SA and Austin look to cash in on megaregion game plan

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I agree it will never be a single metro, but your statement is false. The city propers stretch for many miles towards one another, and you then have Buda, Kyle, San Marcos, New Braunfels, Selma, Schertz...

I'm not sure how long it's been since you have been in the area, but all of those towns have exploded in population. New Braunfels is over 100K, San Marcos is over 70K, Kyle is almost 60K.

The two counties between Austin and San Antonio, Hays and Comal, have been amongst the fastest growing in the nation.

Yeah I was generalizing but that corridor is still pretty rural and sparse in huge chunks between New Braunfels and San Marcos and San Marcos and Kyle. New Braunfels' growth is just insane. I was last there shortly before Covid (2019?) and it's added probably 20k since then.

[jtown,man]

I used to commute to Texas State from San Antonio 3 times a week.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

I used to commute to Texas State from San Antonio 3 times a week.

I used to commute from Pflugerville to the Riverwalk 6 days/week.

[theOGalexd]

I can't see SA/Austin becoming an MSA, but maybe a CSA down the line with how much New Braunfels + Hays County are booming. I'm not 100% sure how it works, but someone commuting from NB to Kyle/San Marcos or reverse would qualify, no?

There's a ton of migration from Austin to SA so I wonder how that will factor in going forward. If anything, I see more people lumping it together as one region. They're very different cities though, nothing like DFW.

[JoninATX]

I don't see the Austin/ San Antonio region being as massive (spread out) as DFW do to it's geography. I can predict that sprawl will continue to expand which will create a continuous line of dense urban/suburban sprawl from San Antonio up north towards Waco, as you can see in this image from NASA.

Other than Galveston being labeled in Beaumont, it's a good quality image.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

Crap lining the freeway between the two cities does not even remotely make it a "metroplex."

Look, I understand and agree with what you said… however, very few people are saying that it is already a metroplex. What they are saying is that it is an emerging metroplex, meaning “in the process of becoming.” That’s an important distinction you are failing to see.

Let me submit to you a rival graphic (and some data) that can simultaneously tell you the story of where we have been, where we are, and where we are going.

First, the data (2060 TDC projections):

Capital Region
Travis: 2,252,137
Williamson: 1,682,556

Alamo Region
Bexar: 3,102,720
Wilson: 73,304
Atascosa: 64,960
Medina: 61,719
Frio: 21,623

Mid Region
Hays: 1,003,130
Comal: 584,380
Guadalupe: 387,281
Caldwell: 75,583
Gonzales: 16,865
Blanco: 11,518

Base Region
Bell: 509,836
Coryell: 86,111
Lampasas: 23,542

North Region
McLennan: 354,573
Falls: 11,633

East Region
Bastrop: 223,711
Fayette: 23,121
Milam: 21,037
Lee: 18,062

Highland Region
Burnet: 70,323
Llano: 25,729
San Saba: 4,035
Mason: 3,661

West Region
Kendall: 111,448
Kerr: 63,589
Gillespie: 33,419
Bandera: 22,586
Kimble: 3,313
Real: 1,187

That’s approximately 11 million people centered around four main cities (San Antonio, Austin, Killeen, and Waco). I personally think it’ll take decades longer to get there, but a couple of factors to note:

The region’s geography is inherently less hospitable to clean-cut development than anywhere else in Texas, being both more rugged and more environmentally sensitive simultaneously. That will result in a patchwork of development stitching the region together, with formerly secondary nodes becoming more prominent (San Marcos, New Braunfels, etc.) as they anchor services necessary to support a large exurban population. By design, this will be somewhat denser east of 35 and not dense west of it. It won’t matter, though, as literally everything in this map will likely be dense enough to count as urban by the census bureau in 2060 (even if hardly any of it is as dense as you’d expect a mega-city to be):




Note: the empty black circles are protected lands. More land is likely to end up preserved in the interim.

It may never function as a single employment area, its too large a geography for that, but what megacities do? Very few. Most are multipolar.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Austin and San Antonio will never be a single MSA, nor combined into a CSA

However, for the sake of discussion there are some interesting points to consider.

These are two of the fastest growing metros in the country, and have been for sometime. 100K annual increase in population is common.

The two counties between them, Hays and Comal, are some of the fastest growing in the nation. The towns between them, Kyle, San Marcos, and New Braunfels in particular, have experienced explosive growth.

I do not believe there is enough commuting between the two to ever be a single metro, but anectodally speaking I know there is a whole of traveling between the two for work, but primarily for entertainment. Having another major city 90 minutes, more or less depending on location, and their ammenities is nice. This is especially true for those between the two cities, such as in San Marcos where it really is just a hop, skip, and a jump into either city.

As far as the creation of a CSA, I actually believe it is much more likely the Austin-Killeen CSA could one day be formed. This would add about half a million to Austin's metro.

I can definitely see Waco/Killeen/Temple (Mclennan and Bell Counties) forming a CSA with Austin. Especially as towns like Bruceville-Eddy, Lorena, Troy, Jarrell and Salado continue to grow and expand.

[Paul in S.A TX]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

Crap lining the freeway between the two cities does not even remotely make it a "metroplex."

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Thanks for your contribution! I'm not seeing anyone comparing the current, or future Austin to San Antonio corridor to DFW, though.

And what you're referring to crap lining the freeway is about half a dozen cities (Cibolo, Schertz, Selma, New Braunfels, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda) containing hundreds of thousands of people. There's an airport which is the FAA designated reliever airport for both AUS and SAT (San Marcos Regional) and a major university (Texas State University) with tens of thousands of students.

The three counties you drive through (Guadalupe, Comal, and Hays) on I-35 between Travis and Bexar are home to 662,868 people, up from 264,633 in the 2000 census.

The Austin and San Antonio regions are also connected by the US 281 and TX 130 corridors bringing counties such as Caldwell and Blanco into the mix.

In the coming decades these areas are expected to continue to grow rapidly. Planning and coordinating between them for infrastructure and economic development is the responsible thing to do.

In conclusion I will reiterate no one informed on the region believes it will ever resemble DFW. However, it can not be disputed that this is an area experiencing explosive growth, and will continue to emerge as a major urban conurbation in this country.

Dismissing it as "crap along the highway" is a ridiculous take. But again, thanks for providing some satellite imagery!

The Miami CSA straddles interstate 95 for about 140 miles from Homestead, Fl to Vero Beach and contains 6.1 million people. This CSA formed along the coastline and is nothing like the DFW CSA as far as the layout of the urbanized area. Nonetheless, it is defined as a one unified statistical area.

The Austin- San Antonio Corridor which is simillar in urbanized layout which was formed decades ago includes 8 counties that straddle interstate 35 and the Texas 130 in a linear fashion which starts in Seguin( metro SA) and northward towards Willamson County which is the northenmost county of the Austin MSA.

According to the SA-Austin Corridor Council the region covers 6,731 square miles and stretches for 126 miles from Bexar to Williamson county and has over 5 million people currently and is projected to swell to 8 million people by 2040. In comparison, The DFW CSA covers 14,126 square miles and contains 8.1 million people.

In conclusion, the S.A./Austin corridor has the population base first and foremost, but only time will tell when commuting patterns and the other requirements for this urban conglomeration to be defined as one unified statistical area. I feel is is definitely a possibility in coming decades.

[Paul in S.A TX]

I haven't posted in here for a long time and need to contact admin. I don't understand why I am being blocked from editing my post? I didn't see any errors and see some now and can't edit!

[R1070]

Originally Posted by Paul in S.A TX

The Miami CSA straddles interstate 95 for about 140 miles from Homestead, Fl to Vero Beach and contains 6.1 million people. This CSA formed along the coastline and is nothing like the DFW CSA as far as the layout of the urbanized area. Nonetheless, it is defined as a one unified statistical area.

The Austin- San Antonio Corridor which is simillar in urbanized layout which was formed decades ago includes 8 counties that straddle interstate 35 and the Texas 130 in a linear fashion which starts in Seguin( metro SA) and northward towards Willamson County which is the northenmost county of the Austin MSA.

According to the SA-Austin Corridor Council the region covers 6,731 square miles and stretches for 126 miles from Bexar to Williamson county and has over 5 million people currently and is projected to swell to 8 million people by 2040. In comparison, The DFW CSA covers 14,126 square miles and contains 8.1 million people.

In conclusion, the S.A./Austin corridor has the population base first and foremost, but only time will tell when commuting patterns and the other requirements for this urban conglomeration to be defined as one unified statistical area. I feel is is definitely a possibility in coming decades.

In DFW the MSA has 8.1 million as of last year. The CSA is even larger.