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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark
Thanks. No, I thought I was just introducing it as a topic of conversation, not a grand argument that disproves the validity of EVs as a form of convenient transportation, but it seemed to turn into much more than that. Frankly I don't have the energy to put any more into the discussion about it. So they are heavy, but more efficient and better for the environment than ICs. A win that I'm happy about.
It could be much worse, such that the climate emergency dictates that we must all give up the luxury of personal transportation that uses any amount of energy, electrical or fossil, but we're not going there yet. We are simply transforming our vehicle use to another mode, and some of us are watching in amazement at all the complexities involved in that transformation.
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See the Bill Gates interview I put up in the Economy thread. He makes the point that this transition will be unprecedented in human history (he was citing Vaclav Smil) and it has to be. Billions of lives depend on it. If the worst that comes of it is a few dollars a month more in property taxes for road maintenance, we will be stunningly lucky.
Maybe if climate change wasn't bearing down this might be more drawn out. That said, as JB Straubel (Tesla's former CTO) said, as soon as batteries hit the density where BEVs were possible, somebody was going to build them. Even if it wasn't Tesla.
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark
I personally am looking forward to watching how EVs evolve to become much better than they are as time moves on... I don't think we have yet imagined all of the possibilities, nor can any of us accurately predict where it will go. Just my two cents.
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I talk a lot about the disruption here because I am always stunned at how quickly it's moving and most people seem completely unaware to what is happening. Meanwhile companies are pouring in tens of billions in capital and we're about to hit tipping points on various technologies that will change our society and economy.
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere
I imagine once batteries become affordable enough on the mass market, which is coming soon, the next big push will be for battery density to reduce mass.
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BEVs were getting heavier because the last decade of density gains had to go towards improving range. We're only now starting to see automakers trade density for improved safety and lower cost with LFP batteries. Once we reach a nominal range that yields the real world range most buyers are comfortable with, battery gains beyond that point will be leveraged towards other goals than than higher range. I figure once nominal ranges hit 500-600 km, buyers will start feeling comfortable with battery degradation and winter range losses that they won't need more range, or will be more willing to pay for it.
If solid state pans out in the next 5 years, it's game over for ICEV. 10-15 min charge times. 800-1000 km ranges for most cars using current battery pack dimensions. And cheaper than today.
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere
The difference in electric vehicle battery technology in 2021 compared to 2011 is nothing short of astonishing. Back then GM was pushing to get a money-losing Volt on the market with a 40km range, and Tesla was only producing small electric sports sedans with a similarly small range. Imagine another decade of innovation and research into the technology and where we will be in 2031.
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People really forget what EVs were like a decade ago. Set aside the Tesla Roadster and look at what the average person might buy. The 2011 Nissan Leaf had an EPA range of 73 mi/ 117 km. The 2022 Leaf has a range of 363 km.
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Originally Posted by thewave46
Maybe if I was in a different place and set of needs I'd consider it, but there are plenty of us who aren't ready to go all-in yet.
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Nobody is asking you to go all-in yet. The government phase out target is 13 years from now. You're going to be able to drive your dino juice burner for a long time, if you so wish. Though, I'd argue that given the pace of improvements, your concerns are probably on track to get addressed over the next half decade.