The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[urbandreamer]

The smartest way to reduce carbon emissions: stop using concrete for residential construction and stop flying so much. Last mile shipping can be via EV delivery vehicles while longer hall by rail.

[Architype]

I see a lot of bravado in this thread, but the certainty of EV dominance as a bulletproof environmental solution purely depends upon how well the technology can become indisputably superior, including its total environmental/carbon footprint.

[SpongeG]

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive
High inflation, interest rates keeping more people from buying or leasing a car this year

Author of the article: Victoria Wells
Published Mar 20, 2024

A higher cost of living is keeping many Canadians from entering the housing market, but it also appears to be putting the brakes on their intentions to buy a car.

Article content
More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year, with 46 per cent saying they’re not likely to do so thanks to elevated inflation, according to an annual survey from car sharing marketplace Turo Inc. and Leger Marketing Inc. Similarly, high interest rates are stopping 47 per cent from taking the plunge. In comparison, last year 39 per cent said purchasing or leasing a vehicle was off the table.

...

https://financialpost.com/news/canad...-too-expensive

[Architype]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive
High inflation, interest rates keeping more people from buying or leasing a car this year

Author of the article: Victoria Wells
Published Mar 20, 2024

A higher cost of living is keeping many Canadians from entering the housing market, but it also appears to be putting the brakes on their intentions to buy a car.

Article content
More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year, with 46 per cent saying they’re not likely to do so thanks to elevated inflation, according to an annual survey from car sharing marketplace Turo Inc. and Leger Marketing Inc. Similarly, high interest rates are stopping 47 per cent from taking the plunge. In comparison, last year 39 per cent said purchasing or leasing a vehicle was off the table.

...

https://financialpost.com/news/canad...-too-expensive

Mr. Wonderful told us this years ago, he can't be wrong can he??

Kevin O'Leary: Don't Ever Buy A Car
• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Architype

I see a lot of bravado in this thread, but the certainty of EV dominance as a bulletproof environmental solution purely depends upon how well the technology can become indisputably superior, including its total environmental/carbon footprint.

It's not about a "bulletproof environmental solution". There's no such thing. It's just a strawman people live to use to beat up on EVs. But we now have plenty of evidence that EVs are definitely cleaner than the alternative at least:

...According to a new report by BloombergNEF, in all analyzed cases, EVs have lower lifecycle emissions than gas cars. Just how much lower depends on how far they are driven, and the cleanliness of the grid where they charge.

....To determine the breakeven point, BloombergNEF looked at five different regions: the US, China, Germany, the UK and Japan. In any of these markets, the lifecycle CO2 emissions of a medium-sized BEV manufactured today and driven for 250,000 kilometers (155,000 miles) would be
27-71% lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles.

A driver in the US would reach the breakeven point at 41,000 km – or in around two years of driving, assuming an average annual distance traveled of around 19,000 km. In China, meanwhile, the breakeven distance would fall at 118,000 km, or after roughly 10 years, due to the region’s fossil-fuel-heavy grid.

With zero-emission generation on the rise worldwide, that breakeven point could come a lot sooner by the end of the decade.

Across the five markets surveyed, the lifecycle breakeven falls to between one and four years for a BEV manufactured in 2030. A driver in the US will only need to travel about 21,000 kilometers, or around a year’s worth of driving, for a BEV to be cleaner than an ICE. A driver in China would still need longer than drivers in other areas surveyed, but it would take them only 53,000 km – or slightly over four years – to reach the breakeven point.
...

https://about.bnef.com/blog/no-doubt...than-gas-cars/

Plenty of nice charts in the article above if anybody is interested.

EVs are already doing quite well in several large markets and segments. And are now deploying in areas nobody thought would happen for a while. Bloomberg NEF recently pointed this out:

...Over 5,600 electric or fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty trucks were sold in China in the final month of the year. That was a remarkable 10% of the total, and pulled the tally for all types of commercial EV sales in China to over 330,000 for the year. Light commercial EVs in China took 16% of the market in December.
....
Those may seem like modest numbers, but heavy trucks were supposed to be one of the hardest segments to electrify, and many groups expected them to keep oil demand in the country growing for years to come. Hitting 10% of the market is meaningful, and puts them just a few years behind passenger cars.

There’s now a growing list of areas where industry commentators thought electrification would struggle to make inroads, from buses to ferries. Reaching this level of sales in the world’s largest auto market, even if just for a month, means it’s probably time to add heavy trucks to that list.
...

https://about.bnef.com/blog/chinas-c...own-narrative/

There's a reason I say that the tech and markets will do what policy cannot.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Posthaste: Canadians hit the brakes on car ownership, say it's too expensive
High inflation, interest rates keeping more people from buying or leasing a car this year

Author of the article: Victoria Wells
Published Mar 20, 2024

A higher cost of living is keeping many Canadians from entering the housing market, but it also appears to be putting the brakes on their intentions to buy a car.

Article content
More people are walking back plans to buy or lease a vehicle this year, with 46 per cent saying they’re not likely to do so thanks to elevated inflation, according to an annual survey from car sharing marketplace Turo Inc. and Leger Marketing Inc. Similarly, high interest rates are stopping 47 per cent from taking the plunge. In comparison, last year 39 per cent said purchasing or leasing a vehicle was off the table.

...

https://financialpost.com/news/canad...-too-expensive

Cars are and have always been a terrible money pits. This is why the rise of gigantic SUVs and pickup truck is both disappointing and surprising. It's really hard for me to feel sorry for anybody complaining about cost of living driving a large vehicle. The only exception to that, are tradespeople who need a truck. But we probably have an order of magnitude more trucks on the road than tradespeople.

Jason Slaughter of Not Just Bikes and Reece Martin of RM Transit did a great podcast recently on how much car ownership actually costs. Was a great listen.

• Video Link

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Cars are and have always been a terrible money pits. This is why the rise of gigantic SUVs and pickup truck is both disappointing and surprising. It's really hard for me to feel sorry for anybody complaining about cost of living driving a large vehicle. The only exception to that, are tradespeople who need a truck. But we probably have an order of magnitude more trucks on the road than tradespeople.

Jason Slaughter of Not Just Bikes and Reece Martin of RM Transit did a great podcast recently on how much car ownership actually costs. Was a great listen.

• Video Link

I've gone over this several times - cars are indeed expensive. They do NOT need to be *that* expensive though. Running a high-mileage, older, reliable model can be done for about twice the cost of a bus pass provided you have somewhere to park it.

No doubt transit is cheaper. But is a car a real luxury? Not really. It certainly doesn't have to cost $1,000+ a month to own and operate.

There is a good chunk of the population where $400 a month is too much money and the bus is the best way forward, but outside of Canada's biggest cities, a car is such a huge leap forward in quality of life over even the best bus networks that I would argue it's well worth that $200 a month for basically anyone that has that money to spare.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I've gone over this several times - cars are indeed expensive. They do NOT need to be *that* expensive though. Running a high-mileage, older, reliable model can be done for about twice the cost of a bus pass provided you have somewhere to park it.

Twice the cost of a bus pass? Maybe if you drive 5000 km per year. I have the kind of car you are taking about. Gas, insurance, consumables (oil, tires, wipers, washer fluid) easily average out to $300-400 per month. Insurance alone is a $100/mo in many places. And we drive ~15 000 km per year, close to average in Canada. You're also assuming you never pay for parking anywhere and the car doesn't break down. Ever. You may be parking for free at home. But it's not likely that places you visit are always free.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

No doubt transit is cheaper. But is a car a real luxury? Not really. It certainly doesn't have to cost $1,000+ a month to own and operate.

I agree. But the fact that the average new car price is $66k and used car price is like $37k or thereabouts, says people have actually become habituated to $1k/mo car payments.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

There is a good chunk of the population where $400 a month is too much money and the bus is the best way forward, but outside of Canada's biggest cities, a car is such a huge leap forward in quality of life over even the best bus networks that I would argue it's well worth that $200 a month for basically anyone that has that money to spare.

It isn't about somebody outside a big city spending on a car. The real question is why so many folks inside big cities own them. Or more specifically why so many people inside big cities (whose metro areas have half of the country's population) own so many large and expensive cars. Average suburb has at least $80k sitting in their driveway these days. Not uncommon to find much more than that.

Bizarre too that as birth rates fall cars are getting more expensive. Fewer kids should mean fewer and smaller cars. But we're going the other way.

[Innsertnamehere]

As you've alluded, ultimately most Canadians have enough disposable income that spending $1,000+ a month on a car is a real option. That and they just aren't that smart with their money and just spend too much on their car in the first place.

If you are taking the bus everywhere and replace those trips with a car, you are probably only going to be doing 5,000kms a year anyway, FYI. People doing 15,000kms a year on their car are using it for far more than just replacing bus trips. And that's totally OK - it just has to be acknowledged in the comparison. It's a big reason why a car can be such a huge quality of life boost - the increase in mobility is massive, even in Canada's biggest cities.

Living in Toronto, a car doesn't do too much to make getting to work easier over taking transit, for sure, but it's still a huge upgrade in overall mobility. And that's why people still own them. Auto ownership rates in Central Toronto still hover around 50-60% IIRC, despite commuting modal share for driving being below 20%. There are a ton of people who own their car but don't use it to get to work.. and that's because they use the car for other reasons. We can argue whether it's worth owning a car in Downtown Toronto where parking costs are huge and the boost in mobility is at it's most marginal, but it's still a boost in mobility none the less. But there is still immense value in that additional mobility which many are clearly willing to pay quite a lot for.

I think it's a mistake to think that many / most Canadian's don't have a decent sized disposable income either. For most Canadians, they can handle a $400-$600 a month in costs for a car.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I've gone over this several times - cars are indeed expensive. They do NOT need to be *that* expensive though. Running a high-mileage, older, reliable model can be done for about twice the cost of a bus pass provided you have somewhere to park it.

No doubt transit is cheaper. But is a car a real luxury? Not really. It certainly doesn't have to cost $1,000+ a month to own and operate.

There is a good chunk of the population where $400 a month is too much money and the bus is the best way forward, but outside of Canada's biggest cities, a car is such a huge leap forward in quality of life over even the best bus networks that I would argue it's well worth that $200 a month for basically anyone that has that money to spare.

It's absolutely true that an older used car is a lot cheaper than buying new. But that's not a solution to the general fact of cars being expensive as a major part of the transportation system in general since it isn't scalable. There needs to be enough people spending the big bucks on new cars in order to supply the used market, and enough people buying low mileage used cars and then reselling them as high-mileage in order for enough high mileage used cars to be available to a significant number of people.

It would be impossible for significantly more people to switch from one category of buyer to another without prices for that category to skyrocket and nulify its benefits as an alternative. If a big chunk of new car buyers decided to switch to used, used car prices would jump, supply of used cars would drop (since there would be fewer people selling formerly new cars) and eventually the price would get high enough for used cars that the savings wouldn't be worth it to buy used instead of new.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It's absolutely true that an older used car is a lot cheaper than buying new. But that's not a solution to the general fact of cars being expensive as a major part of the transportation system in general since it isn't scalable. There needs to be enough people spending the big bucks on new cars in order to supply the used market, and enough people buying low mileage used cars and then reselling them as high-mileage in order for enough high mileage used cars to be available to a significant number of people.

It would be impossible for significantly more people to switch from one category of buyer to another without prices for that category to skyrocket and nulify its benefits as an alternative. If a big chunk of new car buyers decided to switch to used, used car prices would jump, supply of used cars would drop (since there would be fewer people selling formerly new cars) and eventually the price would get high enough for used cars that the savings wouldn't be worth it to buy used instead of new.

This is definitely true - but we live in a society where a significant part of the population does have the disposable income to buy expensive automobiles. So it works out.

[Truenorth00]

If you have a car, you will use it. It's strange to think they people who have cars will just let them sit there and take the bus everywhere. In reality, once you get a car, insurance is a fixed monthly cost, so most people only think of two other costs: parking and gas. Of course, the other consumables do catch up with them, but people don't tend to notice though or even think of them at the moment when they are deciding whether to drive or take the bus for a certain trip.

We're a one car family who lives near transit. So for us transit acts as a second car in effect. One of us is often using transit, when the other needs the car. This can be true for a lot families. But it seems to be a choice people make to load up on debt instead.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

This is definitely true - but we live in a society where a significant part of the population does have the disposable income to buy expensive automobiles. So it works out.

The entire article is about how the portion of the population that can afford vehicles is shrinking.

[Nouvellecosse]

Also, nobody is disputing that many people can physically spend the money. But it's still a lot of money and perhaps not a good or efficient use of money. So designing a transportation system to favour an expensive, cost-inefficient mode compels people to spend a lot on that when there are other things the money would be better used for. So the criticism about them being expensive isn't necessarily just about whether or not one can physically afford it; it's that either way, it isn't optimal. Just like if someone complained that a certain task is very time consuming, and another person replied that many people physically have that many hours per week they can spend doing it.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It's absolutely true that an older used car is a lot cheaper than buying new. But that's not a solution to the general fact of cars being expensive as a major part of the transportation system in general since it isn't scalable. There needs to be enough people spending the big bucks on new cars in order to supply the used market, and enough people buying low mileage used cars and then reselling them as high-mileage in order for enough high mileage used cars to be available to a significant number of people.

It would be impossible for significantly more people to switch from one category of buyer to another without prices for that category to skyrocket and nulify its benefits as an alternative. If a big chunk of new car buyers decided to switch to used, used car prices would jump, supply of used cars would drop (since there would be fewer people selling formerly new cars) and eventually the price would get high enough for used cars that the savings wouldn't be worth it to buy used instead of new.

New cars are getting more expensive. And with that the cost of used cars is getting expensive too. So we see fleet age going up. People are driving cars for a lot longer, because we can't afford to replace them, at a higher level. And this truck/SUV boom is a huge part of the problem. More expensive to buy, fuel, insure and maintain. And the only real loser is the consumer. I am starting to warm up to the idea of Chinese EVs just to teach legacy automakers a lesson in setting up consumers like this.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Architype

I see a lot of bravado in this thread,

I see a lot of troglodytery
Switching from a car that pollutes GHGs every second it's on... to ones that don't just makes sense

Improvements in batteries, efficiencies and figuring out less harmful materials continues.
We are in the EV toddler stage still.

[whatnext]

The Vancouver Auto Show was this past week so I had a chance to look at some EVs side-by-side. What struck me about most was the driving position was odd. Like the footwells weren't deep enough or something. The worse were converted gas models. After sitting the Genesis G80 Electrified, I was thinking "why would they bother"? It felt like there was almost no proper legroom. The Cadillac Lyriq would probably be my first choice but the ICE vehicles felt better. The Tesla Cybertruck had a very long line, it seemed like every suburban baller wanted their picture taken inside of it.

Surprisingly one of the best looking sedans was the Toyota Mirai in bright blue. Easily their best looking vehicle but boy you could see how the hydrogen tanks compromised interior space. The rear seat room was laughably small for a big sedan and the centre console felt like the Great Wall of Toyota. There must be a battery or something there. There's an ICE Toyota Crown sedan in Japan that looks very similar, shame they didn't bring that here.

The show was very busy, especially with young people, so much for the "death of the car" narrative.

[urbandreamer]

Fisker has sunk to the bottom of the Ocean.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

The smartest way to reduce carbon emissions: stop using concrete for residential construction and stop flying so much. Last mile shipping can be via EV delivery vehicles while longer hall by rail.

Pretty sure stopping construction above 6 floors would increase in a big way carbon output. Resulting sprawl would increase both transport and housing emissions.

[urbandreamer]

Not if 1+1 became law: a family may only own 1 house and 1 vacation home. A house may not be flipped within 8 years. Existing SFH forbidden to be torn down or extensively renovated.

Nissan in their EV investor presentation today said they hope to achieve ICE/EV cost parity by 2030. Well, judging by $105,000 Kia EV9s languishing on dealer lots and the gap between ICE and EV prices, I suspect more inflation will result.