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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 5:04 AM
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Conservative and religous US urban areas, much more common than many on SSP think?

Ok, so I was on city-data forums browsing a thread about conservative areas in big US cities and someone showed a graphic of how precincts in New York City voted for President in 2008 and it absolutely shocked me!

http://www.urbanresearch.org/resourc...Obama_2008.pdf

So large swaths of southern Brooklyn and Queens actually went for John McCain and many areas not even by small margins, in some areas less than 33% voted for Obama! I knew about Staten Island and thought maybe some parts of Queens were a bit mixed but I had no idea New York City was this polarized politically neighborhood to neighborhood. The poster claimed there is a contiguous area of 2.1 million people within NYC (25% of the city's population) encompassing Staten Island, southern Brooklyn and Queens where McCain won by one vote, the largest conservative urban area in the country. I guess this also explains how people like Guiliani and Bloomberg get elected mayor, people who have some moderate to liberal views here and there but not people true progressives would call one of their own. These voters might not conservative in the sense that white people in the deep south are but apparently they many of them were conservative enough to vote for the McCain/Palin ticket. Chicago is actually much more uniformly Democratic than NYC, some of the outer areas of the city (by the Airports and Beverly) are close to a 50/50 split in voting patterns but McCain only won a few handfuls of precincts very narrowly, nothing big enough to show up on a map as bright red. I was told many of these areas either tend to be white ethnic Catholic multi-generational New Yorkers, Hasidic Jews and some immigrants from traditional cultures.

It got me thinking further, I know some many here on SSP tout US cities as liberal and secular utopias but I think there is plenty of evidence, empirical and anecdotal, that it is much more nuanced than that. I actually don't think most American cities are all that liberal or secular, on balance center-left for sure but in my view the only people who think cities are ultra liberal are either isolated ultra conservative tea party types that live in rural areas far from big cities or liberal transplants to big cities that only live in the really yuppy and hipster areas and neighborhoods with very large gay populations that don't have much exposure to the multi-generational city resident neighborhoods and ethnic enclaves with traditional cultural values.

Take my word for it, as Democratic as Chicago is lingering beneath the surface in many people in many neighborhoods are some very traditional and even conservative views. The difference between here and the deep south is that here there is a sense of tolerance with a lower class "t" in that it is a "live and let live" attitude but in the more traditional bungalow belt areas there is the unwritten rule of "don't be in my face about it, don't ask don't tell". I have been around people like this all my life, much of my neighbors and family are just like this. What I mean for instance is that I wouldn't recommend gay people holding hands in hoods like Garfield Ridge (where I live), Beverly or Hegewisch, even in Bridgeport that is still a bit of an edgy thing to do.

Why is it like this? Well a lot of it has to do with religion, Catholicism in particular but also with many black protestants as well. Sure Catholics in Chicago don't express their religion as overtly politically as people in the deep south but many have deeply held beliefs and some of them take advantage of the secret ballot and even vote based on such issues. I know Hispanic families that pray before every meal but are also Democratic political activists that have rather liberal views when it comes to immigration and worker's rights. My point is that religion and traditional values still play a big role for many in our most urban big cities and the sooner secular liberals realize this the easier it will be to truly understand the entire city and it's people, not just the small circles they live in. That is not to say you have to be religious or even like religion but just understand when you deride these values you aren't just abstractly dissing people who live in some far away podunk but also many that live a few miles away, a few blocks away and even right next door to you, so be pragmatic and not dogmatic (ironic) about how to respond to them and just hoping that someday people like them will be gone due to generational/societal changes is not good enough (#1. You don't know that for sure and #2 even if it will someday it is important to have an understanding for today not some distant hypothetical and to you utopian future). Isn't part of being a liberal in a multicultural world class city understanding the traditional (including religious) values of many diverse cultures?

In conclusion I just want to bring it back to the discussion about conservative areas in big US cities. This doesn't necessarily mean they vote Republican (although in some areas they apparently do) but also how many of our urban areas are much more nuanced than just the down the line liberal/progressive stereotypes. Given the map above you can't even blame it entirely on the more suburban parts of the city as Brooklyn is more dense than any area in the United States outside of Manhattan, so yes Virginia there are areas with 30K+ per square mile density with mass transit everywhere that voted for McCain. I don't mean to be a smart ass, just a splash of cold water for some of you, it was somewhat even for me.

Last edited by Chicago103; Mar 31, 2012 at 8:17 AM.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 5:20 AM
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I do not think there is a single precinct in Oakland or Berkeley that voted for McCain. Considering McCain didn't even get 5% of the vote in Berkeley, I do not think a precinct even voted a third for McCain in Oakland or Berkeley.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 5:27 AM
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Originally Posted by WesternGulf View Post
I do not think there is a single precinct in Oakland or Berkeley that voted for McCain. Considering McCain didn't even get 5% of the vote in Berkeley, I do not think a precinct even voted a third for McCain in Oakland or Berkeley.
Actually the core of the San Francisco bay area (SF city, Oakland, Berkley, Marin County) is really the only area in the US I would consider truly liberal in a stereotypical sense. NYC, LA and Chicago are simply too massive and diverse to have such a homogenous political ideology. Berkeley is probably the only place in the country where McCain got less than 5% of the vote that is not a predominantly African American community.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 5:58 AM
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This reminds me of those maps that showed a vast, red McCain America with only the winning blue areas in all those more compact, densely populated blue areas, accompanied by the claims that America, somehow, voted the opposite of the way America actually voted. The popular vote is what counts, not the land area held by those who vote in the minority.

New York City's popular vote by borough, 2008 presidential election:

Bronx - Obama 88%
Brooklyn - Obama 79%
Manhattan - Obama 85%
Queens: Obama 74%
Staten Island: Obama 47%

So in New York City, the only borough that did not go for Obama was Staten Island, a borough with a large land area but with only 5% of NYC's population. You claim 2.1 million New Yorkers supposedly live in McCain country--but I don't see that at all. I see fewer than 500,000 New Yorkers living in McCain country, and I don't think this establishes your desperately-desired dream that American cities share your own personal liberal-not liberal, conservative-not conservative viewpoints.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 6:03 AM
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I mean, off the top of my head I can name many predominantly conservative large metros: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Jacksonville, Orlando, Bakersfield, and the list goes on. Although, I think that Birmingham was pretty much split down the middle in the last election...

Anyways, there are urban areas that are pretty conservative. Some are very complicated. Birmingham proper is one of the ten most liberal cities in the country. Jefferson County, AL (650,000) is split down the middle, and the suburbs are pretty heavily conservative. I think that's how most decayed Southern cities are.

Look at it this way, the 1990s boomtowns were the conservative boomtowns, and the 2000s boomtowns were the liberal boomtowns. After this recession, I think it will be interesting to see how the different urban areas go in the next election.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 6:13 AM
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Originally Posted by fflint View Post
This reminds me of those maps that showed a vast, red McCain America with only the winning blue areas in all those more compact, densely populated blue areas, accompanied by the claims that America, somehow, voted the opposite of the way America actually voted. The popular vote is what counts, not the land area held by those who vote in the minority.

New York City's popular vote by borough, 2008 presidential election:

Bronx - Obama 88%
Brooklyn - Obama 79%
Manhattan - Obama 85%
Queens: Obama 74%
Staten Island: Obama 47%

So in New York City, the only borough that did not go for Obama was Staten Island, a borough with a large land area but with only 5% of NYC's population. You claim 2.1 million New Yorkers supposedly live in McCain country--but I don't see that at all. I see fewer than 500,000 New Yorkers living in McCain country, and I don't think this establishes your desperately-desired dream that American cities share your conservatism.
The 2.1 million number was from a someone on city-data forum who claims to have crunched the numbers and it included a continuous area that went for McCain by one vote, I did not crunch the numbers myself. I know full well the popular vote is what counts and have seen the % figures for the boroughs you just gave before. What shocked me is how large of an area of Brooklyn went McCain because there are no low density areas of that borough, in fact aside from Staten Island the rest of NYC is very dense, it is not like showing a map of America where so many areas are virtually uninhabited. What I expected was for Brooklyn to be much more uniform in it's voting pattern, instead there are large areas of Obama at 90%+ and also large areas that went for McCain.

Also this thread is more than about voting patterns but also the idea that many people living in cities have traditional values even if they vote Democrat. Also for the record I am not a conservative, I am a Democrat who voted for Obama and consider myself a moderate. Why label me as a conservative just because I am not a down the line progressive? Sure I admit to sharing some of the values of many old school Chicagoans, I describe myself as someone who is fairly liberal in what I will tolerate from others but in my personal life am quite traditional, even old fashioned. So this is not about some desperately desired dream that many people in big cities have traditional values not always lockstep with progressive values rather it is based on personal experience and evidence. To the contrary I think it is some progressives that desperately want to believe that cities are liberal and secular utopias and just pretend that neighborhoods like mine, churches and ethnic groups with very traditional beliefs don't exist in the city or are just ignorant of them.

Also bear in mind when I give examples like about gays being able to hold hands in certain neighborhoods that is not about my personal beliefs but rather just knowing how people think in certain areas. I am saying that is the way it is and how people think not how it should be. I should clarify because I know many people get very sensitive on here about that.

Last edited by Chicago103; Mar 31, 2012 at 6:24 AM.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 6:19 AM
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Originally Posted by tredici View Post
I mean, off the top of my head I can name many predominantly conservative large metros: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Jacksonville, Orlando, Bakersfield, and the list goes on. Although, I think that Birmingham was pretty much split down the middle in the last election...
Suburban Memphis and Nashville are mostly conservative, but the same can be said for most cities. Like Birmingham city, Memphis and Nashville proper are strongly Democratic and have been for most of the past century. The largest cities to vote McCain were Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Mesa, Virginia Beach, Tulsa, Colorado Springs, Arlington (TX), Wichita, Bakersfield, and Corpus Christi, in that order, and even there most of the margins were pretty close except for OKC and Bakersfield, where the margin was around 15%.

Quote:
Anyways, there are urban areas that are pretty conservative. Some are very complicated. Birmingham proper is one of the ten most liberal cities in the country. Jefferson County, AL (650,000) is split down the middle, and the suburbs are pretty heavily conservative. I think that's how most decayed Southern cities are.
I'm not sure your interpretation of the term 'urban area' is the same as the interpretation Chicago103 is using. I think he is referring to truly urban, high density neighborhoods, not 'urban area' in the way that the census bureau would use it.

I'd also have to disagree with you about Birmingham being one of the most liberal cities. It may be top ten in the country in percentage of voters who vote Democratic, but that doesn't necessarily mean liberal, particularly when it is the deep south we're talking about. Not trying to take anything away from B'ham. I'm just saying it's relative.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 6:29 AM
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Originally Posted by BnaBreaker View Post
I'm not sure your interpretation of the term 'urban area' is the same as the interpretation Chicago103 is using. I think he is referring to truly urban, high density neighborhoods, not 'urban area' in the way that the census bureau would use it.
Yeah, outside of Manhattan nowhere in the US is as dense as Brooklyn, to my knowledge there are no large low density (under 20K per square mile) areas in that borough. So apparently there are some very high density neighborhoods in Brooklyn where less than 33% of the population voted for Obama. I still have a hard time believing that, if anyone has any insight or contrary knowledge let me know. I think some are shooting the messenger here, I didn't post the map to brag or get off on the idea that urban areas voted for McCain, to the contrary I find it shocking and perplexing. As I said I expected Brooklyn to be a pretty uniform 60-90% by neighborhood for Obama with 79% for the whole borough, I wasn't expecting to see such political polarization. Nowhere in Chicago did Obama get only 1/3 or less of the vote.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 7:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Chicago103 View Post
Also for the record I am not a conservative, I am a Democrat who voted for Obama and consider myself a moderate. Why label me as a conservative just because I am not a down the line progressive?
Read it again, more closely. I wrote "liberal-not liberal, conservative-not conservative" just for you. Just for you, personally. Just for you because you're the one person in all the world I've ever seen claim the mantle of conservatism until you decide to switch to claiming the mantle of liberalism, then renounce both, then renounce neither, then claim both, then renounce both, then lash out at anyone who attempts to quote you claiming any of the above.

New York City isn't "conservative," but City-Data is.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 7:17 AM
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Originally Posted by fflint View Post
Read it again, more closely. I wrote "liberal-not liberal, conservative-not conservative" just for you. Just for you, personally. Just for you because you're the one person in all the world I've ever seen claim the mantle of conservatism until you decide to switch to claiming the mantle of liberalism, then renounce both, then renounce neither, then claim both, then renounce both, then lash out at anyone who attempts to quote you claiming any of the above.
No, I am not Mitt Romney

It's called being a moderate or being part of the "no-labels" movement. The thing is that I just don't like political labels but use the language of labels because it is hard to communicate your thoughts about politics without mentioning them, at least in a relative sense. You also must have edited your post to that a minute after my first response, the one I saw said I had desperate dreams to think cities are conservative.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 7:37 AM
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Much of eastern LA county and the relatively "urban" Inland Empire has tended to lean toward the right, particularly when it comes to regulations and taxes.

Hate to be stereotypical but this is especially true with white "trailer trash" that live in the area.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 7:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Chicago103 View Post
It's called being a moderate or being part of the "no-labels" movement.
You gave this thread a title, and the very first word of the title you chose uses a political label--"Conservative." Not "moderate," nor "liberal." Conservative.

But it's not really conservative, it's liberal. No, it's moderate. No, it's both conservative and liberal, and neither. And you forumers are wrong to not see it as conservative-not conservative, because it's liberal-not liberal, and it has no labels, but it has the label "moderate." Because it is, unless and until it isn't, in which case you forumers are still wrong, because you use my labels-not labels to say what I say-not say!
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 8:08 AM
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Originally Posted by fflint View Post
You gave this thread a title, and the very first word of the title you chose uses a political label. It's neither "moderate" nor "liberal." The body of your original post also engenders the idea that we forumers are somehow wrong in thinking that US cities like New York are not conservative. Stop running away from yourself.
In response to a map I saw of NYC voting patterns. I could have said "Republican" instead of "conservative" but I wanted it to be a bit broader of a discussion than just what was on the map. If I would have titled the thread "Comparative analysis of relativistic right of center political labels and voting patterns as it applies to urban environments" it would have been a bit dry don't you think? It is meant to be an objective analysis and not a value statement (i.e., "some areas vote Republican, isn't this awesome?"). Also my claim wasn't that US cities are "conservative" but rather they are less "liberal" than many think, also areas that vote less than 33% Obama are more than just moderate, many would call that downright conservative, thus the title. In reality I don't put a dissertation of thought into the implications of every word I put in a title of a thread on SSP, it's just an engine of discussion. It might be a minor grammatical mistake, a poor choice of words, but there is no ulterior motive as you seem to imply, you do this a lot, assume false conflict. I am not running away from anything, I am just shrugging my shoulders and wondering what the big deal is.

I also posed a question in the thread title, now if your answer is "no, I don't think there are more conservative areas in urban areas then we on SSP realized" as you seem to that is fine, it doesn't shatter my world view. In reality I was hoping someone had some insight as to what the demographics of these exact neighborhoods are and what demographics in cities tend to be more conservative, religious and/or Republican.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 8:13 AM
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Originally Posted by JDRCRASH View Post
Much of eastern LA county and the relatively "urban" Inland Empire has tended to lean toward the right, particularly when it comes to regulations and taxes.

Hate to be stereotypical but this is especially true with white "trailer trash" that live in the area.
What about Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley and having a Republican Mayor (Richard Riordan) in the 1990's? I am sure the occasional republican voters in the city are of a different variety than those in the Inland Empire. I would actually like to see a precinct map of LA that shows the voting patterns in the 2008 presidential race.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 8:28 AM
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I actually wonder if the guy on city-data making these claims is a bit of a weirdo. He claims in this thread that there are neighborhoods in Brooklyn that went over 90% for McCain and are more Republican than parts of rural west Texas. Here is one thread.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/city-...s-america.html

This original link he gave and I posted appears to be from a legit source though. Can anyone confirm or deny this based on what they know about New York City?
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 9:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Chicago103 View Post
What about Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley and having a Republican Mayor (Richard Riordan) in the 1990's? I am sure the occasional republican voters in the city are of a different variety than those in the Inland Empire. I would actually like to see a precinct map of LA that shows the voting patterns in the 2008 presidential race.

The Valley is probably the most conservative part of LA City, but it is getting more liberal. The vast majority of its precincts went Obama. However, on an issue like prop 8 (gay marriage ban), it seemed to vote in favor. It has a high population of Catholics, so that was expected...however LA City as a whole voted against prop 8 and was 70% for obama.
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Old Posted Mar 31, 2012, 11:34 PM
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The Hasidic and Orthodox Jewish communities are relatively conservative and are kind of a NYC anomaly, these are the deep red areas in BK (South Williamsburg, Borough Park, Midwood) Obama's and the Democratic Party's perceived hostility towards Israel played a role here. Southshore Staten Island and Breezy Point on Rockaway Peninsula are suburban in density and population, and Howard Beach, Queens isn't exactly dense too and is one of the few white, working class Archie Bunker hoods relatively intact. Most people (I hope) are aware that NY has a large Orthodox Jewish population and that there are some quasi-suburban areas in city limits.
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Old Posted Apr 1, 2012, 1:37 AM
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Suburban Memphis and Nashville are mostly conservative, but the same can be said for most cities. Like Birmingham city, Memphis and Nashville proper are strongly Democratic and have been for most of the past century. The largest cities to vote McCain were Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Mesa, Virginia Beach, Tulsa, Colorado Springs, Arlington (TX), Wichita, Bakersfield, and Corpus Christi, in that order, and even there most of the margins were pretty close except for OKC and Bakersfield, where the margin was around 15%.



I'm not sure your interpretation of the term 'urban area' is the same as the interpretation Chicago103 is using. I think he is referring to truly urban, high density neighborhoods, not 'urban area' in the way that the census bureau would use it.

I'd also have to disagree with you about Birmingham being one of the most liberal cities. It may be top ten in the country in percentage of voters who vote Democratic, but that doesn't necessarily mean liberal, particularly when it is the deep south we're talking about. Not trying to take anything away from B'ham. I'm just saying it's relative.
What are examples of where a place like Birmingham is Democratic but not liberal? I hear that a lot, but I'm not sure what issues you're speaking of.
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Old Posted Apr 1, 2012, 2:06 AM
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Originally Posted by fflint View Post
This reminds me of those maps that showed a vast, red McCain America with only the winning blue areas in all those more compact, densely populated blue areas, accompanied by the claims that America, somehow, voted the opposite of the way America actually voted. The popular vote is what counts, not the land area held by those who vote in the minority.

New York City's popular vote by borough, 2008 presidential election:

Bronx - Obama 88%
Brooklyn - Obama 79%
Manhattan - Obama 85%
Queens: Obama 74%
Staten Island: Obama 47%

So in New York City, the only borough that did not go for Obama was Staten Island, a borough with a large land area but with only 5% of NYC's population. You claim 2.1 million New Yorkers supposedly live in McCain country--but I don't see that at all. I see fewer than 500,000 New Yorkers living in McCain country, and I don't think this establishes your desperately-desired dream that American cities share your own personal liberal-not liberal, conservative-not conservative viewpoints.
If you look at this map...

http://www.urbanresearch.org/resourc...Obama_2008.pdf

...you can draw a box around Staten Island and contiguous portions of southern Brooklyn and central/southern Queens to conceivably partition an area of 2.1 million New Yorkers where McCain won by one vote. I think it's pretty interesting.
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Old Posted Apr 1, 2012, 3:50 AM
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I mean, off the top of my head I can name many predominantly conservative large metros: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Jacksonville, Orlando, Bakersfield, and the list goes on.
I wouldn't throw Memphis or Shelby County in that last. Both have been strong holds for the Democratic Party for years. Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama won both, and Obama will win both again this fall. Memphis and Shelby County have been run by Democrats for years, and probably always will be. Also, Memphis and Shelby County account for roughly 930,000 of the 1.3 million in the Memphis Metro area.
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