CHICAGO | General Discussions

[LouisVanDerWright]

We will see what happens when they deliver 6000 units this year...

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright

We will see what happens when they deliver 6000 units this year...

Yep, will be interesting. How are your rents and occupancies holding up?

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Yep, will be interesting. How are your rents and occupancies holding up?

Just fine, have had zero vacancy and only the usual tenant or two who is behind. I'm actually more afraid of a wave of tenant defaults should the bottom of the employment market drop out. Inflation will continue unabated, but the supply of credit worthy tenants will fall. Those who can get the food tenants will do just tfine, people with poorly renovated or obsolete properties will suffer.m vacancy and or non performing tenants. I'll be delivering 8 more units this spring and I'm expecting the market to be strong. Anyone who gets delayed into fall delivery is likely screwed.

[mark0]

Originally Posted by Mr Downtown

TIF sailed through CDC (not that there was ever any doubt).

Amazon is facing some serious trouble in the NY state legislature. Not sure if they'd be open to moving still or if Amazon is even a viable business long term (serious doubts about valuations and accounting), but wouldnt that be nice for an anchor tenant.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by mark0

Amazon is facing some serious trouble in the NY state legislature. Not sure if they'd be open to moving still or if Amazon is even a viable business long term (serious doubts about valuations and accounting), but wouldnt that be nice for an anchor tenant.

Nah, Amazon had its chance and they decided to go "we want to be on the east coast for all that ooey-gooey 'talent' " on us, so they can get bent.

I'm actually much more interested in the DPI, which clearly seems to be gaining momentum, especially with the Governor's sister on board.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by mark0

Amazon is facing some serious trouble in the NY state legislature. Not sure if they'd be open to moving still or if Amazon is even a viable business long term (serious doubts about valuations and accounting), but wouldnt that be nice for an anchor tenant.

I think it's a bit clear by now that Amazon wasn't so much seeking talent as they were seeking STATUS and influence at a taxpayer-funded discount. Chicago is not a city that gives you status just by living there, which is a good thing I think but underappreciated especially by the more status-obsessed coasts.

The other competing cities just got datamined and taken for a ride. Best to focus on companies that have a genuine interest in the region.

[mark0]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I think it's a bit clear by now that Amazon wasn't so much seeking talent as they were seeking STATUS and influence at a taxpayer-funded discount. Chicago is not a city that gives you status just by living there, which is a good thing I think but underappreciated especially by the more status-obsessed coasts.

The other competing cities just got datamined and taken for a ride. Best to focus on companies that have a genuine interest in the region.

I agree, but it really does appear their status rank was DC / NYC first tier, CHI / MIA second. Amazon's fiercest opponent in the NY legislature is taking control of the board that needs to approve the funds and the senate is against the deal. It's a real mess and NYC has the depth of well heeled opponents to actually chase them away. Regardless, I dont even use amazon and am highly suspect this dot com era pipe dream will implode as soon as investors start demanding dividends, but it cant be denied they have had an amazing run and wherever they locate will see tremendous spin offs.

[Barrelfish]

Originally Posted by mark0

Regardless, I dont even use amazon and am highly suspect this dot com era pipe dream will implode as soon as investors start demanding dividends.

Sorry for going off topic, but this is BS. 10-20 years ago you may have had a point, but in 2019 Amazon is an insanely successful company in very real terms.

Looking at Amazon's 2018 financial statements, Amazon generated $232 Billion of revenue (up 30% vs. 2017) and $10B of Net Income (which more than tripled year over year).

If you look at cold hard cash instead of accounting measures, they produced $30B of cash from core operations (65% higher than 2017). Even with their insane levels of investment in acquisitions and distribution infrastructure they still had almost $10B of cash left over.

They could easily cut back on investments and start paying out significant dividends, but they think that money is better put to work in additional investments. Maybe that's wrong, but the investor who would get the biggest cash payout if they started paying dividends is Jeff Bezos himself, who owns 16% of the company.

If the NY legislature does end up chasing Amazon out of town, Chicago would benefit a lot from getting it. Whether we would overpay for the privilege is another matter.

[west-town-brad]

Originally Posted by Barrelfish

Sorry for going off topic, but this is BS. 10-20 years ago you may have had a point, but in 2019 Amazon is an insanely successful company in very real terms.

Looking at Amazon's 2018 financial statements, Amazon generated $232 Billion of revenue (up 30% vs. 2017) and $10B of Net Income (which more than tripled year over year).

If you look at cold hard cash instead of accounting measures, they produced $30B of cash from core operations (65% higher than 2017). Even with their insane levels of investment in acquisitions and distribution infrastructure they still had almost $10B of cash left over.

They could easily cut back on investments and start paying out significant dividends, but they think that money is better put to work in additional investments. Maybe that's wrong, but the investor who would get the biggest cash payout if they started paying dividends is Jeff Bezos himself, who owns 16% of the company.

If the NY legislature does end up chasing Amazon out of town, Chicago would benefit a lot from getting it. Whether we would overpay for the privilege is another matter.

Amazon is no more "insanely successful" than Walmart.

[pilsenarch]

Originally Posted by west-town-brad

Amazon is no more "insanely successful" than Walmart.

Yes, Amazon has eclipsed Walmart...

[mark0]

Originally Posted by Barrelfish

Sorry for going off topic, but this is BS. 10-20 years ago you may have had a point, but in 2019 Amazon is an insanely successful company in very real terms.

Looking at Amazon's 2018 financial statements, Amazon generated $232 Billion of revenue (up 30% vs. 2017) and $10B of Net Income (which more than tripled year over year).

If you look at cold hard cash instead of accounting measures, they produced $30B of cash from core operations (65% higher than 2017). Even with their insane levels of investment in acquisitions and distribution infrastructure they still had almost $10B of cash left over.

They could easily cut back on investments and start paying out significant dividends, but they think that money is better put to work in additional investments. Maybe that's wrong, but the investor who would get the biggest cash payout if they started paying dividends is Jeff Bezos himself, who owns 16% of the company.

If the NY legislature does end up chasing Amazon out of town, Chicago would benefit a lot from getting it. Whether we would overpay for the privilege is another matter.

They are being accused of using their Prime revenue as cash float and that actual revenue is far less. Im just suspect of any comapny that makes less than 2% profit margin, some years, and pays no dividend. I get that they spent it all building a distribution network and computing empire but, too many plates to keep spinning?

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by pilsenarch

Yes, Amazon has eclipsed Walmart...

Exactly, they are in the same conversation. Anyone who doesn't consider Walmart to be "insanely successful" is themselves insane. It's one of the most shocking business models in history like Sears once was. Amazon appears to be the next herald of the Uber retailer. We will see if old models like Walmart can compete or if they will go the way of the last Titan of retail, Sears.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by mark0

I agree, but it really does appear their status rank was DC / NYC first tier, CHI / MIA second. Amazon's fiercest opponent in the NY legislature is taking control of the board that needs to approve the funds and the senate is against the deal. It's a real mess and NYC has the depth of well heeled opponents to actually chase them away. Regardless, I dont even use amazon and am highly suspect this dot com era pipe dream will implode as soon as investors start demanding dividends, but it cant be denied they have had an amazing run and wherever they locate will see tremendous spin offs.

By golly, they just might ditch NYC...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/08/amaz...t-reports.html

Could be interesting if what you are saying about their tiering is right. We can crush Miami. Wouldn't that be rich if Amazon ended up here because a bunch of Lucas Museum style idiots ruined it for NYC?

[k1052]

Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright

By golly, they just might ditch NYC...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/08/amaz...t-reports.html

Could be interesting if what you are saying about their tiering is right. We can crush Miami. Wouldn't that be rich if Amazon ended up here because a bunch of Lucas Museum style idiots ruined it for NYC?

I think they could well bail on NYC. Things are not going smoothly and they can't endure years of bad press and delays stemming from political disagreements with so many parties.

Meanwhile the 78 is sitting there fully entitled and on the verge of receiving its TIF blessing from the city council. There is no way the state government would pull the incentive package either.

[Baronvonellis]

Yea, the 78 is literally shovel ready for them tomorrow if they want to come to Chicago, it would be a perfect site for them.

[bnk]

BJ and Penny Pritzker, Rahm and Bill Daley need to pick Bezos up in BJ's Jet and hold him hostage in Ken Griffin's penthouses and force Bezos to take daily helicopter rides over the 78. Force Bezos eat at Alinea every with a new "escort" ever single night until he relents.

Jesting of course.





https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loca...505577961.html



Emanuel Responds to Report of Amazon Rethinking HQ2 Location

Published Feb 8, 2019 at 3:14 PM

...


Bill Daley, running for Chicago mayor, told reporters Friday that he would consider looking again at an Amazon headquarters if elected.


...

[Chi-Sky21]

Northbound lanes of Lake Shore Drive were closed Monday morning between Monroe Street and Grand Avenue for a "structural emergency" on the bridge. Wonder whats going on.

[Chicagoguy]

Originally Posted by Chi-Sky21

Northbound lanes of Lake Shore Drive were closed Monday morning between Monroe Street and Grand Avenue for a "structural emergency" on the bridge. Wonder whats going on.

Closure of northbound Lake Shore Drive over Chicago River to hit afternoon rush

"A cracked steel beam that supports the roadway leading to the Lake Shore Drive Bridge over the Chicago River forced the closure of the northbound drive near the river while officials shore up the structure Monday, authorities said."

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...211-story.html

[the urban politician]

If anybody is interested, a District Judge dismissed the case by Strauss (Double Door Owner) against the City.

I find our courts kind of scary in how they protect this kind of behavior from our elected officials. If you read this judge’s arguments, it’s like she was looking for a way to protect the city instead of trying to be objective. She says that an Alderman has no “executive” power and thus Alderman Moreno’s threats (“I will send in inspectors every day, I will prevent you from making any money”) cannot be interpreted as a violation against the property owner’s rights.

What nonsense! Has this judge not spent 5 minutes in Chicago? In practice, Alderman absolutely have thus power. Horrible, horrible decision. Moreno’s actions here were blatantly abusive and if the courts won’t punish him, he frankly deserves a good old fashioned beat down.

Here is the link:

https://www.leagle.com/decision/infdco20180928j75

[LouisVanDerWright]

Comprehensive reconstruction of city council eliminating all aldermanic perogative and putting g planning professionals in charge?

He can't switch employees to 401ks, that would be diminishing their pensions. The only laws allowed relative to pensions in Illinois are laws expanding them. It's like the heat death of the universe, eventually the penisons will expand to such great size that space time itself will be torn asunder.

I just have a sneaking suspicion that Rahm is behind the FBI beatdown on Burke et Al. If anyone has the power to call up federal officials and say "look, you need to do something about this" it's someone like Rahm who has operated at the highest levels. What a wonderful parting gift that would be for Rahm to just stick a fork in the old power structure while chumming the waters for the FBI to clean up all the old guard graft.