Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[giallo]

Originally Posted by harls

Sounds like a steal for the lower mainland.

It it is on Facebook, it will be accompanied by multiple laughing emojis and comments about how landlords are crooks.

That price for New West is definitely taking the piss, but I'm sure they'll get it. They'll have four to five people living there, but it'll be rented.

My friend manages a bunch of properties in Kelowna, and he's finally had enough. He can't do it anymore. Half of it is a moral objection to the greed he has to represent on behalf of his clients, and the other is the constant barrage of threatening PMs he gets.

[harls]

Originally Posted by giallo

My friend manages a bunch of properties in Kelowna, and he's finally had enough. He can't do it anymore. Half of it is a moral objection to the greed he has to represent on behalf of his clients, and the other is the constant barrage of threatening PMs he gets.

I have no idea why people would advertise properties on the likes of social media. It's full of incels and bots. I would have better luck renting an apartment on SSP.

[GlassCity]

It blows my mind there still isn't a monopoly source for rental listings.

[casper]

To compare and contrast with other similar markets. There is Australia.

This "fixer upper" is "interesting". Yes, the Australians typically sell houses at auction. It is just the way they do things down there. Their market sounds a bit overheated in comparison to Vancouver.

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[theman23]

Leave it to Casper to downplay the housing crisis in Canada by trying to compare it favourably to one of the most over heated markets in the world.

10 years ago we used to look at Australia and tell us ourselves that at least things aren’t as bad here as they were there. Now our cities are arguably more expensive than the ones in Australia. . Keep in mind that the median household income in Sydney is nearly 50% higher than the median household income in Vancouver. Ive posted the infographic a few times that shows Canadian home prices have increase 100% in the last ten years versus 50% in Australia, but for some reason never managed to get a response from you on that. I wonder why that is.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by logan5

Yes, because that is not what is happening. You post a lot of false information.


https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-im...els-plans.html

A lot of these immigrants will get jobs in the construction industry by the way.

Do you have any stats supporting that this is happening?

It seems that, since it's a critical need, somebody would be tracking it to see how we are doing.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Do you have any stats supporting that this is happening?

It seems that, since it's a critical need, somebody would be tracking it to see how we are doing.

Immigrants represent 18% of the construction labour market versus 25% of the general labour market, suggesting that the circular logic of us needing more immigrants to build houses for all the immigrants we’re bringing in will likely make the problem worse. The percentage of TFW in construction has also been declining.

The bulk of our recent immigration growth has been due to the surge in international students and there isn’t much data yet, but somehow I doubt that your typical student working towards a business degree is going to be moonlighting as a crane operator.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by theman23

He’s correct. Our population grew by over 1 million last year with international migration being responsible for nearly all of that growth. As pointed out, our predominant migration group is no longer the landed immigrant. As per statcan we had a net increase in 1.05 million migrants to the country last year.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30322f-eng.htm

The number is going to be substantially higher in 2023.

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/stat...61431828889606

If I were a conspiracy theorist I might suspect there are "plants" all over the place including social media who are pushing the idea that *immigration* (strictu sensu) isn't really that high in Canada and that people are being critical for no good reason.

But I'm not a conspiracy theorist (yet). Try as they might to push me in that direction.

[lio45]

Plenty of First Nations Reserves don’t have drinking water? That’s a perfectly fine situation and will stay that way: these whiners should instead be thankful they’re not getting bombed in addition to having no drinking water, just look at the news from Gaza!

[lio45]

That’s called “Caspering the argument” (pointing out that there’s someone somewhere that has it even worse than us, therefore we don’t really have a problem)

[suburbanite]

All of the talk around the need for construction workers also misses the fact that land availability is a far bigger constraint on new home construction. No doubt that the fastest growing markets need additional labour and that there are constraints (especially in certain key trades), but at the end of the day doubling the labour force would lead to a disproportionately smaller increase in housing starts if it doesn't also come with significant land use policy changes. It's like saying I just need to buy new running shoes to win a marathon since mine are falling apart, while ignoring the fact that my ACL is partially torn.

For labour availability to be the key constraint it would mean that there are a be a bunch of shovel-ready sites that are sitting there burning through holding costs solely because they can't secure the necessary contractors. I hear lots of grumbling about labour prices (paying bonuses to trades so they don't walk away to other sites), and how things are moving slowly due to some of these bottlenecks, but I'm not aware of many instances were someone can't even start a large-scale project. Labour shortages in construction are much more likely to affect things like custom home building, renovations, and other small projects. That being said, given that we're actually making some progress on promoting development activities like multi-plex conversions, it should be a no-brainer for any government to make a concerted effort to get more immigrants into construction, target skilled labour abroad, work on a streamlined accreditation system, etc. Increasing the availability of labour long-term helps create an ecosystem that promotes homebuilding all the way down the pyramid from a 600 unit high-rise to a 3 unit rental project.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by theman23

[/URL]. Keep in mind that the median household income in Sydney is nearly 50% higher than the median household income in Vancouver. Ive posted the infographic a few times that shows Canadian home prices have increase 100% in the last ten years versus 50% in Australia, but for some reason never managed to get a response from you on that. I wonder why that is.

Comparing the housing crisis (or at least, the prices and incomes) in Sydney to Vancouver is a valid comparison. Your income data is way off. The link you give to the Australian census shows the median weekly household income was $2,077. That's $108,000 $Aus per year, which in 2021 conversion rates was about $100,000 CAD (and more like $94,000 today). The Greater Vancouver median household wage in 2021 was $90,000, so only about 10% lower than Sydney.

The average mortgage payment in Greater Vancouver in 2021 was $2,407, and the median mortgage repayment in 2021 in Greater Sydney was $2,427 $Aus ($2,184 CAD). So also only a modest difference.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

That’s called “Caspering the argument” (pointing out that there’s someone somewhere that has it even worse than us, therefore we don’t really have a problem)

I guess I should be pleased I am getting my point across.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

All of the talk around the need for construction workers also misses the fact that land availability is a far bigger constraint on new home construction. No doubt that the fastest growing markets need additional labour and that there are constraints (especially in certain key trades), but at the end of the day doubling the labour force would lead to a disproportionately smaller increase in housing starts if it doesn't also come with significant land use policy changes. It's like saying I just need to buy new running shoes to win a marathon since mine are falling apart, while ignoring the fact that my ACL is partially torn.

For labour availability to be the key constraint it would mean that there are a be a bunch of shovel-ready sites that are sitting there burning through holding costs solely because they can't secure the necessary contractors. I hear lots of grumbling about labour prices (paying bonuses to trades so they don't walk away to other sites), and how things are moving slowly due to some of these bottlenecks, but I'm not aware of many instances were someone can't even start a large-scale project. Labour shortages in construction are much more likely to affect things like custom home building, renovations, and other small projects. That being said, given that we're actually making some progress on promoting development activities like multi-plex conversions, it should be a no-brainer for any government to make a concerted effort to get more immigrants into construction, target skilled labour abroad, work on a streamlined accreditation system, etc. Increasing the availability of labour long-term helps create an ecosystem that promotes homebuilding all the way down the pyramid from a 600 unit high-rise to a 3 unit rental project.

Right now, in Vancouver, there's no shortage of developable land, or planning holdups. There are over 200,000 apartments that are already in the development pipeline, but high interest rates, a clampdown on short-term rental and stalling prices are keeping buyers out of the market. That means some condo projects are stalling (not generally while they're being built - unlike Toronto).

Developers are switching to market rental, and will probably build more soon thanks to the decision to wave GST on construction. Housing starts in Metro Vancouver for the first nine months of 2023 are almost the same as the whole of 2022, so there's supply in the pipeline, but several larger construction projects have signs with 'Hiring Now' on the contractor's site office. Yesterday the B.C. Construction Association said there's a 'critical shortage of workers across the province'.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Comparing the housing crisis (or at least, the prices and incomes) in Sydney to Vancouver is a valid comparison. Your income data is way off. The link you give to the Australian census shows the median weekly household income was $2,077. That's $108,000 $Aus per year, which in 2021 conversion rates was about $100,000 CAD (and more like $94,000 today). The Greater Vancouver median household wage in 2021 was $90,000, so only about 10% lower than Sydney.

The average mortgage payment in Greater Vancouver in 2021 was $2,407, and the median mortgage repayment in 2021 in Greater Sydney was $2,427 $Aus ($2,184 CAD). So also only a modest difference.

Is $20 a month really a massive difference when they make 10% more? Not sure what the change in conversion has to do with it. Australians are buying their houses with Australian dollars. Doesn’t matter though. Either way, Sydneysiders are putting less of their incomes towards housing than Vancouverites.


Fairly certain I said our cities are arguably more expensive anyways, so I’m not sure where this response is coming from. Your numbers have even proven my point. I’m repeating myself but you seemed to have missed it the first time: 10 years ago Australia was substantially more expensive. They’ve continued to get more expensive, but we’ve outpaced them and arguably overtaken them in the list of the worlds most unaffordable cities. That trend doesn’t seem to be abating so it doesn’t bode well for our future.

And when it comes to value, Australia actually seems like it may be worth the premium. Sydney is one of the great cities of the New World.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by lio45

That’s called “Caspering the argument” (pointing out that there’s someone somewhere that has it even worse than us, therefore we don’t really have a problem)

In this case, it’s actually not worse. It’s just also bad, but not as bad.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by giallo

Just saw a two bed/two bath apartment in New Westminster trying to get $3300 a month for rent.

Pure lunacy.

There's a 2 bed + den, 1.5 bath townhouse in my building in New West that's currently renting for $3600 a month.

[Doady]

The new bail reform legislation should help ease the burden a little bit.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

In this case, it’s actually not worse. It’s just also bad, but not as bad.

Just helping to point out it is a global trend. Europe, UK, Australia, etc. we are all hitting demographic challenges of an aging population and the need to dramatically increase our population.

Japan is a good example of what happens when you don't address the problem head on through immigration. You may end up with an over supply of housing but it comes with major economic problems.

The Americans have a uniquely American solution. They depend on illegal immigration. The illegal construction works then hang out in the local Home Depot parking lot looking for day work. It works for them, but the ethics can be a bit questionable.

[casper]

Typical of what challenges local municipalities need to deal with.

This development was proposed in the Victoria area. Typical five story building. Nothing overly notable. It is going on a major road in an area that is planned for higher density. It would create 104 units and replace 3 single family homes. Abstract is a well respected developer in Victoria.

Source: ABSTRACT DEVELOPMENTS, published by Times Columnist.

The local council had a 4 hour pre-application hearing. Residents were concerned about the size, traffic, the impact on a nearby part and nature area,

One resident in response to the provincial government order to the municipal government to build more homes said: “The order from the province is not a corresponding invitation to make our neighborhoods less safe, cut down urban forests, disregard our values and change our neighbourhoods,”

So, what happens. The council tells the developers, there are a few Gary Oaks in the corner of one of the lots, change the design to save those trees. Come back to us.

Looks like the municipal government is also pushing them to add some three bedroom units. It is mostly two bedrooms.

I think we are going to see this play out over and over across the country. If provinces continue to place targets on municipal governments approving higher density. Image the reaction of this was a 10 story building. Honestly, it should be a 10 story building.

Source: https://www.timescolonist.com/local-...roject-7731800