The One Million Club

[Taeolas]

Looking at this population list, the 4 Atlantic provinces are the only provinces under a million in population.

Based on 2011 numbers, Nova Scotia is at 921k, New Brunswick is at 751k, Newfoundland and Labrador is 514k and PEI is 140k.

So, while predictions based on growth rates are a crap shoot at the best of times, when do you think each province will crack the million club? (OK PEI will probably be lucky to ever crack the half million club to be honest)

I know overall the number is meaningless, but it is a big psychological number. And really, the provincial governments, especially NS and NB, should use it as a growth goal target.

NS is close enough that it can probably reach the million point in a few decades if it put the effort into it.

NB will have a much harder time reach it, especially with its economic predicament. But maybe within a hundred years, hopefully sooner, we could see that milestone reached (Especially once Freddy gets into CMA territory in the next 6 years. 3 cities on the national stats scene will hopefully attract attention)

Any thoughts on trying to reach a million pop?

Or is it just a useless milestone that doesn't mean anything?

[MonctonRad]

NS is the only province with a legitimate chance of reaching one million in my lifetime, but this is improbable unless there is strong immigration into the HRM from out of province.

Our populations are too elderly and our birthrates are too low to allow for this milestone to be reached without significant immigration. Personally, I think we'll be lucky to hold our own.

[Scarface]

It is just a useless milestone that doesn't mean anything.

But on a side note if the provinces really wanted to up provincial numbers to the millions+ Residents. They should look at Employment, Education, and infrastructure in the province.

On a personal note my family from out of province come, and visit but always say they would not want to live here.

[mylesmalley]

This is going to depress the hell out of you, but check this study from StatCan. Basically, none of the 4 Atlantic provinces will see 1 million people before 2038 under any of the growth (or shrinking) models shown.

We need to drastically increase our intake of immigrants to offset our rapidly ageing populations.

It seemed crazy at the time, but Shawn Graham's 100,000 people by 2022 plan was pretty much exactly what we need to do.

[Taeolas]

Very true, and very sad.

NS is close enough that they *should* take this opportunity to rejuvenate their population.

Start a "Million by 2030" program to encourage immigration (both from the ROC and from beyond) and do what they can to pull new blood in.

NB is too far from that goal for any such program to gain traction; and we're aging in the wrong direction to get closer naturally sadly. Still a smart government would try to set growth targets so the long term would get there, even if they don't have any official pushes to reach there now. (maybe 800k by 2030 might be attainable with a push, especially if NS is doing a similar push)

[kwajo]

NB desperately needs better immigration, the province is staid and stale and needs a huge injection of new immigrants to put some life back into it. I know it may be unpopular with some, but for the long term good of the province we need to push hard for higher refugee limits, better urban support to foster retention of our existing temporary migrant workers and greater housing allotments & programmes for newcomers.

[q12]

2015 Populations numbers:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo02a-eng.htm

Nova Scotia
943,000

New Brunswick
753,900

Newfoundland and Labrador
527,800

Prince Edward Island
146,400

Nova Scotia needs an increase of over 50,000 to hit the million mark which is possible, but it will take a lot of immigrants.

Halifax's growth is expected to increase with a strong economy, but it would still need a lot more immigrants and the rural bleeding in the areas furthest from Halifax would have to slow at some point.

[Taeolas]

So 2011, NS was 921k and in 2015 it's now at 943k. ~22k folk in 4 years.

With that sort of trend, NS could crack the million in a decade. Of course that's a completely gut feel estimate that has no real basis on reality. But if the provincial government put its heart into it, they could probably pull off a Million by 2025 type push to lure people to the province.

NB has basically stagnated, so we're stuck in a rut. Maybe if Saint John can shake off its doldrums and start growing decently again we'll start climbing again; but really, we need a major immigration pulse across the board. Maybe we can take a few thousand of those Syrian refugees to start things going?

[Scarface]

I'm all for immigration, and migrant workers if it's done properly. As for the Temporary Foreign Workers program (Temporary Migrant Worker) to many business owners took advantage of the program making a large stink. People where upset, and rightfully so. A large number of employees where fired for things they had not done from what I know and replaced with foreign workers, and then as soon as migrant workers where being sent back to there countries of origin employers where willing to hire back there old employees at lower pay rates.

[Taeolas]

BUMP

I was skimming the back posts, looking for some other threads, and spotted this one.

Man does this show how things have changed. 7 years ago we were thinking of "decades" for NS to reach 1M and maybe within a century for NB to get there....

7 years later, NS is over the 1M mark, and NB's got a realistic chance to reach it within decades. (Apparently my gut in post #8 was better than I expected).

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

This is going to depress the hell out of you, but check this study from StatCan. Basically, none of the 4 Atlantic provinces will see 1 million people before 2038 under any of the growth (or shrinking) models shown.

We need to drastically increase our intake of immigrants to offset our rapidly ageing populations.

It seemed crazy at the time, but Shawn Graham's 100,000 people by 2022 plan was pretty much exactly what we need to do.

This comment aged like milk Nova Scotia and New Brunswick both over the highest model prediction, and 16 years ahead of schedule.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

BUMP

I was skimming the back posts, looking for some other threads, and spotted this one.

Man does this show how things have changed. 7 years ago we were thinking of "decades" for NS to reach 1M and maybe within a century for NB to get there....

7 years later, NS is over the 1M mark, and NB's got a realistic chance to reach it within decades. (Apparently my gut in post #8 was better than I expected).

I can safely say I contributed +2 to the NB population as of 2019!

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

This comment aged like milk Nova Scotia and New Brunswick both over the highest model prediction, and 16 years ahead of schedule.

And, contrary to my post earlier on in this thread, I might still be very much alive when NB hits the one million mark (~2038).

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

This comment aged like milk Nova Scotia and New Brunswick both over the highest model prediction, and 16 years ahead of schedule.

To be fair, your comment about vastly increasing the amount of immigration into the provinces was correct.

We were all just pessimistic about the governments (Federal and Provincial) doing the changes needed to lure immigrants into our provinces.

Not only did they manage to turn on the immigration taps, they managed to chock them open at almost full blast

[someone123]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

This comment aged like milk Nova Scotia and New Brunswick both over the highest model prediction, and 16 years ahead of schedule.

I used to look at old Statistics Canada projections available in print in university libraries. They were really pessimistic about Atlantic Canada specifically and very inaccurate, going back to the 60's and 70's. I assume if you challenged these people would produce a range of tropes about the region and why it's destined to struggle for all time while every other part of Canada grows.

If you look in the Canada section statistics thread you'll see people debating about 2100 or 3000 predictions, and nobody knows what will happen 5-10 years out (e.g. nuclear war a month from now and huge numbers of people die). There is no good way to predict political, economic, and migration changes that dominate the outcomes. Nor is it easy to predict future changes in fertility. You can run the numbers and say what will happen if current conditions hold but they rarely do for more than a few years.