

I would guess that one of those provinces is between Ontario and New Brunswick.
As for the transfer payments - they sure do like our oil money ( right now - of which there isn't much ). I'm hoping that we won't have to keep dishing out money - when there's not much coming in.

I would read up on how equalization payments work. It's surprising how few people in Alberta understand them, while we are pretty much the only province who talks about them (for the reasons you speak of).

Equalization payments are a product of federal taxes, no provincial dollars (or provincial royalties) are included. It is a program that uses federal income, sales, and excise taxes. Because the tax rates are national, there is no bias against Alberta per say, federal rates are identical everywhere for all taxes that are included. It's hard to get more fair than that.

In reality, Alberta cannot opt out of equalization payments because it doesn't pay equalization. In terms of equalization, provinces don't actually matter. Ontario, is a net receiver, but by far contributes the most to the equalization program due to it's size and proportion of overall federal tax contribution. So in effect, equalization is more about wealthy individuals regardless of location (therefore more income and sales taxes) paying into a fund that gets distributed to less wealthy people.

The only thing that "screws" Alberta (if that's what we think is happening) is that Alberta is unusually wealthy. Our per capita spending (GST receipts) are 40% higher than the Canadian average and our income (despite the recent recession) is still far higher than the Canadian average. Hell, even our unemployment rate, is only now equalling the Canadian average.

We have a far way to fall before we approach anything close to being a receiving position for equalization. The public discourse in Alberta really has no idea how good the province has had it for so long.

[Bokimon]

I think Albertan's might be the most entitled per capita in the whole country. We really do have no idea how good we have had for all this time and many, Many folks just don't see things on a reality basis, just the Alberta oil fantasy, downtown still has boatloads of people working and making good money. Thought it sucks that many towers are now empty and tens of thousands have been laid off, those who are remaining, I wouldn't doubt that there have been promotions and pay raises spreading decently wide.

That being said, there are still opportunities for growth and behind the scenes, several sites around downtown and suburban city are under the microscope for redevelopment of multi phase, multi tower projects..

One of them I hope is: THE GATEWAY!

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Bokimon

I think Albertan's might be the most entitled per capita in the whole country. We really do have no idea how good we have had for all this time and many, Many folks just don't see things on a reality basis, just the Alberta oil fantasy, downtown still has boatloads of people working and making good money. Thought it sucks that many towers are now empty and tens of thousands have been laid off, those who are remaining, I wouldn't doubt that there have been promotions and pay raises spreading decently wide.

That being said, there are still opportunities for growth and behind the scenes, several sites around downtown and suburban city are under the microscope for redevelopment of multi phase, multi tower projects..

One of them I hope is: THE GATEWAY!

That fantasy proposal still has life in it? I've been hearing about the mystical Gateway for almost as long as I've been on SSP. With the current climate I can't see us getting any supertalls for a looooooong time.

[speedog]

COOP 16th Avenue redevelopment proposal - link.

[VerticalCity]

Originally Posted by speedog

COOP 16th Avenue redevelopment proposal - link.

Oh please don't follow this design! Storefronts should be oriented to 16th avenue and balconies to the park/residential streets. A hybrid between strip-mall and low-rise residential just screams tacky and ready to be lambasted in less than 10 years as terrible design...

[Doug]

Originally Posted by MasterG

I would read up on how equalization payments work. It's surprising how few people in Alberta understand them, while we are pretty much the only province who talks about them (for the reasons you speak of).

Equalization payments are a product of federal taxes, no provincial dollars (or provincial royalties) are included. It is a program that uses federal income, sales, and excise taxes. Because the tax rates are national, there is no bias against Alberta per say, federal rates are identical everywhere for all taxes that are included. It's hard to get more fair than that.

In reality, Alberta cannot opt out of equalization payments because it doesn't pay equalization. In terms of equalization, provinces don't actually matter. Ontario, is a net receiver, but by far contributes the most to the equalization program due to it's size and proportion of overall federal tax contribution. So in effect, equalization is more about wealthy individuals regardless of location (therefore more income and sales taxes) paying into a fund that gets distributed to less wealthy people.

The only thing that "screws" Alberta (if that's what we think is happening) is that Alberta is unusually wealthy. Our per capita spending (GST receipts) are 40% higher than the Canadian average and our income (despite the recent recession) is still far higher than the Canadian average. Hell, even our unemployment rate, is only now equalling the Canadian average.

We have a far way to fall before we approach anything close to being a receiving position for equalization. The public discourse in Alberta really has no idea how good the province has had it for so long.

Alberta taxpayers pay more in federal taxes due to higher incomes, but also get less back in federal transfers for health and education. "Ending equalization" would move to the same per capita transfer federal transfer to every province. Even better would be and end to federal transfers and the the federal government vacating the tax room.

[dbp]

Originally Posted by Doug

Alberta taxpayers pay more in federal taxes due to higher incomes, but also get less back in federal transfers for health and education. "Ending equalization" would move to the same per capita transfer federal transfer to every province. Even better would be and end to federal transfers and the the federal government vacating the tax room.

I learned a lot today. Thank you both Master G and Doug! Much appreciated!!!

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Doug

Alberta taxpayers pay more in federal taxes due to higher incomes, but also get less back in federal transfers for health and education. "Ending equalization" would move to the same per capita transfer federal transfer to every province. Even better would be and end to federal transfers and the the federal government vacating the tax room.

Albertans to not individually pay more federal tax than anyone else. Someone making the same amount any other place in the country would pay the same. Personal tax formulas are the same no matter where you live, and I think the spin you've made is misleading. True, if anyone makes more money, they pay more tax. I wish I was paying a million in tax, because that meant I made more.

Regarding getting back less for health and education than we gave for federal tax, that goes without saying. The feds use the money on federal concerns - like the military for example.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by VerticalCity

Oh please don't follow this design! Storefronts should be oriented to 16th avenue and balconies to the park/residential streets. A hybrid between strip-mall and low-rise residential just screams tacky and ready to be lambasted in less than 10 years as terrible design...

In this case that doesn't bother me. 16th ave is a commuter road. The actual buildings look really blah though. Stucco boxes.

[milomilo]

I don't know if it is just me but I can't match up the images of the development to the overview map, it looks like the design of the renderings is different to the map? Either way as long as the materials aren't crappy I think it looks pretty good although I have my doubts the vehicle circulation will work well at all with that much going on, and I wouldn't want to be the guy driving the delivery truck in there!

Regardless, 16th has a hell of a long way to go and needs about a hundred similar sized developments all the way along.

[Deepstar]

He didn't put a spin on it. He said Albertans pay more in federal tax due to higher incomes. The average incomes of Albertans is higher than the other provinces. There's nothing mis-leading about it.

Originally Posted by suburbia

Albertans to not individually pay more federal tax than anyone else. Someone making the same amount any other place in the country would pay the same. Personal tax formulas are the same no matter where you live, and I think the spin you've made is misleading. True, if anyone makes more money, they pay more tax. I wish I was paying a million in tax, because that meant I made more.

Regarding getting back less for health and education than we gave for federal tax, that goes without saying. The feds use the money on federal concerns - like the military for example.

[MrBigStuff]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

In this case that doesn't bother me. 16th ave is a commuter road. The actual buildings look really blah though. Stucco boxes.

Instead of 5 or 6 shades of grey - they should have a little more colour in there - like University City - put some live colours in there

[Doug]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Albertans to not individually pay more federal tax than anyone else. Someone making the same amount any other place in the country would pay the same. Personal tax formulas are the same no matter where you live, and I think the spin you've made is misleading. True, if anyone makes more money, they pay more tax. I wish I was paying a million in tax, because that meant I made more.

Regarding getting back less for health and education than we gave for federal tax, that goes without saying. The feds use the money on federal concerns - like the military for example.

I mean Alberta receives less in per capita direct Federal funding than do other Provinces. It is double equalization.