Queen's Park Politics

[travis3000]

The Cons could still win this thing. The write up on 308 states that while the Liberals will most likely win a minority, the Tories could technically still come up the middle and get a minority themselves. Especially if the NDP over-performs. This one is far from settled. The writer on 308 says this is one of the most difficult elections he's covered due to each pollster having their own results which vary dramatically.

Again, here's my final prediction for tonight. I look forward to checking back and seeing how it fared!

My final prediction:

LIBERALS: 48 seats

CONS: 38 seats

NDP: 21 seats

Verdict: Liberal Minority.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

This makes me think in a future election - what would it take for the Liberals to be defeated?

A decent alternative?

[SteelTown]

Going to be a low voter turnout.

Asked the lady at the voting booth what's the turnout been like and so far only 26% have voted in my polling area.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

This makes me think in a future election - what would it take for the Liberals to be defeated?

An opposing party with a plan (NDP has no plan) that doesn't destroy our core values (PCs are too business/TO oriented).

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by vid

Oh, hahaha, you didn't read the date!

Tim Hudak was for cancelling the gas plants before he was against it! Same with the HST—back in 2010 when it was imposed, he flipped his shit, apparently ignorant of the fact that instituting the HST had been PC policy for several years before that. I found the reversal very strange, because all small businesses owners that I know prefer the new system. It's much easier for them to work with.

Oups. That's back in the 2011 campaign. My bad.

Libs should have used that in their campaign: "sure we blew 1 billion dollars canceling the gas plant, but the PCs would have done the same if elected in 2011".

[Cre47]

There are two other elements that would play against the PC. First, the PC will win many ridings with a percentage of over 50% to even 60% in some cases (Ottawa Valley, rural central Ontario, Seaway Valley, Muskoka, rural SW) whilist, the Liberals will likely win many GTA area ridings with less than 5% advantage over the PC or in Toronto proper over the NDP. The PC would probably need a 4-5 point lead just to win a minority because of this and maybe a 10-point in hopes for a majority (which of course won't happen). Second disadvantage for the Tories is that there is not a lot of other right wing or far-right wing parties that have a lot of votes that could be decided to vote strategically PC as opposed to the progressive vote in which there are about 25% of the vote in addition to the Liberals and I would guess there might be at least a good 5 of the those 25% that might end up as a strategic vote to block the PC.

Locally, hum it might stay the same for all ridings (sadly Kanata will be forgotten once again thanks to the rural areas of their riding). I know the Pc seem to have an advantage in Orleans, Glengarry and West Nepean, but the Ekos poll which showed a 2-1 lead for the PC at one point now shows a Liberal lead in the East. The polling in the East has been extremely volatile, but the more likely scenario is that it might be a slight edge to the PC in the East. Sounds like the LRT mix-up might hurt the PC in Ottawa proper.

[waterloowarrior]

list of projections
http://www.threehundredeight.com/201...y-liberal.html

Lib 49
PC 36
NDP 22

http://www.electionprediction.org/2013_on/index.php Election Prediction Project final projection... they have been over 90% accurate the last three ON elections

Lib 48
PC 39
NDP 20

http://blogues.journaldemontreal.com/tooclosetocall/
Liberal 47
Progressive Conservative 38
New Democratic 21

http://www.lispop.ca/Ontarioseatprojection.html

Lib 49
PC 38
NDP 20

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/
Lib 52
PC 32
NDP 23

Forum Research - Liberal Majority http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/6...nt-in-ontario/
Lib - 57
PC - 37
NDP - 13

[haljackey]

In light of the lowest ever voter turnout prediction, I present you this.

Forcing someone to vote isn't democracy. People for years have fought for a right to vote but at the same time they have fought for a right to choose. We live in a free and democratic society where voting is not mandatory.

• Video Link


How low can the turnout be? We shall see...



What voters will be like tomorrow, judging on how much the main parties suck:

• Video Link

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Cre47

There are two other elements that would play against the PC. First, the PC will win many ridings with a percentage of over 50% to even 60% in some cases (Ottawa Valley, rural central Ontario, Seaway Valley, Muskoka, rural SW) whilist, the Liberals will likely win many GTA area ridings with less than 5% advantage over the PC or in Toronto proper over the NDP. The PC would probably need a 4-5 point lead just to win a minority because of this and maybe a 10-point in hopes for a majority (which of course won't happen). Second disadvantage for the Tories is that there is not a lot of other right wing or far-right wing parties that have a lot of votes that could be decided to vote strategically PC as opposed to the progressive vote in which there are about 25% of the vote in addition to the Liberals and I would guess there might be at least a good 5 of the those 25% that might end up as a strategic vote to block the PC.

Locally, hum it might stay the same for all ridings (sadly Kanata will be forgotten once again thanks to the rural areas of their riding). I know the Pc seem to have an advantage in Orleans, Glengarry and West Nepean, but the Ekos poll which showed a 2-1 lead for the PC at one point now shows a Liberal lead in the East. The polling in the East has been extremely volatile, but the more likely scenario is that it might be a slight edge to the PC in the East. Sounds like the LRT mix-up might hurt the PC in Ottawa proper.

I think the necessary PC lead mostly depends on what the Toronto area Liberal lead is. If the Liberals end up with a massive lead in the 416, they will be wasting votes themselves (my prediction remains a Liberal sweep - clean sweep - of the urban GTA). But if the NDP closes the gap, then indeed the PC's have a vote disadvantage even if they win the popular vote.

[waterloowarrior]

For reference current makeup is
Lib 48
PC 37
NDP 21

[waterloowarrior]

Global and CTV projecting Liberal win

[SteelTown]

It's early but Liberals have 56 seats in the lead so far.

[SteelTown]

CBC predict a Liberal government.

[SteelTown]

Gooooooooodbye Hudak.

[Gun'eeu]

delete

[SteelTown]

Now they're saying we'll have a liberal majority government.

[niwell]

Holy shit. Liberal majority likely - that was NOT expected. Hudak (and probably Horwath) is DONE. Even for those who are (rightly) annoyed at the liberals, I think that should be the one silver lining in the results.

Well looks like I will still have a job for the next while!

[lrt's friend]

Hurray! PC Randall Denley looks like he is going down to resounding defeat in Ottawa West-Nepean. Looks like all the Ottawa swing ridings are going Liberal thanks to Hudak's gaffe regarding LRT funding.

[waterloowarrior]

CTV and CP24 projecting Lib majority

[SteelTown]

CBC project Liberal majority government!!!