Lamenting the decline of the car

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Vehicle makers have already thought of that:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.9new...0-911ef531e20f

I'm not clear on the concept, but maybe I didn't read that article closely enough. A 2021 Volvo XC40 is $489 a week. Do you buy a "subscription" for a year? If so, $489 x 52 weeks is, gulp, $25,428.

Am I reading that wrong?

[logan5]

Ok this a major rip off, even if gas and insurance is included. A piece of shit Kia Rio at 168$ a week? Cheaper to own

[vid]

You don't even need a down payment to get a new car most of the time, this is just yet another way corporations take advantage of the poor and financially illiterate.

[theman23]

There are a few models like that in the USA.

Care By Volvo:
https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

Porsche has Porsche drive, which is available in Canada too:
https://www.porsche.com/canada/en/ac.../subscription/

Genesis and GM also had something, but now it seems they shut them down.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by rousseau

I'm not clear on the concept, but maybe I didn't read that article closely enough. A 2021 Volvo XC40 is $489 a week. Do you buy a "subscription" for a year? If so, $489 x 52 weeks is, gulp, $25,428.

Am I reading that wrong?

Hopefully that includes insurance, unlimited gasoline, whatever the driver’s license fees are per year in your province, the costs of any speeding or parking ticket you might get, and all the groceries you’ll go get week after week with the vehicle at Volvo’s partner supermarket chain.

Then maybe it’s an okay deal.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rousseau

I'm not clear on the concept, but maybe I didn't read that article closely enough. A 2021 Volvo XC40 is $489 a week. Do you buy a "subscription" for a year? If so, $489 x 52 weeks is, gulp, $25,428.

Am I reading that wrong?

Originally Posted by logan5

Ok this a major rip off, even if gas and insurance is included. A piece of shit Kia Rio at 168$ a week? Cheaper to own

This isn't really meant to be a full time replacement for a vehicle. It's closer to something of a long term rental. Only the service means that you can travel around and get different vehicles at different times without all the hassle of doing up a new long term rental contract.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logan5

Ok this a major rip off, even if gas and insurance is included. A piece of shit Kia Rio at 168$ a week? Cheaper to own

I think you might be underappreciated the TCO of a private vehicle. Parking is a big question mark too, it ain't cheap depending where you live.

[urbandreamer]

I can get a 2022 Chevrolet Spark LS for $14300 all in - the only downside it doesn't come with A/C. None of the cars I've driven/been in have had air conditioning so is it necessary in Ontario?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

I can get a 2022 Chevrolet Spark LS for $14300 all in - the only downside it doesn't come with A/C. None of the cars I've driven/been in have had air conditioning so is it necessary in Ontario?

The famous phrase: It depends. On what one does with the car and where one lives in Ontario.

In Toronto, A/C is nicer. Hearst? It's less important.

I find I don't use the A/C much for city commuting because I don't commute very far.

However, it is nice for long-haul driving during the summer on the highway. I've had the pleasure of the 2/100 program (2 windows down at 100km/h) for non-A/C cars on the highway. It gets tiring, as you choose between wind blast or sweating.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I think you might be underappreciated the TCO of a private vehicle. Parking is a big question mark too, it ain't cheap depending where you live.

It's enlightening to actually add it up, including depreciation. Depressing, but enlightening.

It's not hard to spend $5-10k per year per vehicle when one factors in depreciation over the its lifespan.

[urbandreamer]

^True I did that this summer. I coped by having a cooler packed with ice/water and using a wet cloth over the air vents.

[JHikka]

Leaving this here as an fyi

Norway to hit 100 per cent electric vehicle sales early next year

Analysis shows the last new petrol or diesel car sold in Norway will come as early as April, 2022 – three years ahead of the government's target.

Rob Margeit 15:42, 06 October 2021

Norway is on track to bid farewell to the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered cars by April 2022, according to new analysis released by the Norwegian Automobile Federation (NAF).

According to monthly new car sales data released by Norway’s Road Traffic Information Council (OVF), the last internal combustion engine vehicle is set to leave the dealership next April, almost three years ahead of the Norwegian government’s 2025 stated target for the phasing out completely of sales of new petrol and diesel cars.

Norway’s equivalent of VFACTS tell an interesting story. In the first eight months of 2021, vehicles without any type of electrification – battery electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid, hybrid – made up less than 10 per cent of (9.66 per cent) new car sales.

Out of a total of 110,864 new car registrations, petrol cars accounted for 4.93 per cent and diesel for just 4.73 per cent.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/norway...-by-next-year/

[Truenorth00]

China just hit 19% in August. Their current target is 25% in 2025. Looks like they will be well ahead of target. Also, looks like market share really takes off once the linear part of the S-curve is hit usually around 5-10%, with the odd bump as subsidies are withdrawn.



This is why I have to wonder about companies that are planning to sell 50-60% of their production as ICEVs in 2030. Who will be buying those?

Chinese automakers are making quality EVs with 300 km of range for US$ 15 000 and they are on the verge of exporting those around the world. Watch this review of the BYD Dolphin/EA1, soon to be exported to several markets:

• Video Link


There's a reason Volkswagen execs are having crisis meetings. I suspect quite a few automakers underestimated how quickly the Chinese would develop EVs and how quickly they would move to exports. They knew they couldn't compete on internal combustion engines. So they focused on EVs. And the competition on EVs is relentless in China, with hundreds of companies, who have zero legacy investments/capital tied up in internal combustion engines. And some of them have started realizing that competition outside China is actually weaker than inside China because legacy automakers are easily 5-10 years behind. Try this on a Tesla, GM or Hyundai battery:

• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

Source: https://elements.visualcapitalist.co...attery-makers/

China is the OPEC of batteries.

[Truenorth00]

Toyota exec: Not everyone should drive a battery electric vehicle


Oct 21 (Reuters) - Many people are passionate about climate change, but not everybody should drive a battery electric vehicle as a means to combat climate change, Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) Chief Scientist Gill Pratt said on Thursday at the Reuters Events Automotive Summit.

Pratt's comments, during a discussion on electric vehicles, appeared to amplify remarks made over the past year by Toyota President Akio Toyoda.

Toyoda and other company officials have said that electric vehicles will play a greater role in reducing emissions, but other solutions should be used, Toyota's gasoline-electric hybrid models or hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles. [nL4N2MX23C]

At Thursday's conference, Pratt said Toyota believes in "diversity of drivetrains" to give customers different tools to reduce CO2.

...

Toyota has said it plans to invest $13.5 billion through 2030 on EV batteries, but so far its plans to roll out new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) seem relatively modest compared with those of U.S. automakers General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co, which are spending around $30 billion each through 2025 to electrify more of their vehicle lines.

Toyota executives continue to tout the merits of the company's hybrid vehicles, which have been on the market for more than 20 years.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...le-2021-10-21/

Somebody is starting to sound desperate.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...le-2021-10-21/

Somebody is starting to sound desperate.

No wonder. Take a look at Tesla's growth and earnings.

Tesla posts record revenue and profits in third quarter

The record results were driven by improved gross margins of 30.5% on its automotive business and 26.6% overall, both of which are records for at least the last five quarters.

The company reported $1.62 billion in (GAAP) net income for the quarter, the second time it has surpassed $1 billion. In the year-ago quarter, net income was $331 million.

Even with those issues, the company reiterated prior guidance that it expects to "achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries" over a multi-year horizon.

Tesla is now producing cars at an annualized rate of a million/year. And their two newest gigafactories haven't even opened yet. If their growth forecasts hold up, a year from now they'll be producing 1.5 million/year. The year after that, 2.25 million. 3 years from now, 3.38 million.

Meanwhile at Toyota...

https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/5/11...ine-meme-comic

[theman23]

Toyota is going to be the no.1 selling vehicle maker in the USA this year (and likely globally), topping GM with YTD sales up over 30%. They also own the PHEV/hybrid market (>60% market share), which is a larger segment of the market than BEV and growing at a faster rate. They are fine. They will get into the BEV market when its time.

[Architype]

Toyota likes to stay behind the curve with the latest technology and perhaps innovation, they let the Europeans experiment with that and work out the bugs first. They are about quality control, efficiency, and perfecting technology, and will follow when it is expedient.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Toyota is going to be the no.1 selling vehicle maker in the USA this year (and likely globally), topping GM with YTD sales up over 30%. They also own the PHEV/hybrid market (>60% market share), which is a larger segment of the market than BEV and growing at a faster rate. They are fine. They will get into the BEV market when its time.

Nokia and Blackberry claimed they were just peachy as the iPhone and Android were taking off. Where are they now? And they were substantially more dominant in the phone market than Toyota is, in the auto market.

Also, PHEVs have a limited shelf life. Think of it this way: the engine, fuel system, exhaust, etc has a cost. And that's over and above the 15 kWh of batteries and electric motor already in the car. When the cost of extra batteries to achieve a certain range is lower than the cost of the ICE powertrain in a PHEV, automakers who have the supply will ditch PHEVs. PHEVs made sense in the 2010s when batteries were expensive. They won't make much sense beyond 2025.

Originally Posted by Architype

Toyota likes to stay behind the curve with the latest technology and perhaps innovation, they let the Europeans experiment with that and work out the bugs first. They are about quality control, efficiency, and perfecting technology, and will follow when it is expedient.

As we've been saying, production capacity matters. As the article points out, GM and Ford are effectively investing 4x in electrification. Toyota could well discover they don't have the battery supply to catch up, and consumers are increasingly finding BEVs as alternatives to their offerings. This is why I keep saying the Chinese OEMs are going to eat their lunch in several markets. They've already got BEVs that are the same price as the Corolla.

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by theman23

Toyota is going to be the no.1 selling vehicle maker in the USA this year (and likely globally), topping GM with YTD sales up over 30%. They also own the PHEV/hybrid market (>60% market share), which is a larger segment of the market than BEV and growing at a faster rate. They are fine. They will get into the BEV market when its time.

In the 90s Kodak dominated the photography market and was one of the biggest companies in the world. They buried digital photography technology because it would hurt their core film business. They probably thought "we'll get into the digital market when it's time". As we know now that didn't happen and the photography market left them behind. The company has shrunk by more than 90%.

PHEVs won't last. BEVs have started their ascent to the dominant technology for cars. ICE manufacturers can't just "get into the BEV market". It's not a simple matter of switching a drivetrain, it means remaking their entire core business and corporate culture. It means becoming more Silicon Valley and less Detroit, as VW is finding out. It means developing all new platforms and completely rebuilding supply lines in the face of battery supply that's still scarce. All of this takes years. Some very big car companies are going to get caught with their pants down.