COVID-19 Manitoba

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by esquire

Looking at it differently, could this just be the expected result of loosened restrictions? We knew that cases would likely rise a bit once things started to reopen gradually as they did recently. We're up by fewer than 100 cases a day from the most recent low point a little over a month ago...

We're starting to see exponential growth and the ICU numbers will follow in 10 days-two weeks. This is not numbers rising a bit, the plateau we had was the result of loose restrictions (what you're talking about) as we did not push the number to 0 under anything we could actually call CODE RED.

We're still playing checkers while the variants are chess. Improper PPE for general public and people in congregate settings. In my workplace (congregate health setting) we are just starting to talk about N95's and we'll likely have an outbreak of variant well before that, 2 suspected cases already. Clinical staff are vaccinated, contractors are not, patients are not.

[Danny D Oh]

R0 number is highest it has ever been other than our first wave which wasn't really a wave at all, just the people returning from abroad. Higher than our "second wave" in October. Big outbreaks ahead. Hope we got enough vaccines out to avoid ICU chaos but doesn't seem likely.

[wags_in_the_peg]

the "most vulnerable" hopefully all had vaccine, so although case number rise, hopefully deaths stay at 0-2 like they have been past couple weeks.

[cheswick]

I would think some tighter restrictions are coming this week. Two week average on par with hallowe'en on the uptick of wave two (which you can see went completely off the charts shortly after). Two week over two week rates are up 65% province wide, 80% Winnipeg.

Most vulnerable are vaccinated so there will likely be a lower hospitalization rate with this wave (but I've also read that these new variants are more severe for younger groupings; hospitalization rates 10 times higher for 20 somethings so who knows).

[esquire]

Cracked 500 new cases today... here we go again with the restrictions, a buck short and a day late as usual.

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by esquire

Cracked 500 new cases today... here we go again with the restrictions, a buck short and a day late as usual.

Roussin et al are in a tough spot. You can't know if restrictions work or not without time. Considering the law says they have to impose the least restrictions necessary not sure what more can be done except wait to see if what they've done is enough. With that said, I'm no rocket scientist and it seemed pretty apparent a month ago this is where we were heading. I think I even said as much.

[GreyGarden]

We’re struggling to get people vaccinated compared to the rest of the country. I don’t know how much of it has to do with government incompetence versus people who just don’t want to get vaccinated. Compared by province – percentage of population who have received at least one dose:

Quebec: 39.58%
Saskatchewan: 37.84%
Ontario: 37.31%
BC: 36.91%
Manitoba: 33.31%
Alberta: 32.17%

Source: https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

I really wasn’t expecting Saskatchewan to be near the top of the list. Good on them. Given they’re even more conservative than Manitoba, it makes me think our poor vaccine numbers are a result of policy and not the population.

I feel like the MB PC’s hatred for the Federal Liberals have seeped into their policy. Everything they do seems to be coloured by their desire to say something bad about Trudeau. It’s pretty pathetic.

[esquire]

^ For what it's worth, we're in the same ballpark as those other provinces... it would be a different story if we only had half as many vaccinated on a per capita basis as Ontario, for instance. We could catch up pretty quickly.

I do agree about Pallister in particular seemingly being driven by a need to make Trudeau look bad above all else. Even Ford can take the high road sometimes, yet Pallister cannot.

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by GreyGarden

We’re struggling to get people vaccinated compared to the rest of the country. I don’t know how much of it has to do with government incompetence versus people who just don’t want to get vaccinated. Compared by province – percentage of population who have received at least one dose:

Quebec: 39.58%
Saskatchewan: 37.84%
Ontario: 37.31%
BC: 36.91%
Manitoba: 33.31%
Alberta: 32.17%

Source: https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

I really wasn’t expecting Saskatchewan to be near the top of the list. Good on them. Given they’re even more conservative than Manitoba, it makes me think our poor vaccine numbers are a result of policy and not the population.

I feel like the MB PC’s hatred for the Federal Liberals have seeped into their policy. Everything they do seems to be coloured by their desire to say something bad about Trudeau. It’s pretty pathetic.

Not really an apples to apples comparison. Quebec for example didn't give any second doses, meanwhile Manitoba was giving second doses for a while. Also Manitoba lags at reporting First Nation numbers as the First Nations partners are solely responsible there. Which is like in the 5% of total doses outstanding. But as Esquire said, all provinces are in the same ball park anyway. Given differences in reporting, you can't make much of anything from the figures.

[pspeid]

I think a big difference between vaccination efforts in Saskatchewan vs Manitoba is the presence of a drive-through vaccination site in Regina (at the Brandt centre). For some reason the drive-through site tended to allow vaccinations in age groups younger than those allowed at the time for appointments. For example, people age 45 + may have needed appointments but the drive-through might vaccinate people 40+. It didn't make much sense, but it seemed to get a lot of people vaccinated quickly (until vaccines ran out, then they would pause the drive-through until there was more supply). They are starting second doses for the general public May 17, beginning with age 85+, then dropping.

[GreyGarden]

That's great. I saw in terms of percentage of dose delivered that have been administered Saskatchewan is at 90.5%. We're at 77% and Ontario is at 83.4%. But as Cheswick noted above, that number may be impacted by our lag in reporting re First Nations.

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by pspeid

I think a big difference between vaccination efforts in Saskatchewan vs Manitoba is the presence of a drive-through vaccination site in Regina (at the Brandt centre). For some reason the drive-through site tended to allow vaccinations in age groups younger than those allowed at the time for appointments. For example, people age 45 + may have needed appointments but the drive-through might vaccinate people 40+. It didn't make much sense, but it seemed to get a lot of people vaccinated quickly (until vaccines ran out, then they would pause the drive-through until there was more supply). They are starting second doses for the general public May 17, beginning with age 85+, then dropping.

Yeah, as of today 35+ can get shots anywhere, and tomorrow it's 32+.

[BrannyMuffin]

Originally Posted by pspeid

I think a big difference between vaccination efforts in Saskatchewan vs Manitoba is the presence of a drive-through vaccination site in Regina (at the Brandt centre). For some reason the drive-through site tended to allow vaccinations in age groups younger than those allowed at the time for appointments. For example, people age 45 + may have needed appointments but the drive-through might vaccinate people 40+. It didn't make much sense, but it seemed to get a lot of people vaccinated quickly (until vaccines ran out, then they would pause the drive-through until there was more supply). They are starting second doses for the general public May 17, beginning with age 85+, then dropping.

The reason for the age differences was to be able to distribute vaccine effectively. They sent Pfizer to drive through and AstraZeneca to appointments because of the age restrictions on AstraZeneca. I think it was just easier to manage the supply that way.

[blueandgoldguy]

We are setting new records for ICU cases (80) and positive % cases of COVID in Winnipeg (15.1%) today. The next few weeks will be really rough even as daily cases are likely to continue to decrease. I wonder if we will see the province introduce further restrictions like stay-at-home orders?

[GreyGarden]

MB had to send two ICU patients out of province to Thunder Bay...

[DancingDuck]

Hearing that announcement today will be of over 600 cases and a "full lockdown"

[esquire]

Originally Posted by DancingDuck

Hearing that announcement today will be of over 600 cases and a "full lockdown"

Best May Long ever!!!!

[Biff]

603 today, likely cancel camping for near future, tougher restrictions for May Long

[dmacc]

Not that it's relevant but do you think this number has something to do with the data issue yesterday? Maybe a backlog of reported cases and not a new trend going forward.

[Biff]

I don't think they would be making new restrictions today if it was just a backlog issue. They are running out of hospital capacity.