Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician
^ Companies won't perpetually lease space that they don't need.
And yes, less busy sidewalks and subways are not a minor problem. They are a catastrophic one.
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The thing is they will still need that much space - floating desk models are almost universally hated. some companies will shift to it to allow them to reduce footprints and have people use unassigned desks when they do come into the office.. but there will still be tons of companies that have assigned desks for employees when they are in the office 3 days a week, and they will likely want surge capacities for when they need more employees in the office than typical on any given day.
Companies have been increasing office densities for 15 years now in an effort to cut costs, pushing for less and less square footage per employee. The overall employment density of office spaces will probably return to be closer to that of the 1990's. Not exactly catastrophic.
As for subway ridership and the crowding levels of sidewalks.. businesses will adjust. NYC, and most major downtown cores for that matter, will be fine.
I expect several permanent outcomes from the pandemic:
1. Reduced employment densities in office spaces coming from much larger adoption of work from home policies, combined in a small reduction in overall office demand as some companies shift to floating desk models to cut office space needs;
2. Reduced demand for inner city housing, specifically in large metros. Small metro inner city housing growth is mostly based on lifestyle choice, which will continue at the same pace as before;
3. Reduced travel demand at peak hour, instead spread wider across the day;
4. increased demand for housing in the "exurbs" of large cities - 1-1.5 hours commute from the core. These areas traditionally were too far from the core to be "commutable" for 5 days a week, but people will be more willing if they only have to do it 2-3 times a week instead; and
5. Increased concentration of office employment in centrally accessible locations in metros. Employers will use cost savings from reduced office footprints to move to locations with the largest commuting shed to maximize talent potential.
Unfortunately it's not great news for cities as a whole. It will likely result in large quality of life boosts for millions of people as they are given greater ability to choose their preferred lifestyle, and will likely drive down the cost of living in a city, but it too will drive down the growth that large cities are experiencing.