The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

At least 70% of vehicle sales must be ZEVs to achieve Ottawa's emissions plan: report

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/at-least...port-1.1630972

What are the chances we get to 70% by 2030? Zero emissions vehicle sales comprised 3.5% of total vehicle sales in 2020

70%?

Considering, buses, large dump trucks and the like, towing rigs, etc, wouldn't that mean we would have to probably have near 100% of personal vehicle sales be electric in order to hit a 70% total?

I don't think this is achievable with current mindsets and incentives, and technology for that matter.

[Truenorth00]

The article said 30% on the road, meaning 70% of sales by 2030.
The road fleet mix lags the sales mix by 5-7 years.

[milomilo]

I really don't think it's too long before gas vehicles are obviously old technology.

I remember when I was a teenager building my first gaming rig. It was at the point where LCDs were around and were obviously lighter, but CRTs still had better technical specs. A few years later when I upgraded my PC, it was obvious CRTs were garbage and I got a 24" widescreen LCD and threw my heavy ass 19" CRT in the trash.

I'm still of the opinion that EVs aren't there yet. But the way things are going is obvious. It's only going to take a little more range, a little faster charging and decent pricing for EVs to become the obvious choice. And once that happens, development on gas cars will go the way development on CRT monitors did.

[Truenorth00]

I've sort of discussed this before. Parity will be different in different places. Countries where the distances traveled are shorter, the climate is milder and vehicles are smaller will start seeing parity at around $100/kWh in 3-4 years. Want to drive a pickup truck 500 km in a Prairie winter, with a 1000 lb trailer attached? Might need $60/kWh, which won't happen till 2030. Of course, in this, there are variations with some categories hitting parity sooner than later.

I think a lot of the soccer mom SUVs and CUVs will hit parity in the 2026-2028 time frame. Small sedans too. So it's easy to imagine 30-50% of sales going electric by the end of the decade. More than that would require serious breakthroughs on batteries.

[lio45]

When 50% of the sales are electric (and climbing), who's going to be foolish enough to make up the other 50% by paying large sums for technology that's going to be obsolete soon? Anyone not yet ready for electric can likely pick up a used ICE vehicle for a song at that point.

Right now electric is still niche enough that anyone who's not too visionary can just plunk several tens of thousands on an ICE vehicle like they'd have been doing at any point during the last few decades, forgetting electric vehicles even exist or not giving them any thought. This changes when it becomes obvious there's a giant irreversible switch happening.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

When 50% of the sales are electric (and climbing), who's going to be foolish enough to make up the other 50% by paying large sums for technology that's going to be obsolete soon? Anyone not yet ready for electric can likely pick up a used ICE vehicle for a song at that point.

It's an interesting question. And we won't really have an answer until we see how the various electric pickups do in the market. It's all a question of how much more you'd pay for an EV. I think a 10-15% premium on a similarly spec'd, long range SUV or CUV would work. Getting range on a truck with load, is way more difficult and easily starts getting into premiums of 20-50% to get the desired load and ranges. I'm not sure most buyers would pay that. This is why I can see a market where most SUVs and CUVs are going electric, but those who really need to tow stick with gas or diesel longer.

[lio45]

Electric Ford Focus. Used. ~$8,000. I'm tempted

https://www.jnauto.com/detail_page_e...EV/2012/vendre

[lio45]

I'm wondering if that car could replace my pickups, if equipped with a hitch. Surely it's got enough torque to tow a large trailer?

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's an interesting question. And we won't really have an answer until we see how the various electric pickups do in the market. It's all a question of how much more you'd pay for an EV. I think a 10-15% premium on a similarly spec'd, long range SUV or CUV would work. Getting range on a truck with load, is way more difficult and easily starts getting into premiums of 20-50% to get the desired load and ranges. I'm not sure most buyers would pay that. This is why I can see a market where most SUVs and CUVs are going electric, but those who really need to tow stick with gas or diesel longer.

I think at this point, at least in western Canada, there is/will be great ambivalence to purchasing a EV Truck for the simple fact that charging infrastructure is not yet here. Populations are so spread out here compared to the GTA at least, that there really isn't much infrastructure that could alleviate those concerns of difficulty of charging... I'm not necessarily speaking of those daily commutes in and around the city, cause there is in my opinion enough to support them, rather, the hundreds of thousands that get out of the city N/E/S/W of the city from 45 minutes away to 3+ hours away, to enjoy camping or to the lake (which there is very limited selection to go to). Or even for the tens of thousands of people who commute weekly through the Calgary-Edmonton corridor. The only major city between Calgary & Edmonton is Red Deer, which is roughly 1.5 hrs between the two. etc... infrastructure must be a top priority for the government in order to make a successful transition, especially for us out west, before the EVs can take the market.

Note that I was in the GTA, Vaughn specifically, and I did notice the abundance of Tesla's throughout, which was cool to see. I just think that perhaps a function of the uptick in EVs in the GTA is because it is such a massive metropolitan area that supports the infrastructure, that we just don't have out west.

[Truenorth00]

I really wouldn't worry that much admit the long range charging infrastructure. Petro Canada and Tesla have both covered the Trans Canada. Electrify Canada is offering to do that and more by 2025. And really, most people aren't driving out into the boonies far enough and for long enough, for this to really be an issue for the bulk of the population.

Cost of the vehicles and urban infrastructure are probably bigger barriers for most, for the foreseeable future. Especially, if prices don't come down quickly. There's nothing that says automakers have to lower prices quickly if demand for EVs is high. They can make them the upsell vehicle.

[Hackslack]

Also, apparently 13.9% of the population, or 2.1 million households, own an RV. EV SUV's and trucks must become a reliable vehicle to pull these RVs, accounting for the longest trips and longest length of time people spend RVing... I'm just mentioning these as things to consider for the EVs to take over market share. I couldnt see RV owners owning separate vehicles strictly to tow RVs

[Truenorth00]

This week's Economist. Dunno if anybody else is a subscriber.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This week's Economist. Dunno if anybody else is a subscriber.

I've subscribed since '98.

[Big_Chungus]

You will never be a real truck. You have terrible load capacity and will never be able to displace diesel trucks. Until energy density improves massively, there won't be a big shift when it comes to freight, or even towing (since the power/weight ratio sucks to EVs and you can't tow as much if you're hauling around your energy source).

When I do get a car, I'm definitely getting an ICE. I want the range and the ability to go off the grid.

• Video Link

[Big_Chungus]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What outcome I want is irrelevant, just as what outcome you want is irrelevant. The math is the math. Just because you don’t like the math doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. There is no current path to sub 2 degree warming.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-have-we-spent

He's right you know. Short of everyone taking the Ted Pill and destroying all technological progress made since 1700, we're going above 2ºC warming. The only solution is carbon capture and storage, which will hopefully buy us just enough time to get to net zero emissions.

We basically need a revolution when it comes to land use to completely obliterate car culture. As Truenorth said, cut off all federal funding for highways and auto infrastructure. I would even say no federal funds to charging infrastructure. Only federal funds for public transit/active transportation infrastructure.

And there doesn't seem to be a solution, since all the mayors are in the back pocket of developers and continue building hideous, financially and ecologically unsustainable sprawl.

[lio45]

My sis came to visit in her Tesla which of course made me want one, and I've looked at used Model Ss, but my driving profile is the worst for EVs. I frequently have to drive for at least couple hours without advance notice, I need flexibility and unlimited range.

Plus, electricity isn't free. I average ~5 liters / 100 km in this newish Ford Focus, it's about only double what a Tesla would cost to operate. Financially, it's not worth it to save a couple grand a year in fuel costs. And environmentally speaking, there are many more things I have done and can continue to do that have a greater impact than my driving. (Planting trees, converting buildings to electric)

[Truenorth00]

5L/100 km is well above average fuel economy for cars on the road. So there's no need to buy an EV to assuage whatever ecoguilt you have.

The entire point about all this is that not that people go out of their way to buy new EVs, but that they consider EVs when they are ready to car shop. If you have a "newish Ford Focus", there's no point replacing it just. Get 4 more years out of it and the options you'll have in 2025-2026 with the second to third generation platform EVs from most automakers will be spectacular.

[ssiguy]

Battery long-haul trucking is pie in the sky and everyone in the industry knows as do people in air travel, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, freight, cargo, and long distance passenger rail. Hydrogen is the ONLY option for any of these applications.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

I think at this point, at least in western Canada, there is/will be great ambivalence to purchasing a EV Truck for the simple fact that charging infrastructure is not yet here. Populations are so spread out here compared to the GTA at least, that there really isn't much infrastructure that could alleviate those concerns of difficulty of charging... I'm not necessarily speaking of those daily commutes in and around the city, cause there is in my opinion enough to support them, rather, the hundreds of thousands that get out of the city N/E/S/W of the city from 45 minutes away to 3+ hours away, to enjoy camping or to the lake (which there is very limited selection to go to). Or even for the tens of thousands of people who commute weekly through the Calgary-Edmonton corridor. The only major city between Calgary & Edmonton is Red Deer, which is roughly 1.5 hrs between the two. etc... infrastructure must be a top priority for the government in order to make a successful transition, especially for us out west, before the EVs can take the market.

Totally agree. I am looking forward to driving an EV but I am a thrifty shopper and I won't pay a premium for one. I want the lower cost option that doesn't require a huge sacrifice of convenience.

My wife drives a 2013 CUV that we are thinking about replacing next year or the year after. It's the vehicle we tend to use for work trips and any longer drives. So range is a major consideration.

It seems to me that if I buy in 2023, it's very unlikely that EVs will make the most sense unless I want to pay a premium up front for possible savings down the road from lower operating costs and reduced depreciation (neither of which seems all that certain to me).

I admit that if I lived in Windsor, Quebec City or any point in between my outlook on that would probably be a bit different. My outlook might also be different if I lived Vancouver or Halifax for that matter.

By contrast, my second vehicle is a 2015 sedan and given that it has never had to leave the Winnipeg area I think it's fairly likely that it will be replaced by a EV when I set out to replace it in another 7 or 8 years.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by esquire

Totally agree. I am looking forward to driving an EV but I am a thrifty shopper and I won't pay a premium for one. I want the lower cost option that doesn't require a huge sacrifice of convenience.

My wife drives a 2013 CUV that we are thinking about replacing next year or the year after. It's the vehicle we tend to use for work trips and any longer drives. So range is a major consideration.

It seems to me that if I buy in 2023, it's very unlikely that EVs will make the most sense unless I want to pay a premium up front for possible savings down the road from lower operating costs and reduced depreciation (neither of which seems all that certain to me).

I admit that if I lived in Windsor, Quebec City or any point in between my outlook on that would probably be a bit different. My outlook might also be different if I lived Vancouver or Halifax for that matter.

By contrast, my second vehicle is a 2015 sedan and given that it has never had to leave the Winnipeg area I think it's fairly likely that it will be replaced by a EV when I set out to replace it in another 7 or 8 years.

Not sure why your post in particular did it for me, but I just bought a new truck this year, and it occurred to me that this is likely the last ICE vehicle I will own.

I expect to get at least 5 years out of it, so say 2026. I think that's getting dangerously close to the are of not buying new ICE vehicles.

If you buy a new ICE in 2026, finance over 5 years, you're in 2031. ICE vehicle ban being 4 short years away, I imagine the impacts of that will surely be felt on the used market by then?

Anyway - I got Tacoma in hopes of driving it into the ground, which in fairness should be a heck of a lot longer than 5 years given their reputation.