Full disclosure: I'm not affiliated with any party, but my politics tend to be centre-left: economically progressive and socially libertarian. I generally vote NDP since I live in Hamilton Centre and Christopherson is a strong candidate.
Also, my experience is that a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition to keep them honest is the best kind of federal government.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fastcarsfreedom
Dion is--and this is me being as unbiased as possible--in a precarious position. This election call was more than likely the result of very positive internal polling by the Conservatives
|
That's possible, but I think it's more likely that they're actually seeking a renewed mandate while the stars are still aligned in their favour:
* The economy is holding but widely expected to slide into recession (watch rising unemployment and falling house prices, while our biggest trading partner continues to tank).
* So far they've managed to stonewall the ethics committee's investigation of their alleged fundraising violations, but they can't hold off forever.
* The three by-elections scheduled for later this month seemed likely to unseat the incumbent party.
Also, while Harper's personal approval is the highest of the major parties (around 50%), his party's approval is statistically the same as it was in January 2006. That is, after two and a half years, he hasn't managed to convince Canadians to give him a majority.
He might be able to pull it off via the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, but it's a long shot. It seems more likely that he's hoping to produce at least a new minority before the s**t hits the fan.
Here's why: as you say, Dion is very precarious. If he fails to improve his party's fortunes in this election, there's a very good chance the party will turf him and start looking for another leader. That essentially buys Harper another couple of years at the helm even if he only wins another minority, since the Liberals will once again be in no position to challenge him.
This situation only takes place if Dion loses an election. If Harper did nothing and let the opposition vote non-confidence some time next year or let his Parliament make it to his fixed election date,
that election would likely be Dion's to lose.
It's a bold gamble, and though I don't like Harper's leadership style, I do admire how deftly he has managed parliament while he's been in power. It remains to be seen whether the other parties can hammer him enough in the next month to ratchet down his approval.
Stranger things have happened - don't forget David Peterson's disastrous snap election in 1990, which incredibly put Bob Rae's NDP in power for the next five years.
Prev
Linear Mode
