The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by milomilo

London has been doing a version of this for years. A ban is likely unworkable by 2030, but a congestion charge could work.

London exempts EVs from the congestion tax, but it doesn’t ban ICEs.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Something to keep in mind is what a difference a decade makes when talking technological change. In 2010, only a third of Canadians had a smartphone (and most of those were tiny screen Blackberries) and 4 in 5 had a cellphone. A decade later smartphone penetration is 86% in Canada (and most of those are definitely touchscreen).

Now cars are obviously much more expensive and slower to change. But it's easy to forget how much progress has been made on BEVs in a decade. A decade ago, the Leaf was a crap compliance car, with no battery thermal management that had 73 miles of range and cost US$25k. That was the only option. Today, you can get a Tesla Model 3 with substantial automation and 263 miles of range for US$38k. And Tesla says they'll be able to offer a $25k car rated for at least 200 miles in the next 3-5 years with their newer batteries. Just imagine what will be on offer by 2030.

The crazy part? Till now, it really was only Tesla that was truly committed to EV development. Now the race is on, with automakers starting to understand that the transition may be an existential threat. Governments are pouring in money, not just for R&D, but to help their auto sectors retool factories, etc. In the next 2-3 years, BEV offerings are going to explode.

I think the changeover is really going to become obvious when people start seeing electric pickup trucks in their neighborhoods, on their streets. And all the electric delivery vans from Amazon, Walmart, etc., and service vehicles from the plumber to the utility repairman.

In 10 years with heavy subsidies EVs have a 3.88% market share in 2020. They have made inroads in only one segment (small luxury sedans, which were a niche market before). Most manufacturers are still charging a 50-100% premium over their similar ICE offerings. A Nissan Leaf starts at $31k in the US, at best it has kept up with inflation. That certainly could change, except so far manufacturers have put technology gains into range and not price (just as ICE manufacturers have put technology gains into engine power and not fuel efficiency).

I agree EV pickups at Walmart would indicate a paradigm shift, but I don’t think that will happen until EV pickups are much closer in price.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

In 10 years with heavy subsidies EVs have a 3.88% market share in 2020.

I hope you aren't betting a good chunk of your portfolio on such an assumption. Even the oil majors aren't this pessimistic on EVs these days.

Also VW says they'll be able to compete without subsidies by 2025. Nobody doubts them because prices checks on battery pack prices by BNEF and McKinsey suggest that they are probably ahead of that schedule. There's suspicions that Tesla is actually at or even more competitive than parity with gas cars (US$100/kWh).

Originally Posted by acottawa

They have made inroads in only one segment (small luxury sedans, which were a niche market before). Most manufacturers are still charging a 50-100% premium over their similar ICE offerings. A Nissan Leaf starts at $31k in the US, at best it has kept up with inflation. That certainly could change, except so far manufacturers have put technology gains into range and not price (just as ICE manufacturers have put technology gains into engine power and not fuel efficiency).

You seemed to have missed the point. The performance-cost ratio is improving dramatically, with median performance of all EVs getting closer and closer to the median performance and price of a gas car every year. When EVs reach a point where the median BEV has the same range as a median gas car (400 mi/640 km) at the same median price ($35K in Canada), there won't be much of a reason to buy a gas or diesel vehicle. We'll see that point sometime this decade.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I agree EV pickups at Walmart would indicate a paradigm shift, but I don’t think that will happen until EV pickups are much closer in price.

You'll see it a lot sooner. There's plenty of folks who buy a pickup for the lifestyle aspect. Camping, moving furniture, offroading, etc. They don't need the range or full towing capacity. And for them, buying an electric pickup truck is great. Not much of a premium on purchase cost for the trimmed out trucks this set usually buys, but a fraction of the operating cost.


In the end, there's no point debating this. I look forward to the flood of models coming in the next 2 years that will substantially change this debate. Until those show up in Canada, discussions like these will just keep going in circles because skeptics will keep resorting to anecdotes about why Canada is such a special and unique laggard on vehicle electrification.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Even if price parity happens mid-decade (which is entirely speculative), the vast majority of cars on the road are still going to be ICEs by 2030. Maybe 2040.

Never said otherwise. But when discussing the ban on ICE in downtown Montreal, what's relevant is where Quebec and Montreal will be. They'll definitely be ahead of the rest of Canada. So using your neighbourhood in Ottawa as a baseline would be misleading.

I fail to see the policy as any different than other incentives, like allowing EVs to use HOV lanes in Toronto. Wanna drive in downtown Montreal? Buy an EV. But I suspect that the policy will have plenty of holes though. Probably exemptions for out-of-province vehicles. And service vehicles. Etc.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Never said otherwise. But when discussing the ban on ICE in downtown Montreal, what's relevant is where Quebec and Montreal will be. They'll definitely be ahead of the rest of Canada. So using your neighbourhood in Ottawa as a baseline would be misleading.

I fail to see the policy as any different than other incentives, like allowing EVs to use HOV lanes in Toronto. Wanna drive in downtown Montreal? Buy an EV. But I suspect that the policy will have plenty of holes though. Probably exemptions for out-of-province vehicles. And service vehicles. Etc.

Other incentives (like HOV lanes) don’t actually prevent you from using the roads. Limiting the central part of the province’s largest city (where things like major hospitals are located, for example), to a small number of affluent people is not only profoundly unfair, it is also electoral suicide.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Peggerino

Nice. While I'm not a believer at all of electric vehicles making much headway in solving climate change ...

In Quebec it does. EVs are running on fully renewable energy that's pretty much emissions-free (turbines in northern rivers).

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Other incentives (like HOV lanes) don’t actually prevent you from using the roads. Limiting the central part of the province’s largest city (where things like major hospitals are located, for example), to a small number of affluent people is not only profoundly unfair, it is also electoral suicide.

Lol. "Unfair". I'm sure to the folks who rely on public transit this is going to be entertaining. There's nothing unfair about it. Roads are public infrastructure meant to be used in accordance with the manner deemed to be in the public interest. It's no more fair or unfair that say pedestrianizing a district or restricting heavy vehicles for noise and air pollution reasons.

As for electoral suicide, leave that to the people of Montreal. They can vote her out if they think the proposal is too harsh. All I'll say is that under her leadership, Montreal seems to be moving in an urban friendly direction while Ottawa descends further into becoming a glorified suburb.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The is truly one of the most elitists and repugnant proposals I have ever seen.

Electric cars are still the perfew of the wealthy and will remain so for years to come. Price parity is a very long way off so Montreal is effectively stating that if you aren't wealthy enough to afford a new electric vehicle then you are not welcome. They might as well make the city a gated community or require an American Express Gold Card for admittance.

This is a classic example of well paid politicians and environmental policy wonks being completely detached from the realities of the average person.........let them eat cake.

Actually the poor in urban Montreal usually have no car; even the middle class often does not. My multi-millionaire friend who lives in the Mile End also has no car - he walks or takes the bus or subway.

That plan IMO is a reasonable incentive, akin to HOV lanes. If I want to drive to Montreal in my ICE car, I'll have to park on the South Shore and take the subway into the downtown. (Doable but maybe slightly annoying.) If I instead am an EV owner, I am rewarded for being green.

Of course, it'd be just easier to have a gas tax that makes anyone driving an ICE - in downtown Montreal or anywhere else - pay the actual costs of his pollution, and be done with it. (This would ALSO be an incentive to get an EV instead; much cheaper!)

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Peggerino

Nice. While I'm not a believer at all of electric vehicles making much headway in solving climate change this seems like a reasonable thing to do to make air quality a little bit better in a densely packed part of the city.

If Covid has taught us anything, it's that removing ICE vehicle pollution has an immediate and noticeable impact on air quality in urban centres.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Lol. "Unfair". I'm sure to the folks who rely on public transit this is going to be entertaining. There's nothing unfair about it. Roads are public infrastructure meant to be used in accordance with the manner deemed to be in the public interest. It's no more fair or unfair that say pedestrianizing a district or restricting heavy vehicles for noise and air pollution reasons.

As for electoral suicide, leave that to the people of Montreal. They can vote her out if they think the proposal is too harsh. All I'll say is that under her leadership, Montreal seems to be moving in an urban friendly direction while Ottawa descends further into becoming a glorified suburb.

Exactly. It would only be potentially electoral suicide if people who lived outside Montreal had the right to vote in Montreal.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if most Montrealers were perfectly fine with it.

My sis, a fairly typical person, has no car and takes the subway to work. Her bf, a millennial who likes tech, has a Tesla Model 3. I am sure they would both as voters be perfectly fine with this proposal.

[Truenorth00]

It's no more unfair or elitist than bridge tolls into New York or London's massive congestion charge.

This isn't even the big fight. In Paris, the mayor is moving to restrict all cars. Not just ICEVs. And that is a trend that will be catching on in more places. We are finally going back to building cities for people. Not cars.

Wanna live in a place where driving is easy and without restrictions? Stick to the burbs or your lower tier backwater.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. It would only be potentially electoral suicide if people who lived outside Montreal had the right to vote in Montreal.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if most Montrealers were perfectly fine with it.

It's not even all of Montreal. Just the downtown core.

And it's 10 years away. By that point I'm going to bet the 2030 Corolla will have the capabilities of the 2020 Tesla Model 3. And if it doesn't Toyota won't be around much longer after that.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's not even all of Montreal. Just the downtown core.

And it's 10 years away. By that point I'm going to bet the 2030 Corolla will have the capabilities of the 2020 Tesla Model 3. And if it doesn't Toyota won't be around much longer after that.

Even if that is the case, the 2020 ICE Corolla will still be on the road in 2030.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. It would only be potentially electoral suicide if people who lived outside Montreal had the right to vote in Montreal.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if most Montrealers were perfectly fine with it.

My sis, a fairly typical person, has no car and takes the subway to work. Her bf, a millennial who likes tech, has a Tesla Model 3. I am sure they would both as voters be perfectly fine with this proposal.

They vote in provincial elections. Municipalities have no constitutional status in Canada.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's no more unfair or elitist than bridge tolls into New York or London's massive congestion charge.

This isn't even the big fight. In Paris, the mayor is moving to restrict all cars. Not just ICEVs. And that is a trend that will be catching on in more places. We are finally going back to building cities for people. Not cars.

Wanna live in a place where driving is easy and without restrictions? Stick to the burbs or your lower tier backwater.

One is a one-off or reoccurring expense, the other requires an outlay in the tens of thousands of dollars.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lio45

Actually the poor in urban Montreal usually have no car; even the middle class often does not. My multi-millionaire friend who lives in the Mile End also has no car - he walks or takes the bus or subway.

That plan IMO is a reasonable incentive, akin to HOV lanes. If I want to drive to Montreal in my ICE car, I'll have to park on the South Shore and take the subway into the downtown. (Doable but maybe slightly annoying.) If I instead am an EV owner, I am rewarded for being green.

Of course, it'd be just easier to have a gas tax that makes anyone driving an ICE - in downtown Montreal or anywhere else - pay the actual costs of his pollution, and be done with it. (This would ALSO be an incentive to get an EV instead; much cheaper!)

The number of cars in Montreal is growing faster than the population.

https://www.mtlblog.com/en-ca/news/m...ts-a-nightmare

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Even if that is the case, the 2020 ICE Corolla will still be on the road in 2030.

And? The whole point of a 10-yr date is to give warning to anyone intending to live in Montreal and drive to the downtown core that they'll have to avoid plan for an EV by 2030. That warning also compels auto dealers to make sure there's a supply of EVs available to dealerships around Montreal. Come to 2030 those 2020 Corollas may still be on the road, by the chances of them being near Montreal will be slim.

Originally Posted by acottawa

One is a one-off or reoccurring expense, the other requires an outlay in the tens of thousands of dollars.

There's a really cheap alternative: public transit.

There's no god given right to drive anywhere and everywhere you want, with whatever type of vehicle you want.
Communities get to decide what vehicles they want on their roads, and when and where you get to use them.

Originally Posted by acottawa

They vote in provincial elections. Municipalities have no constitutional status in Canada.

That may be true, but Montrealers do vote in municipal elections and unless the provincial government is opposed to a policy, they should be able to pass it.

And I haven't heard a peep from Quebec's government saying they have a problem with this. Heck, they are planning on Canada's most aggressive car transition with new ICE sales ban in 2035. And possibly limiting any new dealerships to solely EVs much earlier than that.

I think it's likely that as the tech improves and costs drop in the coming 3-5 years (a whole lotta new battery tech from Tesla to Quantumscape is coming out), it'll be much easier to move up new ICEV sales bans. I suspect Quebec moves up their ICEV sales date to 2030 as well, by 2025.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The number of cars in Montreal is growing faster than the population.

https://www.mtlblog.com/en-ca/news/m...ts-a-nightmare

A good reason why they need to start restricting at least some cars......

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Other incentives (like HOV lanes) don’t actually prevent you from using the roads. Limiting the central part of the province’s largest city (where things like major hospitals are located, for example), to a small number of affluent people is not only profoundly unfair, it is also electoral suicide.

I don’t think there’s much to get excited about here, for anyone who read the full article, Mr. Miele’s comments seem to put this plan in perspective along with other virtuous plans that governments have announced. On the other hand if you believe Quebec will meet their goal of having 1.5 million EV’s on the road by 2030 , everyone in Montreal will be driving an EV!

Ensemble Montreal’s Miele said he doesn’t consider even the specific measure of banning non-electric cars downtown by 2030, ahead of the Quebec government’s target to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035, to be credible. That’s because the Projet Montréal administration has yet to provide dates for its existing environmental commitments, such as when it will start producing a carbon budget and when it will ban oil heating systems, he said.

In other news....

”The province of Quebec has narrowly missed its stated goal of getting 100,000 electric cars on its roads by 2020. As the year slides to a close, they’re shy — but not by much. Some 92,000 battery-powered vehicles is close enough for Quebec Electric Vehicle Association (AVEQ) president and founder Simon-Pierre Rioux, who published the latest statistics.

The first incentive program, now called Roule Verte, was started in 2012. While Rioux is satisfied with the results, he says “[t]here were a lot of obstacles to buying an electric car, whether it was the additional costs compared to a gasoline-powered car, the anemic charging infrastructure, [and] the lack of availability at dealerships.”

Robert Poëti, head of an industry group that represents Quebec’s auto dealers, discredits the influence of the pandemic on sluggish sales.Poëti suggests instead the real problem is cost. “People who have [an electric car], they’re men who are on average 46 years old,” he said. “Their salary ranges between $70,000 and $80,000.”He doesn’t argue the lack of infrastructure is an issue, but adds that Quebec’s tough winters – which have an impact on an EV’s driving range – is also an issue. “I can’t bring Gaspésie closer to Quebec and I can’t bring Abitibi closer to Montreal,” he said.

Quebec’s electric sales account for about half of all EVs sold in Canada. Rioux points to a bright future – and a new goal of 1.5 million EVs on Quebec’s roads by 2030”

https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/qu...e-sales-target

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's no more unfair or elitist than bridge tolls into New York or London's massive congestion charge.

This isn't even the big fight. In Paris, the mayor is moving to restrict all cars. Not just ICEVs. And that is a trend that will be catching on in more places. We are finally going back to building cities for people. Not cars.

Wanna live in a place where driving is easy and without restrictions? Stick to the burbs or your lower tier backwater.

Banning all cars or a congestion charge effects everyone and not just the lower incomes who can't afford a BEV.

Of course another thing to bear in mind is that these new supposedly zero emissions vehicles result in people having to buy a new car. In other words, all the pollution that comes from building and transporting them as opposed to none for doing so for used cars.

Despite Montreal's desired goal of bringing down emissions, this is elitism 101. If they ban ALL cars it wouldn't be but instead they are banning all affordable ones.