Lamenting the decline of the car

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Looks to me like a basic BMW M3 is about C$20k more than a Model 3 LR AWD with similar performance. Correct me if I'm wrong here:

BMW M3 - C$84.3k / 3.5s for 0-60mph

Model 3 LR AWD - C$64.99k / 4.2s



I always see two markets for expensive vehicles like these.

1) The actual racers who go to the track.

2) The midlife crisis dude with more money than sense who just wants bragging rights. Stoplight challenges are the most action they'll ever see.

The first market is exacting. Every fraction of a second counts. The second market? Well if all the rest of the accountant dads at your kid's daycare will be more impressed by the Tesla, that's what you will get. That's what I mean by stealing the soft market.

Add the 2.7K acceleration boost to the Tesla LR and that 0-60mph goes to 3.7 seconds. So its really

BMW M3 - C$84.3k / 3.5s for 0-60mph (auto vers)
Model 3 LR AWD - C67.69k / 3.7 seconds

So quite close. You'd need the model 3 performance to beat the BMW M3 though which does 0-60mph in 3.1 seconds.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Add the 2.7K acceleration boost to the Tesla LR and that 0-60mph goes to 3.7 seconds. So its really

BMW M3 - C$84.3k / 3.5s for 0-60mph (auto vers)
Model 3 LR AWD - C67.69k / 3.7 seconds

So quite close. You'd need the model 3 performance to beat the BMW M3 though which does 0-60mph in 3.1 seconds.

I'm going off the public website. Lest I be accused of being a fanboy. My point wasn't to the hackles of M series fans up. But mostly to point out that bang for buck is substantial with Tesla. For the non-enthusiast, who is likely to factor in cost, a sub 5 second car for a grocery getter is going to be about the best they've owned. Let alone sub 4 seconds with some options.

Moreover, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a 2024 LR AWD Model 3 with 4680 cells and structural battery actually comes close to 2021 BMW M3. I can't even imagine what a 2023 M3P would achieve. And still cheaper than a BMW M3. To buy and to operate.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm going off the public website. Lest I be accused of being a fanboy. My point wasn't to the hackles of M series fans up. But mostly to point out that bang for buck is substantial with Tesla. For the non-enthusiast, who is likely to factor in cost, a sub 5 second car for a grocery getter is going to be about the best they've owned. Let alone sub 4 seconds with some options.

Moreover, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a 2024 LR AWD Model 3 with 4680 cells and structural battery actually comes close to 2021 BMW M3. I can't even imagine what a 2023 M3P would achieve. And still cheaper than a BMW M3. To buy and to operate.

I agree with all your points. I've spoken to many of the new Tesla owners. Most of them came from BMW's/Lexus/Audi/Acura, a minority of others moved up from Accords/Fusion/Camry/VW.

Nobody thinks a Tesla 3 is on par with a BMW M3 performance wise, just that for the price it surprisingly does tick a lot of the boxes. And you also don't have to deal with the $350/month in premium gasoline or the synthetic oil changes/fuel flushes/engine filters/non stop brake changes. The savings are unreal and in the end you still get a super fun car to drive that will beat 99% of all cars on the road in any street race.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by travis3000

The savings are unreal and in the end you still get a super fun car to drive that will beat 99% of all cars on the road in any street race.

I do question whether buyers of high-end vehicles really nickel and dime about fuel and maintenance costs, though. Any that I've known have seemed to have been happy to be taken to the cleaners on maintenance and parts costs... because it's a BMW...

I sincerely hope you aren't street racing your Model 3. Most people like to brag about 0-60 data, but couldn't tell the difference between 3.5 seconds and 4.5 seconds. They just like the way the acceleration sits them back in their seats, but never drive their cars at 99% of their capability anyhow because they would probably soil their underwear if they did.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

... because it's a BMW....

That's the part that I will give Tesla 100% credit on from a marketing perspective.

Every other manufacturer aimed their electric cars at the mass-market crowd. The price sensitive/utility-first crowd.

Tesla aimed square at the money and badge crowd. It's absolutely genius. By making is premium and distinctive (and functionally decent), it allows the people who are swayed by badges to have a distinctive edge over their conspicuous consumption counterparts in a segment of the market that is very dependent on having a unique hook.

They can preen over their counterparts with their superiority. Even if they do have to deal with forgetting to charge it, they probably have 2 other cars to drive anyway.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

I do question whether buyers of high-end vehicles really nickel and dime about fuel and maintenance costs, though. Any that I've known have seemed to have been happy to be taken to the cleaners on maintenance and parts costs... because it's a BMW...

I sincerely hope you aren't street racing your Model 3. Most people like to brag about 0-60 data, but couldn't tell the difference between 3.5 seconds and 4.5 seconds. They just like the way the acceleration sits them back in their seats, but never drive their cars at 99% of their capability anyhow because they would probably soil their underwear if they did.

Fair point. Most BMW owners don't really care about the fuel/maintenance because like you said...they have that badge. The odd person (like me) however could easily afford a BMW but the maintenance and fuel would turn me off because long term I would stress about the ongoing cost.

The insurance on my Tesla is the exact same as my previous Honda. The quote for the BMW was 30% higher. So the cost of ownership of a BMW is quite high ($350/month in gas, $200/month in insurance + car payment + maintenance). Can become a massively expensive toy.

As for racing, I've done a few at stop lights. Always initiated by the other drivers. Im happy to engage haha. Not breaking any laws as it's just a little blast from 0 to 90KM/H or so. Within the speed limits and always when the roads are quiet. Im not flying through school zones don't worry.

[Truenorth00]

People who think this was a marketing move by Tesla don't get it. They positioned their lineup based on what the addressable market would be at a given battery price. They literally told the world their "Secret Master plan" in 2006:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-te...een-you-and-me

This is similar to how both the iPhone and Android launched in 2007. Not 2005. Not 2010. Both in 2007. In his presentations, Toby Seba explained that it was the convergence of several technology cost curves that enabled the making of smartphones for $600 in 2007, is why it happened then. Tesla basically did the same with batteries and semiconductors. You can tell when they jump the gun a bit, because of how limited the bottom tier trim is for the cheapest model at any time. And they drop that option as soon as they make a cheaper model.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

People who drive Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Lexus or whatever high end luxury cars will stay with the same company once they go full electric. Tesla will lose market shares eventually. What I want to know is, do people who drive Tesla's, will they buy another one in 5-10 years or will they switch. You don't make money with the 1st buyers but with client's fidelity. Once you lose a client you lose hundreds of thousands of dollars.

I have a 2018 Tesla 3. I have a deposit down on a CyberTruck but unsure if I will actually convert that into a sale just because it's such an unknown and I want to see it on the road. I live in a condo so I won't be popular with my neighbours if I have a giant truck. I wouldn't be the only one though.

Aside from all of that, if my car was totaled tomorrow I would buy another Tesla. Two factors for me:

1) EV. I will never go back to ICE, zero chance for multiple reasons.
2) No other company can compete on road trip charging, and in car software, for the foreseeable future.

We took a road trip in Jan 2020 to sourthern California and it was totally seamless. The charging network is constantly improving, so this type of thing will only get easier. With 3rd party charging there's extra planning and some luck involved.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I love Teslas. I'm just saying their long product cycles are concerning. Apple makes a new phone every year - they could probably get away with one every two years but the coolness factor would be tarnished. I can't wait to see the next gen Teslas. (The older I get the less patience I have lol.)

Tesla has had multiple incremental improvements throughout model years, but it's mostly on the internals and software. Heat pumps, powered trunks, battery chemistry changes, etc.

If you want to see a marketing blitz with some random new styling every 5 years, you're probably looking at the wrong car.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by thewave46

That's the part that I will give Tesla 100% credit on from a marketing perspective.

Every other manufacturer aimed their electric cars at the mass-market crowd. The price sensitive/utility-first crowd.

Tesla aimed square at the money and badge crowd. It's absolutely genius. By making is premium and distinctive (and functionally decent), it allows the people who are swayed by badges to have a distinctive edge over their conspicuous consumption counterparts in a segment of the market that is very dependent on having a unique hook.

They can preen over their counterparts with their superiority. Even if they do have to deal with forgetting to charge it, they probably have 2 other cars to drive anyway.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Fair point. Most BMW owners don't really care about the fuel/maintenance because like you said...they have that badge. The odd person (like me) however could easily afford a BMW but the maintenance and fuel would turn me off because long term I would stress about the ongoing cost.

Understood. I'm similar in mindset, which is one of the reasons why I choose to do most of my maintenance and repairs myself (plus I enjoy the process). If it's required to be done at the dealer to maintain warranty, however, I will do that.

I don't get people going on about fuel costs, though, unless they are literally driving hundreds of km per day. With the mileage that most of today's vehicles get, fuel costs don't actually add up to all that much in the grand scheme of things - mind you it would be different if you are driving a 9000 lb pickup, but most of us aren't.

Originally Posted by travis3000

The insurance on my Tesla is the exact same as my previous Honda. The quote for the BMW was 30% higher. So the cost of ownership of a BMW is quite high ($350/month in gas, $200/month in insurance + car payment + maintenance). Can become a massively expensive toy.

I think insurance costs are more about experience and driving/accident record than actual cars. For example, insurance for my older Accord, my newer TLX and my older Mustang GT are about the same, give or take a few bucks. But I have a clean driving record without any accidents, so my company recognizes that I've been giving them money for nothing for a long time, I guess...

Mind you, as much as I appreciate BMWs, I've never been drawn to them, so I don't know how their insurance costs would compare.

Originally Posted by travis3000

As for racing, I've done a few at stop lights. Always initiated by the other drivers. Im happy to engage haha. Not breaking any laws as it's just a little blast from 0 to 90KM/H or so. Within the speed limits and always when the roads are quiet. Im not flying through school zones don't worry.

I don't want to sound sanctimonious, as years ago I used to drive pretty quickly and aggressively (and did some track racing). I just know how quickly competition on the street can get out of hand and how you just can't predict what others are going to do... so I cringe now when I hear about street racing. Things can happen pretty quickly when you are on the edge. Doesn't sound like you are doing much anyhow if it's an open highway without pedestrians or side roads or parking lots exiting in your path, so I'll sound like a parent and say "be careful"...

[homebucket]

The 330i also starts at $41,450. The Model 3 RWD starts at $44,990 but isn't available until October, so if someone needs a car right away, they'd have to step up to the Model 3 LR AWD, which starts at $50,990. And even then they wouldn't get it until December at the earliest.

So if someone needs an entry level luxury car in the near future, the 330i would be the better option, and it's $9,540 cheaper. The breakeven point in terms of gas savings and maintenance would probably be met 4-6 years into ownership if you want to factor in long term costs though. Most BMW owners typically replace their cars at this point anyway. If someone plans to keep their car beyond 4-6 years, then the Model 3 LR AWD would be a better option than the 330i. BMWs, I believe, are probably going to lose more in depreciation as well.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Nobody thinks a Tesla 3 is on par with a BMW M3 performance wise, just that for the price it surprisingly does tick a lot of the boxes. And you also don't have to deal with the $350/month in premium gasoline or the synthetic oil changes/fuel flushes/engine filters/non stop brake changes. The savings are unreal and in the end you still get a super fun car to drive that will beat 99% of all cars on the road in any street race.

Yep. I think a lot of Tesla owners don't realize the limitations of the current generation of EV cars (in the future I'm sure it'll get better obviously) when they boast about performance.

I'm in a group of local track enthusiasts, and from time to time, we have Tesla owners taking their cars on track, which is great to see. We welcome all types of cars and appreciate drivers taking the time to hone their driving skills. However, one thing I see time and time again is that, while these cars are exceptionally fast, they're not able to sustain lap times because the power drops significantly over time. We're talking about 2-3 seconds per lap. So they can only do one fast hot lap, and then a few medium speed cool down laps. By then, 15-18% battery is used up, and they're only able to complete 6-8 laps total on a 2 minute track, before they need to recharge. Not only that, the brakes are usually cooked after 2 all out laps.

Of course, I'm sure this will improve over time as the technology advances. Would definitely recommend a complete brake (big brake kit, fluids, pads, ss lines) overhaul as well if you plan to do any sort of performance driving.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Tesla's are anything but ugly. The 3 is one of the nicest cars on the road if you do it up nicely. I get compliments on the daily with mine. I have it all done up with red brake callipers, custom Remetrix plate covers, blackened tires. Looks mean as hell.

Perhaps ugly is too strong a word for the Model 3 (not the Y though) but bland isn't. Especially in Vancouver where there are so many of them. probably no worse than an Audi A4 but definitely not as interesting to look at it (in or out) as a BMW 3 series or Genesis G70.

[theman23]

I’m not a fan of the model 3. It looks like an oblong bun. But in certain colours (red mainly) it looks OK. The model Y looks like the 3 in oversized sneakers. That being said, it’s not the ugliest looking electric SUV (that would probably be the BMW IX).

I really like the look of the ioniq 5. I’m not sure what it’ll look like in person, but in photos it kind of looks like a cyberpunk VW golf.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by theman23

I’m not a fan of the model 3. It looks like an oblong bun. But in certain colours (red mainly) it looks OK. The model Y looks like the 3 in oversized sneakers. That being said, it’s not the ugliest looking electric SUV (that would probably be the BMW IX).

I really like the look of the ioniq 5. I’m not sure what it’ll look like in person, but in photos it kind of looks like a cyberpunk VW golf.

The BMW bucktooth grille is a horrible look. Deal breaker for me. I would never buy a new BMW regardless of how fast or fun it is to drive as long as it looks like that.

Hyundai/Genesis is really doing a stellar job as far as the styling department, both inside and out. They've been killing it. Genesis probably has the best looking lineup from top to bottom at the moment, in the luxury car segment.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by travis3000

The model Y is the best selling EV in the US in 2021 by far, #2 is the Model 3. The rest of them are way back in the dust.

I am aware of that. How is that relevant to my observations?

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Yep. I think a lot of Tesla owners don't realize the limitations of the current generation of EV cars (in the future I'm sure it'll get better obviously) when they boast about performance.

I'm in a group of local track enthusiasts, and from time to time, we have Tesla owners taking their cars on track, which is great to see. We welcome all types of cars and appreciate drivers taking the time to hone their driving skills. However, one thing I see time and time again is that, while these cars are exceptionally fast, they're not able to sustain lap times because the power drops significantly over time. We're talking about 2-3 seconds per lap. So they can only do one fast hot lap, and then a few medium speed cool down laps. By then, 15-18% battery is used up, and they're only able to complete 6-8 laps total on a 2 minute track, before they need to recharge. Not only that, the brakes are usually cooked after 2 all out laps.

Of course, I'm sure this will improve over time as the technology advances. Would definitely recommend a complete brake (big brake kit, fluids, pads, ss lines) overhaul as well if you plan to do any sort of performance driving.

Very interesting post. Some surprising revelations, at least to me.

My thoughts/questions:
- Why are they only able to do one hot lap, as the battery doesn't deplete until 6-8 laps? My impression was that you'd be able to drive them flat out until there was no charge remaining.

- Though I realize that a road course is hard on brakes, especially when you don't have a manual transmission to help engine compression take some load off the brakes to slow the car down (in an IC car), my impression was that an EV would go into regen mode on braking thus taking some load off the brakes. Or are the brakes just not that good on them?

- How long is the track? 2.5 mi? (Sonoma?) If so, does that mean with hard use that some Teslas only get like 20 miles of range? Or maybe I'm misreading it?

It's fascinating to read some of these experiences that you normally don't hear about for one reason or another.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

this is in the concept stage

• Video Link

At a glance, it reminds me of:


Source:
https://driving.ca/lincoln/mkx/revie...-lincoln-mkx-4

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Very interesting post. Some surprising revelations, at least to me.

My thoughts/questions:
- Why are they only able to do one hot lap, as the battery doesn't deplete until 6-8 laps? My impression was that you'd be able to drive them flat out until there was no charge remaining.

- Though I realize that a road course is hard on brakes, especially when you don't have a manual transmission to help engine compression take some load off the brakes to slow the car down (in an IC car), my impression was that an EV would go into regen mode on braking thus taking some load off the brakes. Or are the brakes just not that good on them?

- How long is the track? 2.5 mi? (Sonoma?) If so, does that mean with hard use that some Teslas only get like 20 miles of range? Or maybe I'm misreading it?

It's fascinating to read some of these experiences that you normally don't hear about for one reason or another.

Some comments from the Tesla owners:

"the car pills power when the battery drops below a certain percent"

"You can run 15 minutes if you want, just head to the supercharger after the session. Problem isn’t the battery, your brakes will be done if you do that many hot laps. Obviously the faster you go, less laps you do. I burn about 10% juice per lap, I could get up 7-8 laps in theory."

"Optimum power will only last 1 lap"

"Started at full battery and ended at 60%. You'll see the battery temp display goes to red by the 5th lap."

"I only do one flying lap because as voltage drops, power does too. Trying to set the fastest time possible, so staying out for longer isn't really worthwhile for our goals. But for reference, on a slow out lap, fast flyer, and medium speed cool down lap, I use 15-18% battery. So if you're really cooking, I'd expect a flat out limit of 6 to 8 laps on a 2 minute track. Great time trial cars, but the technology and charging infrastructure is not suited for longer racing applications yet (at least when it comes at a reasonable price to the general public)"

So it seems like the battery/power gets spent if you drive all out for one lap. Soon, within a few laps, overheating batteries become an issue, in you're not limited by brake wear and overheating first. I think the OEM brakes just aren't good enough. Despite the Performance moniker, these cars aren't really suitable for true performance driving other than a limited number of acceleration runs.

Here's a lap at Sonoma, which is 2.52 miles.

• Video Link