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Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop
What people keep apparently forgetting is that all of these particular outmigration trends existed in the 90s as well. Have outmigration trends accelerated more than inmigration trends during this decade? I think not. Another thing people overlook are the massive amounts of residential development that have occurred this decade outside of the central area. We've had an massive acceleration this decade of residential development both within and outside of the central area. Just to name a couple outside-of-central-area neighborhoods I've recently been impressed with the amount of residential construction - McKinley Park and Bridgeport. It truly is amazing what's happening.......you guys who actually think Chicago could be losing population this decade should apply for jobs with the Census Bureau - I'm sure you'd climb up through the ranks very quickly!!
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I agree. It's certainly not only a "thin sliver by the lake" that's having new construction. Bridgeport and McKinley Park are good examples, but there's amazing amounts of construction even further south than that. Canaryville, for example, is full of (really crappy) new houses, everywhere. In Bronzeville and in Kenwood, there's the CHA redevelopments as well as many private developments. The firm I work for is involved heavily in developments both in South Shore and one further west on the border between Grand Crossing and Englewood, both market-rate. What I find interesting, though, is that, except for the CHA redevelopments, all of this is happening while by and large leaving the older housing stock intact. Most development is happening on vacant lots, as infill to areas that lost density when the city declined. Someone must be buying this stuff or it wouldn't continue being built. Apparently, for example, the Stateway Gardens redevelopment is selling pretty well (low price points help...) The city is redeveloping, throughout. Therefore, I can't see it losing population this decade. Maybe there is a black flight, but someone is taking over in their wake, apparently.
I'd estimate capacity at current zoning to be about 3.8 or 3.9 million, because the city hit 3.6+ in 1950 at less-than-current zoning, so we know it can hold at least that.