Lamenting the decline of the car

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The thing I don't get is why vehicles this size aren't all hybridized. Specs like this make OEMs just look terrible. They could have made it a mild hybrid and gotten more power and torque while still getting better mileage.

Profit. Because profit.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The MSRP is $80,000 for a Wagoneer and runs up to $120,000 for a Grand Wagoneer. You're right about the fuel efficiency, but Jeep's playing in a market where 'waste of money' is a sign you've made it. See: Cadillac Escalade.

Chrysler, er, Stellantis pretty much exists for Ram and Jeep these days in North America.

At least GM has a diesel option for the Escalade, Yukon, etc. A very fuel efficient engine that can achieve better than 9L/100 km on the highway. The wagoneers are in their own guzzler category even when compared to their gas powered competitors.

[Truenorth00]

Canada is moving to ban the sale of new internal combustion engines after 2035.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...ngines-by-2035

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Canada is moving to ban the sale of new internal combustion engines after 2035.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...ngines-by-2035

Great, predictable move.

Excuse my ignorance - but has Canada proposed any initiatives or funding that would allow for a robust build out of electric charging infrastructure across the country? Similar to what is included in Biden's infrastructure plan?

For the cities I also wonder how older residential tower will handle the excess needed load to charge all these vehicles.

Its not a problem today or tomorrow, but once a double digit amount of vehicle sales, and ultimately all, go electric, there is going to be some intense infrastructure bottle necks to make this work that should be getting addressed now, not in 2035 when its 10 years too late.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by rofina

Excuse my ignorance - but has Canada proposed any initiatives or funding that would allow for a robust build out of electric charging infrastructure across the country? Similar to what is included in Biden's infrastructure plan?

For the cities I also wonder how older residential tower will handle the excess needed load to charge all these vehicles.

Its not a problem today or tomorrow, but once a double digit amount of vehicle sales, and ultimately all, go electric, there is going to be some intense infrastructure bottle necks to make this work that should be getting addressed now, not in 2035 when its 10 years too late.

"The budget will balance itself" - Justin Trudeau (2015)
"the charging infrastructure will build itself" - Justin Trudeau (2021)

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

"The budget will balance itself" - Justin Trudeau (2015)
"the charging infrastructure will build itself" - Justin Trudeau (2021)

I mean, both of those statements are essentially correct. I doubt we needed government intervention to get the network of gas stations we have today.

[thewave46]

Theoretically, the government shouldn't need to do anything.

If wide-scale adoption of electric cars occurs, a lot of the infrastructure already exists. Sure, upgrades will need to happen, but the electric power grid spans the continent.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rofina

Excuse my ignorance - but has Canada proposed any initiatives or funding that would allow for a robust build out of electric charging infrastructure across the country? Similar to what is included in Biden's infrastructure plan?

They had funding for charging infrastructure in the budget. And it's one of the mandates for the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

Presumably more will come over time. They should be working on an actual transition strategy. And I suspect there was definitely some discussions with the automakers about this. Otherwise, it's pretty surprising that GM located their entire commercial EV delivery van production in Ingersoll when the largest market would be the US.

Originally Posted by rofina

For the cities I also wonder how older residential tower will handle the excess needed load to charge all these vehicles.

There is undoubtedly a lot of utility work and wiring work for older buildings. This is why the government is announcing a ban on new sales 14 years out. Lots of work for electricians in the next 20 years.

Originally Posted by rofina

Its not a problem today or tomorrow, but once a double digit amount of vehicle sales, and ultimately all, go electric, there is going to be some intense infrastructure bottle necks to make this work that should be getting addressed now, not in 2035 when its 10 years too late.

A date gives everyone a target to work towards. The other thing to keep in mind is that this really isn't that far out there. Carmaker themselves are starting to pledge to eliminate tailpipes by 2035. GM, for example, is going all electric by 2035. The EU has a similar 2035 target. And there's 12 US states including large ones like California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Washington that are also pushing got a 2035 target. So really, the likelihood that most automakers will have a fully electric line up in 2035 was rather high. Canada is just adding to the pressure. And setting a goal for our own infrastructure build out.

It's important to keep in mind that this is only a ban on new gas car sales. I suspect something like half of all cars on the road will still be gas or diesel in 2035. So it's not like the infrastructure has to be 100% by 2035. But it does have to get under way relatively soon to avoid large bottlenecks later.

[Truenorth00]

The reaction has been predictable. So many people think this is the end of the world because they won't be able to drive their 1980 F150 to Flin Flon in 2035.

It's unfortunate that people don't understand how much technological change can happen in that much time.

14 years ago yesterday was the store launch of the original iPhone. Tesla was still 8 months away from delivering their very first vehicle. And that vehicle (the Roadster) cost over US$100k and had less than 400 km of range and Tesla had no charging network. Nobody even knew if they would survive. Today, Tesla sells you a sedan with nearly the same performance as that Roadster and more range, at a third of the price. And they have a continent wide charging network to support it. Just imagine where them and all the other carmakers will be in 14 years.

I always use the example of 1997 to 2007. If in 1997, I told you that in 10 years, for 20% of the cost of your desktop, I would sell you a touchscreen pocket computer with more power than your desktop, a better digital camera than you have, a better GPS than your car, and with the same internet speed as your dialup, what would you have called me? Genius or lunatic? Yet in Jan 2007, Steve Jobs was on stage announcing the first iPhone.

10 years is a long time in tech. 14 years is an eternity.

[Innsertnamehere]

There are already rumours flying that Tesla is formulating a $25k small hatchback.

Now knowing Tesla, $25k is actually $30k for the model people actually want and it can be optioned up to $50k+.. but still.

Things like a $40k all electric F-150 would have made people say you are crazy even 2-3 years ago.

Things are changing fast.

[logan5]

I think companies are purposely suppressing an affordable, for the masses, electric vehicle. At this point they should be able to make a sub 20k model. A micro car would need a very minimal battery. Battery packs are fairly cheap now.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

There are already rumours flying that Tesla is formulating a $25k small hatchback.

Now knowing Tesla, $25k is actually $30k for the model people actually want and it can be optioned up to $50k+.. but still.

They want to compete with the proposed $25k Volkswagen hatchback that's supposed to come out in 2024-2025.

The competition is just starting. Tesla hasn't had much earnest competition till now.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Things like a $40k all electric F-150 would have made people say you are crazy even 2-3 years ago.

Things are changing fast.

Exactly. By 2035, the F-150 is probably going to have twice the range and have a sticker price lower than the gas version.

The real fun starts when gas stations start closing. Norway is are 54% EV sales and they are starting to see gas stations close or go electric.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/11/gas-p...s-taking-over/

In 2030, we will be where Norway is today. Just imagine what 100% electric sales will do to gas stations beyond 2035..

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by logan5

I think companies are purposely suppressing an affordable, for the masses, electric vehicle. At this point they should be able to make a sub 20k model. A micro car would need a very minimal battery. Battery packs are fairly cheap now.

they need profits to pay back all the crazy development costs - it makes sense that they are focusing their efforts on the higher margin products first.

It'll get there.

There is also the market reality that micro cars don't sell. the average selling price of a new car in the US is now over $40k USD - most of the new car market is able to pay much more than $20k.

I think the disconnect is that younger people are more likely to want and seek out electric, while they are more likely to be budget limited on their selection.

And while a $20k electric car is possible today, but it would be like a Honda Fit with bare bones finishes and probably a 300km range. Not many people would buy that.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

They had funding for charging infrastructure in the budget. And it's one of the mandates for the Canada Infrastructure Bank.

Presumably more will come over time. They should be working on an actual transition strategy. And I suspect there was definitely some discussions with the automakers about this. Otherwise, it's pretty surprising that GM located their entire commercial EV delivery van production in Ingersoll when the largest market would be the US.

Appreciate the info.

There is undoubtedly a lot of utility work and wiring work for older buildings. This is why the government is announcing a ban on new sales 14 years out. Lots of work for electricians in the next 20 years.

I was on council in two building, both were contemplating the costs of this.

One was a tower, much more units, the costs were unreal - around 3 million from memory. It required a feed upgrade into the building from Hydro, new transformers, etc, etc. Residents said no, but these costs should be getting account for already. Its clear the need will be there, if not next week than in 5 years for sure.

A date gives everyone a target to work towards. The other thing to keep in mind is that this really isn't that far out there. Carmaker themselves are starting to pledge to eliminate tailpipes by 2035. GM, for example, is going all electric by 2035. The EU has a similar 2035 target. And there's 12 US states including large ones like California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Washington that are also pushing got a 2035 target. So really, the likelihood that most automakers will have a fully electric line up in 2035 was rather high. Canada is just adding to the pressure. And setting a goal for our own infrastructure build out.

I have a good amount of trust in industry to get onboard. I'm having a much harder time imagining how upgrading some existing private infrastructure is going to work or happen. Such as the Strata example above. This will be interesting to watch.

It's important to keep in mind that this is only a ban on new gas car sales. I suspect something like half of all cars on the road will still be gas or diesel in 2035. So it's not like the infrastructure has to be 100% by 2035. But it does have to get under way relatively soon to avoid large bottlenecks later.

Definitely. I expect used gassers to trade for a long time after. Just as a total curiosity, I do wonder what will happen to gasoline car prices sooner this deadline gets. If you're looking to finance a new gasser in 2032 for 5 years, is that thing going to be near worthless at the end? I wonder how consumers will react.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by rofina

Definitely. I expect used gassers to trade for a long time after. Just as a total curiosity, I do wonder what will happen to gasoline car prices sooner this deadline gets. If you're looking to finance a new gasser in 2032 for 5 years, is that thing going to be near worthless at the end? I wonder how consumers will react.

I would imagine it will hinge mainly on the price and availability of fuel. Assuming there are still Essos with gas pumps nearby and a reasonably priced supply in the same general ballpark as today's prices (e.g. $2.09/L OK, $7.89/L not OK), I think it's virtually certain that there will be a taker for a good condition, gas-powered car in 2037.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rofina

Appreciate the info.

...

I was on council in two building, both were contemplating the costs of this.

One was a tower, much more units, the costs were unreal - around 3 million from memory. It required a feed upgrade into the building from Hydro, new transformers, etc, etc. Residents said no, but these costs should be getting account for already. Its clear the need will be there, if not next week than in 5 years for sure.


I have a good amount of trust in industry to get onboard. I'm having a much harder time imagining how upgrading some existing private infrastructure is going to work or happen. Such as the Strata example above. This will be interesting to watch.

3M??? How many spots did that building have?

But in general, this is something that all these older buildings will have to take into account. This is effectively deferred capital spending. And presumably any potential buyer would discount units in that building if the complex wasn't "EV read" so to speak. This will be especially true if we're at something like 50% of all cars sold in 2030 are BEVs.

Something to keep in mind is that I am sure the feds will have some incentives to help multifamily dwellings. They will have to have something to meet this goal. But how much it will cover remains to be seen. There may just be some buildings where they take the depreciation hit instead of installing charging and let residents rely on public chargers instead.

I am pushing for the board of my condo to at least start studying the decision. So this announcement gives me more ammo. I am pushing for them to study installing an outlet at each parking spot and to study installing charging stations in a few visitor spots. I want to at least see a study of the cost and capacity/throughput differences.

Originally Posted by rofina

Definitely. I expect used gassers to trade for a long time after. Just as a total curiosity, I do wonder what will happen to gasoline car prices sooner this deadline gets. If you're looking to finance a new gasser in 2032 for 5 years, is that thing going to be near worthless at the end? I wonder how consumers will react.

To your specific scenario, there's no way I'd buy or finance a new gas vehicle in 2022. Let alone 2032.

I expect substantial depreciation. I think some people expect that their gasser will hold value like some kind of collectible. LOL. Maybe if you have a Ferrari. In reality, nobody is going to want to buy your Honda Civic when finding a gas pump, finding an independent lube shop and sourcing spare parts gets more challenging every year. Not to mention what a rising carbon tax will do to gas prices. If the carbon tax were to keep rising at $15/yr past 2030, and oil prices stayed at $70/bbl, gas would cost over $2/L everywhere in the country. Diesel would cost more. You would have to be a masochist to want to have more inconvenience and pay more to operate a gas vehicle in 2035. The only folks for whom it will be worthwhile are those who use their vehicles in specific situations where the power (utility trucks) and range are required (remote locations for example). That's a pretty small set.

Trying to sell a used gas car in 2037, will be a lot like trying to sell a horse in 1917, a decade after the Model T was released by Ford. I am sure somebody was buying. But at what price?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I expect substantial depreciation. I think some people expect that their gasser will hold value like some kind of collectible. LOL. Maybe if you have a Ferrari. In reality, nobody is going to want to buy your Honda Civic when finding a gas pump, finding an independent lube shop and sourcing spare parts gets more challenging every year. Not to mention what a rising carbon tax will do to gas prices. If the carbon tax were to keep rising at $15/yr past 2030, and oil prices stayed at $70/bbl, gas would cost over $2/L everywhere in the country. Diesel would cost more. You would have to be a masochist to want to have more inconvenience and pay more to operate a gas vehicle in 2035. The only folks for whom it will be worthwhile are those who use their vehicles in specific situations where the power (utility trucks) and range are required (remote locations for example). That's a pretty small set.

Trying to sell a used gas car in 2037, will be a lot like trying to sell a horse in 1917, a decade after the Model T was released by Ford. I am sure somebody was buying. But at what price?

The scenario is accurate but the timeline is off. Think about how many gas-powered cars are on the road today, with new ones being purchased every day... they aren't all going to disappear over the next 15 years. There will still be vast numbers of cars supporting gas stations and lube shops. But yeah, eventually that tipping point will be reached.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by esquire

The scenario is accurate but the timeline is off. Think about how many gas-powered cars are on the road today, with new ones being purchased every day... they aren't all going to disappear over the next 15 years. There will still be vast numbers of cars supporting gas stations and lube shops. But yeah, eventually that tipping point will be reached.

Disappear? No. They will be fewer and fewer every year. And that will make them more and more inconvenient. Just think about how many gas stations there are today in a typical city? Now imagine if even half of them shut down or converted to all electric?

Norway was at 54% of new car sales as electric in 2020. They are in the ballpark of 15-20% of vehicles on the road are BEVs. And they are already starting to see gas stations shutting down:

https://electrek.co/2019/10/11/gas-p...s-taking-over/

The reality is that retailing gas is a low margin business. And there's no real alternative to makeup for the retailing of gas, by installing fast chargers instead. And the market for fast charging is a lot smaller than gas since the majority of BEV charging can be done at home.

Now consider the Canadian context. We have a lot more homes with garages. And we'll be achieving the same percentages as the Norwegians today, in 2030, when BEVs have substantially larger and faster charging battery packs.

All of this to me says that it is entirely possible that a large chunk of gas stations will be gone or fully converted by 2035. Or we may end up seeing in some locations where the gas pump is tossed to the side, the same way your propane fill station is today.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

3M??? How many spots did that building have?

I want to say around 600 over multiple levels.

There was something like $500,000 in technically non electrical infrastructure work required to even start, new curbs for generators, new bulkheads to conceal wires, opening of existing ceilings, etc.

But in general, this is something that all these older buildings will have to take into account. This is effectively deferred capital spending. And presumably any potential buyer would discount units in that building if the complex wasn't "EV read" so to speak. This will be especially true if we're at something like 50% of all cars sold in 2030 are BEVs.

Something to keep in mind is that I am sure the feds will have some incentives to help multifamily dwellings. They will have to have something to meet this goal. But how much it will cover remains to be seen. There may just be some buildings where they take the depreciation hit instead of installing charging and let residents rely on public chargers instead.

Makes sense.

I am pushing for the board of my condo to at least start studying the decision. So this announcement gives me more ammo. I am pushing for them to study installing an outlet at each parking spot and to study installing charging stations in a few visitor spots. I want to at least see a study of the cost and capacity/throughput differences.

Definitely, might as well be ahead of it.

To your specific scenario, there's no way I'd buy or finance a new gas vehicle in 2022. Let alone 2032.

I expect substantial depreciation. I think some people expect that their gasser will hold value like some kind of collectible. LOL. Maybe if you have a Ferrari. In reality, nobody is going to want to buy your Honda Civic when finding a gas pump, finding an independent lube shop and sourcing spare parts gets more challenging every year. Not to mention what a rising carbon tax will do to gas prices. If the carbon tax were to keep rising at $15/yr past 2030, and oil prices stayed at $70/bbl, gas would cost over $2/L everywhere in the country. Diesel would cost more. You would have to be a masochist to want to have more inconvenience and pay more to operate a gas vehicle in 2035. The only folks for whom it will be worthwhile are those who use their vehicles in specific situations where the power (utility trucks) and range are required (remote locations for example). That's a pretty small set.

Car sales are are record highs, I think you're a little ahead of the curve not willing to finance a new gasser in 2022. Especially since most new gassers bought are massive new luxury trucks and SUV's. Its almost an ironic final hurrah.

Diesel/Gas will have to remain available. Semis, RV's, Utility trucks, logging trucks, etc, all will likely run on traditional fuels for much longer. Unless battery technology is about hit exponential gains in capacity and cost.

As an aside, gasoline was $1.76 in Metro Van the other day. I think $2 will be here in a year or two. Let alone 2030. But point taken about rest of country.

Trying to sell a used gas car in 2037, will be a lot like trying to sell a horse in 1917, a decade after the Model T was released by Ford. I am sure somebody was buying. But at what price?

All the above said, I suspect you're more correct than not.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rofina

Diesel/Gas will have to remain available. Semis, RV's, Utility trucks, logging trucks, etc, all will likely run on traditional fuels for much longer. Unless battery technology is about hit exponential gains in capacity and cost.

There's electric vehicles coming out in literally every one of the categories you listed. And obviously, they will be mature in 14 years.

I think people misunderstand the difference between availability and convenience. I've got 4 gas stations within a 1 km radius of my condo here in Ottawa, just outside the downtown core. I'm willing to bet that 1-2 of them are toast in 15 years. It'll be even worse in suburban areas. They all have garages they can charge in. And they have longer distances to drive. So adoption will be high. And with it the gas stations that are already further apart will decline. Some will close. So while gas and diesel will be available for a while, it's less likely that getting it will be convenient. And it'll get harder with each year that goes by.