YVR And Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[LeftCoaster]

Was out at YVR this week for a pick-up and was a bit early, took a drive down the north arm road and noticed the new alignment of the road is already near complete. I didn't know it was that far along (or even started for that matter). YVR is going to be able to get its industrial developments on that side going pretty soon. I'd imagine given their proximity the airport, Vancouver and the 99 they will be a hot commodity.

Also over on A.net a rumour of a rather colourful airline considering launching Vancouver...
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/busines...e-4721748.html

I could see a 3xPW YVR-SGN making a lot of sense as a launch, looking to build the route to daily over time. VN would be smart to get in soon while the Chinese airlines are still handcuffed and AC has no planes to launch the route.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

if Westjet can do Calgary><FCO even seasonally, surely YVR><FCO would work, even seasonally.

WestJet is using Calgary as a mini super connector, while AC does that for Europe from Toronto. WestJet also has a contract with at least one of the cruise operators, and that has helped buy a big bunch of capacity to Europe on their planes to de-risk the flights. It isn't as simple as O&D.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

WestJet is using Calgary as a mini super connector, while AC does that for Europe from Toronto. WestJet also has a contract with at least one of the cruise operators, and that has helped buy a big bunch of capacity to Europe on their planes to de-risk the flights. It isn't as simple as O&D.

Thank you for the clarification. / It is just too bad that Vancouver cannot be fitted in on a route to FCO ... somehow. // I guess that's hoping for too much.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Thank you for the clarification. / It is just too bad that Vancouver cannot be fitted in on a route to FCO ... somehow. // I guess that's hoping for too much.

I don't know man I'd rather YYC had an IST flight like YVR rather than FCO lol

[LeftCoaster]

I would assume the next new route to Europe from YVR would be either BCN or FCO, but new routes to Europe from YVR seem incredibly low in ACs priority list. Even if we do get a frame for Europe flying, I'd think AC takes a run at CDG again rather than launching a new route.

We may get some love from ITA if the Lufthansa merger happens, but that is still a ways off if it even goes forward.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by hehehe

I don't know man I'd rather YYC had an IST flight like YVR rather than FCO lol

There are definitely more than a few routes I'm happy YVR has over FCO, but that is still a nice one, and a route I'm sure YVR could support which is probably the source of the longing... that and always wanting what we don't already have!

[owenf]

I personally don't think we will see any new European destinations for the time being. If anything, we will continue to get incremental frequency/aircraft upgauges both in summer and winter season (AF is daily 787 throughout W24, compared to 5 weekly W23, and BA bringing back LGW services a few weeks earlier and increasing from 6x weekly last summer to daily this summer).

It's a shame AC dropped YVR-ZRH, but I guess Edelweiss is picking up the slack. The real kicker is if we can begin to sustain European routes year round or continue increasing frequencies, ex. YVR-MUC while SEA-MUC is already year round *sigh*; YVR-ZRH & YVR-DUB year round, or FI increasing YVR-KEF from 4x weekly as another example.

Across the Pacific, on some days Philippine and EVA are upgauging aircraft to YVR in S24 to HD 77W, along with Korean, Fiji and ZIPAIR frequency increases.

Me personally, I just want some eye-popping news like Seattle has been getting lately, such as getting 3 new airlines on TPE + MNL expansion this winter. Hopefully it comes in the form of VN announcing SGN-YVR...fingers crossed.

[owenf]

Originally Posted by hehehe

I don't know man I'd rather YYC had an IST flight like YVR rather than FCO lol

Speaking of this, I saw on the Canada Airport thread that TK applied and was given one extra weekly frequency to YYZ this summer bringing YYZ-IST to 7/wk. I wonder if Turkish would consider doing the same for YVR since IMO YVR can definitely sustain more than that (TK sends their 77Ws here as proof of that, also TK is Star Alliance), or also TK petitioning the Canadian govt for rights to YYC.

I wonder if one of the reasons why TK increased SEA to 10 weekly was because of some spillage from YVR on days that IST-YVR does not operate.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by owenf

Me personally, I just want some eye-popping news like Seattle has been getting lately, such as getting 3 new airlines on TPE + MNL expansion this winter. Hopefully it comes in the form of VN announcing SGN-YVR...fingers crossed.

Yes! I too want some of those "eye-popping new routes" you mention. / First off, don't we have the market to make Munich year-round? Then, regarding ZRH, would Swiss Air Lines be interested in that, do you think? And could / would they make it year-round?
// YVR's European roster is mostly in NW Europe, Britain, and Alpine Europe (MUC, ZRH). // LeftCoaster mentioned BCN. Great. But wouldn't that only be summer seasonal? Could we have crack at Lisbon, even if only seasonally at first. (If AC wouldn't, maybe TAP would.)
// YVR seems to wait for AC to initiate routes, like CDG (especially when AF seems to be making a real success out of that one). // I mentioned the current concentration of Euro-destinations being in NW Europe and Britain. I would so love a route announcement for one (hopefully more) Southern European destinations. (Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Athens ...)
Oh, and regarding VN coming to town later on, they are apparently equally considering SEA-TAC as well, so they are still outpacing us in most areas, the only region currently in the purview of YVR being Oceania, with Fiji, Auckland, Brsbane, Sydney, and perhaps one magic day, Melbourne once again. (SFO and LAX have all that, but except for holiday oriented PPT, SEA has none of Australia-NZ .... yet)

[owenf]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Yes! I too want some of those "eye-popping new routes" you mention. / First off, don't we have the market to make Munich year-round? Then, regarding ZRH, would Swiss Air Lines be interested in that, do you think? And could / would they make it year-round?
// YVR's European roster is mostly in NW Europe, Britain, and Alpine Europe (MUC, ZRH). // LeftCoaster mentioned BCN. Great. But wouldn't that only be summer seasonal? Could we have crack at Lisbon, even if only seasonally at first. (If AC wouldn't, maybe TAP would.)
// YVR seems to wait for AC to initiate routes, like CDG (especially when AF seems to be making a real success out of that one). // I mentioned the current concentration of Euro-destinations being in NW Europe and Britain. I would so love a route announcement for one (hopefully more) Southern European destinations. (Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Athens ...)
Oh, and regarding VN coming to town later on, they are apparently equally considering SEA-TAC as well, so they are still outpacing us in most areas, the only region currently in the purview of YVR being Oceania, with Fiji, Auckland, Brsbane, Sydney, and perhaps one magic day, Melbourne once again. (SFO and LAX have all that, but except for holiday oriented PPT, SEA has none of Australia-NZ .... yet)

I think MUC year round is a matter of when, not if. I think I mentioned somewhere before that YVR-MUC was year round in W22 at 3 weekly...why that was the case I have no idea. Especially since we have daily MUC service for seven months of the year and no service for the other five, I hope year round comes soon, I feel like 3 weekly would suffice like in W22.

As for ZRH, since Edelweiss as Swiss's leisure subsidiary, has committed to flying their A350s here starting next year, I fear ZRH will remain summer seasonal for the time being since they are establishing their leisure carrier here for the peak summer months. If Swiss thought that YVR was a more premium/business market with year round demand, they would put their A330s more consistently throughout the year, instead of running daily A350s for 2 1/2 months. Last year however they did use lower capacity Swiss A330s for a few weeks in July. Such is the seasonality of the Canadian aviation market.

Like MUC, YVR-MEL on AC is just a matter of time. AC has said it themselves that they are looking to return.

It also doesn't help that a lot of YVR-originating passengers transit through Calgary onto WestJet 787s to Europe, a lot of our demand goes through there. I believe WS is extending BCN flights later into November. Those flights are very popular, likely stimulated by connecting traffic (a good chunk from YVR/lower mainland/rest of BC I presume!!!)

Hopefully when the hail mary AC B78X come online, and AC A333s stick around then maybe AC could launch seasonal YVR-BCN/FCO. But that would be 2 years away at least.

[trofirhen]

Thank you for that clarification. It helped me fill in a lot of gaps. We just have to wait it out, and then, as you imply, something will "give," and we will get a couple of those routes we wanted.

[s211]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I'd think AC takes a run at CDG again rather than launching a new route.

I was not aware that AC used to fly nonstop to Paris.

I wonder if AC would rather continue to route people through Montreal and Toronto and keep those loads high.

I'd prefer the nonstop, and yet wonder what AC might consider optimal for itself.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by owenf

I think MUC year round is a matter of when, not if.

I agree. Both YUL (LH) and YYZ (AC, + summer seasonal LH) have year round to MUC, and year round YVR would make sense as well.

Honestly, converting a lot of these summer seasonal routes to year round should be more of a priority for YVR, if you ask me, than getting new service.

Originally Posted by hehehe

I don't know man I'd rather YYC had an IST flight like YVR rather than FCO lol

Canada-Turkey bilateral is maxed out on the Turkish end.

They are limited to 9x weekly frequencies east of the Ontario/Manitoba border, and 3x weekly west (stupid, if you ask me, but it is what it is.) This being said, if that restriction wasn't there, they could very well have used all 12x frequencies to YYZ/YUL. The latest (temporary) increase at YYZ is proof they want more access out east.

You'll see TK daily at each of YYZ, YUL and YVR before you see them launching YYC.

Originally Posted by s211

I was not aware that AC used to fly nonstop to Paris.

They tried it one stop via YUL in 2009 (and maybe once before that as well). Didn't last long. Then the route came back as non stop in 2018, but was cut during the pandemic and never came back.

Originally Posted by s211

I wonder if AC would rather continue to route people through Montreal and Toronto and keep those loads high.

That seems to be their strategy.

YUL-CDG will be triple daily for 3 days a week during peak summer this year.

https://canadianaviationnews.ca/more...th-air-canada/

TS is doing the same. Coupled with AF at 4x daily, and that's insane capacity on YUL-Paris for S24.

17x weekly AC
17x weekly TS
28x weekly AF
7x weekly SS (ORY)

That's an average of almost 10 flights a day in peak summer. It might even be 11 daily on certain days, assuming they all operate at peak that day. It is the Olympics in Paris this year as well.

Once AC gets those A321XLRs and 78Xs, I can see YVR-ZRH and CDG returning, plus maybe even FCO.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Isn’t AS just adjusting PDX to summer seasonal? There doesn’t seem to be any indication it is axed for good.

Anyway AS will be 7 daily this summer including the return of mainline 737s to SEA all other flights on E75s (including the daily PDX).
AC maintaining 4 daily to PDX this summer

YVR-PDX on AS currently schedule to return on Mar 19, 2025 for the S25 season.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by nname

YVR-PDX on AS currently schedule to return on Mar 19, 2025 for the S25 season.

I'm surprised AS can't make PDX-YVR work year round but I guess AC is too strong on the route.

[C3YVR]

Originally Posted by nname

YVR-PDX on AS currently schedule to return on Mar 19, 2025 for the S25 season.

My guess this has more to do with the current state of Portland, I spent almost a week there about a month ago and it was shocking to see how empty downtown Portland has become. It has cleaned itself up since COVID but it is severely lacking people and downtown retail and restaurants were almost non-existent. Hopefully given time people will return but as it currently stands it is block after block of empty storefronts and offices.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

LeftCoaster mentioned BCN. Great. But wouldn't that only be summer seasonal? Could we have crack at Lisbon, even if only seasonally at first. (If AC wouldn't, maybe TAP would.)

I can't see YVR to BCN, LIS, ATH or even FCO being year round. That's less a YVR thing than it is a Spain, Portugal and Greece thing, they just aren't big business centres with major draw in the winter.

Also, re TK. I am sure if Transport Canada would give Turkish more western Canada rights they would use them immediately, but TK needs to prove O&D demand is growing, not just connecting passengers. I would imagine it is, but who knows if it has grown enough to justify 1-2 more per week. I would rest assured though that TK will be pushing for more allowances as soon as they think they can get it approved.

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

I can't see YVR to BCN, LIS, ATH or even FCO being year round. That's less a YVR thing than it is a Spain, Portugal and Greece thing, they just aren't big business centres with major draw in the winter.

Also, re TK. I am sure if Transport Canada would give Turkish more western Canada rights they would use them immediately, but TK needs to prove O&D demand is growing, not just connecting passengers. I would imagine it is, but who knows if it has grown enough to justify 1-2 more per week. I would rest assured though that TK will be pushing for more allowances as soon as they think they can get it approved.

I could see Lisbon, perhaps not daily. TAP Air Portugal is doing their own thing. They are star alliance airlines, but are outside of the pack between AC, Lufthansa and United. While they can't fill their aircraft with local traffic to Lisbon they have onward connections to the rest of Europe. The only problem is Lisbon has a limited number of slots and TAP has a limited number of aircraft.

[zahav]

YVR is always heavily summer seasonal to Europe, AC only really started more capacity and routes just before Covid (ie. Paris) so it was no surprise to see that get chopped, especially since AF was the big player on the route. Same with ZRH, Edelweiss is part of SWISS, so in the same fold as AC. DUB year round would be good, but still not sure the market is strong enough. When we start getting pessimistic about YVR-Europe, especially year-round, just look at LAX. They are on another level of importance as a city, as a state, as an economy, etc., and their service to Mediterranean is bare bones. Zero to Athens, not even daily year-round to Rome, Madrid or Barcelona, and none to Milan. And no service on any US airline, the only service is from ITA to ROM and Iberia to Spain. For a city as large as LA to not have year-round service to each of these destinations shows something, especially that no US airline operates the routes. So exactly the way AC can build up YYZ and YUL to Europe, American and Delta build up their eastern airports to handle these.

Alaska to PDX coming back is good, a lot of people thought it was axed completely. Alaska is focusing more on SEA than PDX, now more than ever. PDX is to SEA like YEG is to YYC in many ways, the smaller neighbour that is very close geographically, with the same dominant airline but with significantly less service. I see Spirit Airlines is launching a bunch of routes from PDX, trying to take on Alaska. We'll see how that goes, Spirit is known to be horrid and Alaska has some of the highest customer satisfaction of big airlines, so hope Spirit doesn't win...

Speaking of PNW airports, just saw this:

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES DISCONTINUES SERVICE TO 4 AIRPORTS IN AUGUST 2024
Published at 1200GMT 30APR24

Southwest Airlines in last week's schedule update filed various service changes in the third quarter of 2024, as the airline discontinues service to 4 cities from 05AUG24. The carrier will discontinue service to Bellingham, Cozumel, Houston Intercontinental and Syracuse. Impacted routes include the following, with frequencies listed based on week of 18AUG24.

Bellingham – Denver 2 weekly
Bellingham – Las Vegas 11 weekly
Bellingham – Oakland 7 weekly
Houston Hobby – Cozumel 1 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Chicago Midway 17 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Dallas Love Field 20 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Denver 17 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Las Vegas 16 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Nashville 17 weekly
Houston Intercontinental – Orlando 5 weekly
Syracuse – Baltimore/Washington 21 weekly
Syracuse – Orlando 7 weekly
Syracuse – Tampa 2 weekly

Sorry but not sorry to see this. Bellingham is designed entirely to steal pax from YVR, so I am not upset when I see cuts happening there. Back in like 2007-8, people thought leisure transborder from YVR was toast, everyone was going to Bellingham for their US flights, people thought they were going to take everything once they went through their expansion. Yet that hasn't happened at all, and now Southwest is pulling the plug entirely (it doesn't specify, but those 3 routes represent the entire Bellingham service). And ending all service on August 4th, deep in the busy summer travel season?
Suggests pretty awful performance... The airport's offerings are now are basically as they were in the mid-2000s, with only Allegiant and the same basic destinations. Over the years Alaska tried more routes, Allegiant tried more, they had Hawaii for a while. But all ended. As much as SEA is competition for YVR, many pax connecting from YVR thru SEA will fly from YVR so it still helps us with flight frequencies and pax numbers. BLI is just a total drain for losing pax.

Lastly:

AIR CANADA MAY 2024 VANCOUVER – MIAMI CAPACITY INCREASES
Published at 0800GMT 30APR24

Air Canada in May 2024 is expanding capacity on Vancouver – Miami service, as the carrier schedules Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner service on Sundays, replacing 737 MAX 8 (except 12MAY24). The carrier overall schedules 2 weekly flights from 08MAY24.

AC1034 YVR0815 – 1704MIA 789 7
AC1034 YVR0815 – 1730MIA 7M8 3

AC1035 MIA1830 – 2218YVR 7M8 3
AC1035 MIA1845 – 2153YVR 789 7

Wish that was permanent, but that aircraft is too in demand for other routes in summer, but it's a good sign seeing it deployed even for a period. It is still a rather young route, so adding premium widebody service is positive

[RedArbutus]

Originally Posted by zahav

Lastly:

AIR CANADA MAY 2024 VANCOUVER – MIAMI CAPACITY INCREASES
Published at 0800GMT 30APR24

Air Canada in May 2024 is expanding capacity on Vancouver – Miami service, as the carrier schedules Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner service on Sundays, replacing 737 MAX 8 (except 12MAY24). The carrier overall schedules 2 weekly flights from 08MAY24.

AC1034 YVR0815 – 1704MIA 789 7
AC1034 YVR0815 – 1730MIA 7M8 3

AC1035 MIA1830 – 2218YVR 7M8 3
AC1035 MIA1845 – 2153YVR 789 7

Wish that was permanent, but that aircraft is too in demand for other routes in summer, but it's a good sign seeing it deployed even for a period. It is still a rather young route, so adding premium widebody service is positive

That's great. We just flew this route on AC about 6 weeks ago (on the Max8) and they were full flights. Very popular. The upgrade to Dreamliner capacity this early on suggests that AC is betting on an upward trend.