The NHL is coming closer to Quebec City

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper

The NHL would probably consider contraction over relocation as MLB attempted with the Montreal Expos/Minnesota Twins before the courts said no. That would probably be more beneficial for the other team valuations than relocation

The courts didn't say no to MLB contraction. The state of Minnesota sued MLB to honor the Twins lease at the Metrodome. MLB could have chosen to pay out the lease if they really wanted to get rid of the team. Also, the reverse happens when a league contracts as it does when it expands. Money flows, but in the other direction. In MLB's case, they already owned one of the teams. But they still would have had to buy the Twins to contract them. All of a sudden, these owners who just pocketed Arizona and Tampa expansion fees a few years earlier now have to fork over cash to get rid of a team?

Are you suggesting notoriously cheap NHL owners would willingly pay out $15-20 million each to get rid of the Coyotes, rather than potentially getting a similar or maybe slightly smaller amount in their pockets to let them move to Quebec City? Where they would also have a net gain on league revenue after as well?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am not too sure about that. There are probably some "for sale" or "for sale if the price is right" signs hanging on some of the NHL's clubs in the backrooms of business right now, and not many takers it seems.

Fenway Sports Group just bought the Penguins for $900M, aka the team that was relocation fodder 15 years ago. Burkle & Lemieux got the team in 1999 for $107M.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Fenway Sports Group just bought the Penguins for $900M, aka the team that was relocation fodder 15 years ago. Burkle & Lemieux got the team in 1999 for $107M.

The Penguins also have the biggest and most marketable superstar of his generation under contract until something like 2026 so I am sure that helps!

(Not every team has that.)

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Penguins also have the biggest and most marketable superstar of his generation under contract until something like 2026 so I am sure that helps!

(Not every team has that.)

It helps when a team becomes successful with consistent ownership. Team has been turned around from being relocation fodder to one of the stronger markets in the league. Shows the growth in the NHL franchise model since 2000 or so. See Florida today.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I really doubt the NHL would want to contract the number of clubs, ever. It's obsessed with having a "big league" image in the US and contracting will make it look like Arena Football or the North American Soccer League in the eyes of many.

MLB didn't and still doesn't need to be concerned about that as their spot among the top tier of US sports historically is uncontested.

No league wants to contract.

Major League Baseball is probably maxed out right now in terms of viable cities due to its cost structure. That is why they were considering contraction previously. It is why Tampa threatens to move to Montreal instead of some other US city.

The NHL still has a couple of options left, albeit not great ones. They just would like to try potential markets before using their backup option.

[ericmacm]

I did some mini-analysis to show general conditions for hosting a team in some of the cities that have been previously mentioned in this thread. All have varying degrees of roadblocks that would make obtaining a team difficult. The most clear ownership groups appear to be in Quebec City, Hamilton, Houston, Portland, Kansas City, and Cleveland. The largest issue with some markets is that there are other teams in the same state/province have previously expressed concern about other teams nearby, such as the Leafs/Sabres in the case of Hamilton, Stars in the case of Houston/Austin, Blackhawks in the case of Milwaukee, and the Blue Jackets in the case of Cleveland. Quebec City and Kansas City are not included in this, since the Canadiens or Blues currently don't object to having another team in their state/provincial markets. All US markets are significantly larger than their Canadian counterparts (no surprise there) but many still lack a clear ownership group that could take on a team.

Quebec City, QC:

Population: 832,328 (CMA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Sufficiency (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $65,333 CAD (2016)
TV/Fanbase Market: Eastern Quebec, Western Atlantic, Northern Appalachia
Potential Ownership: Quebecor Inc. ($7.048B CAD)
Current Arena: Centre Videotron, 2015 (18,259)
Arena Rapid Transit: Planned (Reseau Express Capitale)
Modern Historical Hockey: Quebec Nordiques (WHA/NHL) 1972-1995
Current Hockey: Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 1969-1985, 1997-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Francophone market, population size

Hamilton, ON:

Population: 804,691 (CMA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Not Listed (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $75,422 CAD (2016)
TV/Fanbase Market: Southwestern Ontario, Western GTA
Potential Ownership: Tim Horton's ($13.09B CAD), Jim Balsillie ($0.8B CAD) or Hamilton Sports Group
Current Arena: FirstOntario Centre, 1983 w/Planned Renovations (17,383)
Arena Rapid Transit: Planned (Hamilton LRT)
Modern Historical Hockey: Various (OHL) 1985-1988, 1989-1991, Various (AHL) 1992-1994, 1996-2015
Current Hockey: Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL) 2015-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Population size, current state of arena, proximity to Leafs and Sabres

Halifax, NS:

Population: 448,544 (CMA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Sufficiency (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $69,452 CAD (2016)
TV/Fanbase Market: Atlantic Canada, Northern Appalachia
Potential Ownership: No clear ownership group
Current Arena: Scotiabank Centre, 1978 (10,595)
Arena Rapid Transit: No
Modern Historical Hockey: Various (AHL) 1978-1993
Current Hockey: Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) 1994-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Population size, current size/state of arena, lack of clear ownership group

Saskatoon, SK:

Population: 336,614 (CMA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Sufficiency (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $83,127 CAD (2016)
TV/Fanbase Market: Saskatchewan, Montana
Potential Ownership: No clear ownership group
Current Arena: SaskTel Centre, 1986 (15,100)
Arena Rapid Transit: No
Modern Historical Hockey: Saskatoon Quakers (WCSHL/PCHL/WHL) 1947-1959
Current Hockey: Saskatoon Blades (SJHL/WHL) 1964-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Population size, current state/size of arena, lack of clear ownership group

Houston, TX:

Population: 7,122,240 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Beta+ (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $69,193 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: Texas Gulf Coast, New Orleans
Potential Ownership: Tilman Fertitta ($6.0B USD)
Current Arena: Toyota Center, 2001 (17,800)
Arena Rapid Transit: No
Modern Historical Hockey: Houston Aeros (WHA) 1975-1978, Houston Aeros (AHL) 2003-2013
Current Hockey: None
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Resistance from Stars (who want to be Texas' only team), spotty history with hockey, heavy competition in current sports market

Austin, TX:

Population: 2,283,371 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Beta- (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $80,954 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: Texas Hill Country, South Plains
Potential Ownership: No clear ownership group
Current Arena: Moody Center, Under Construction (15,000)
Arena Rapid Transit: Yes (MetroRapid BRT)
Modern Historical Hockey: None
Current Hockey: Texas Stars (AHL) 2009-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: No clear ownership group, size of arena, resistance from Stars especially since they host their AHL team

Portland, OR:

Population: 2,512,859 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Sufficiency (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $78,439 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: Oregon, Northern California
Potential Ownership: Paul G. Allen Trust/Allen family ($20.3B USD)
Current Arena: Moda Center, 1995 (18,280)
Arena Rapid Transit: Yes (MAX Light Rail)
Modern Historical Hockey: Portland Buckaroos (WHL) 1960-1975
Current Hockey: Portland Winterhawks (WHL) 1976-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: No professional hockey (excl major junior hockey), ownership group might not be interested

Kansas City, MO:

Population: 2,192,035 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Gamma- (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $70,215 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: North/Western Missouri, Kansas
Potential Ownership: Hunt family ($16.6B USD)
Current Arena: T-Mobile Center, 2005 (17,544)
Arena Rapid Transit: Yes (KC Streetcar)
Modern Historical Hockey: Kansas City Scouts (NHL) 1974-1976
Current Hockey: Kansas City Mavericks (ECHL) 2009-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Spotty history with hockey, ownership group might not be interested


Milwaukee, WI:

Population: 1,574,731 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Gamma- (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $65,845 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: Wisconsin
Potential Ownership: No clear ownership group
Current Arena: Fiserv Forum, 2018 (17,341)
Arena Rapid Transit: No
Modern Historical Hockey: Various (IHL) 1952-1954, 1959-1960
Current Hockey: Milwaukee Admirals (USHL, IHL, AHL) 1970-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Proximity to Blackhawks, conflicts on hockey occupancy with owners of Fiserv Forum, no clear ownership group


Cleveland, OH:

Population: 2,088,251 (MSA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Gamma- (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $57,228 USD (2019)
TV/Fanbase Market: North/Eastern Ohio, Northwestern Pennsylvania, Lake Erie North Shore
Potential Ownership: Dan Gilbert ($37.6B USD)
Current Arena: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, 1994 (18,926)
Arena Rapid Transit: Yes (RTA Rapid Transit)
Modern Historical Hockey: Cleveland Barons (NHL) 1976-1978, Cleveland Lumberjacks (IHL) 1992-1994, Cleveland Barons (AHL) 2001-2006
Current Hockey: Cleveland Monsters (AHL) 2007-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Resistance/conflict from Blue Jackets due to AHL team hosting, and along with Penguins regarding market share

[JHikka]

Thanks for putting the numbers together.

One number that you've left out, which likely carries more weight than CMA numbers, are Designated Market Area (DMA) numbers - IE the size of the market that is used for surveying TV, radio, and marketing effects in a given area. The caveat with DMA sizes is that they're carved up in an interesting way. Using the markets you've listed:

Market sizes, A2+ pop.

• Toronto-Hamilton 8,187M
• Houston 7,167M
• Cleveland-Akron 3,556M
• Portland 3,281M
• Kansas City 2,428M
• Milwaukee 2,218M
• Austin 2,309M
• Quebec City 1,144M
• Halifax 715K
• Saskatoon 422K

Two things to note here:

• Hamilton, along with the rest of the Horseshoe, is in the same DMA as Toronto.
• Although Cleveland has a lower population than other US candidates because it's DMA is combined with Akron it turns out much higher.

Something to also keep an eye on:

Canadian rank

• 4. Kitchener-London - 2,039M
• 5. Edmonton - 2,020M
• 6. Calgary 1,968M

Numbers all as of Sept 2021
https://thinktv.ca/wp-content/upload...ept15_2021.pdf

Don't ask me how or why KWC-London ends up in the same ballpark as Edmonton and Calgary, that seems to be just what the machine spits out for a number. Hamilton is an intriguing destination for a potential future NHL team but the further we go along the more that sports teams in general, not just in the NHL, become more of a potential in KWCG/London. Kitchener will have to replace the Auditorium eventually...

Originally Posted by ericmacm

Quebec City and Kansas City are not included in this, since the Canadiens or Blues currently don't object to having another team in their state/provincial markets.

Publicly, anyway.

[ericmacm]

Anytime, the more numbers you have available to look at, the easier you can see what is going on.

I didn't even know about DMA numbers, thank you for providing those. The fact that the Kitchener-London market is so huge initially surprising, but when you start to add the CMA numbers up, as well as some other regions nearby that don't have their own DMA designations (593,822 KWC + 551,066 London + 167,509 Guelph + 151,566 Brantford + 46,464 Woodstock + 33,868 Stratford), you get an equivalent of 1,544,295, around the same size as Edmonton and Calgary. At that point, it's pretty surprising that either Kitchener or London hasn't gotten some kind of professional team yet.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Don't ask me how or why KWC-London ends up in the same ballpark as Edmonton and Calgary, that seems to be just what the machine spits out for a number. Hamilton is an intriguing destination for a potential future NHL team but the further we go along the more that sports teams in general, not just in the NHL, become more of a potential in KWCG/London. Kitchener will have to replace the Auditorium eventually...


Publicly, anyway.

If whatever that calculator uses includes London with KW, then it also probably includes most of Hamilton and the western side of the GTA as well. The 400 is as far east of Highway 8 on the 401 as Wellington Road in London is west of it, pretty big population in that circle. Whether that's enough to market a new NHL team in an area with deep allegiances already, who knows. I think you need a larger nearby population base (one that is transit friendly) to support a team than being able to draw a large enough circle to look for a couple million people. Otherwise, screw Kitchener, put the new arena across from the Toyota plant in Woodstock, where a 30 mile circle still draws London, KW, Brantford and almost into Hamilton.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I didn't even know about DMA numbers, thank you for providing those. The fact that the Kitchener-London market is so huge initially surprising, but when you start to add the CMA numbers up, as well as some other regions nearby that don't have their own DMA designations (593,822 KWC + 551,066 London + 167,509 Guelph + 151,566 Brantford + 46,464 Woodstock + 33,868 Stratford), you get an equivalent of 1,544,295, around the same size as Edmonton and Calgary. At that point, it's pretty surprising that either Kitchener or London hasn't gotten some kind of professional team yet.

Depending on your definition, the CEBL has a team in Guelph, for what it's worth. CPL really should be looking at KWC in the near-term to capitalize on what should be a great growing market in Canadian sport.

Originally Posted by djeffrey

Otherwise, screw Kitchener, put the new arena across from the Toyota plant in Woodstock, where a 30 mile circle still draws London, KW, Brantford and almost into Hamilton.

If a suburban arena doesn't work in Ottawa then one surely won't work in Woodstock. I agree that we probably need a more cohesive KWCG with improved transit and more density in the core before really considering something more serious.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Depending on your definition, the CEBL has a team in Guelph, for what it's worth. CPL really should be looking at KWC in the near-term to capitalize on what should be a great growing market in Canadian sport.

The CEBL and CPL are currently difficult to truly define as "professional," in the same regard as the bigger leagues, since they are so new as leagues and don't produce much, if any revenue right now. I have a lot of hope for both - I'm pretty sure the CPL is going to stick around since they're really doing a great job at carving out a spot in the sports scene, but I'm still not 100% sold on the CEBL. Given how fast London and Kitchener are growing, I'm sure that they'll be joining the list of markets that will want an NHL team soon enough. Both should have CFL teams by now.

I can imagine that the CPL will be looking at London and Kitchener soon, if not already, now that Windsor is getting a team and they'll need some new Southwest Ontario rivals.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

The CEBL and CPL are currently difficult to truly define as "professional," in the same regard as the bigger leagues, since they are so new as leagues and don't produce much, if any revenue right now. I have a lot of hope for both - I'm pretty sure the CPL is going to stick around since they're really doing a great job at carving out a spot in the sports scene, but I'm still not 100% sold on the CEBL. Given how fast London and Kitchener are growing, I'm sure that they'll be joining the list of markets that will want an NHL team soon enough. Both should have CFL teams by now.

I can imagine that the CPL will be looking at London and Kitchener soon, if not already, now that Windsor is getting a team and they'll need some new Southwest Ontario rivals.

One of the main soccer people in London talked with the CPL when the league was first founded and concluded it didn't make financial sense here, with the lack of a stadium, the multi-million dollar expansion fee and the expectation of losses for several years. Of course, with a couple seasons under its belt, the league might look a little more attractive. Especially if the city looks at building a soccer stadium as it talked about a few years ago. And yes with Windsor getting involved, this might spur some competition

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Publicly, anyway.

I was just going to say that it's the worst-kept-secret in town that Geoff Molson in front of the media says he'd love to have the Nordiques back but that in NHL boardrooms he is dead-set against a return of the NHL to Quebec City.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

Quebec City, QC:

Population: 832,328 (CMA, 2020)
GaWC Ranking: Sufficiency (2020)
Median Household Income Before Taxes: $65,333 CAD (2016)
TV/Fanbase Market: Eastern Quebec, Western Atlantic, Northern Appalachia
Potential Ownership: Quebecor Inc. ($7.048B CAD)
Current Arena: Centre Videotron, 2015 (18,259)
Arena Rapid Transit: Planned (Reseau Express Capitale)
Modern Historical Hockey: Quebec Nordiques (WHA/NHL) 1972-1995
Current Hockey: Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) 1969-1985, 1997-Present
Exp/Rel Roadblocks: Francophone market, population size

I know you're not the one inventing this (as it's thrown out there all the time), but I can't help but notice it's the same thing as assessing Memphis, TN (or some other places in the US) as a potential pro sports market and referring to a large African-American population as a downside. How does that sound by 2022 standards?

[MonctonRad]

Actually, in an ersatz sense, the fact that QC is such a heavily francophone market is just as much of an upside as it is a downside. This makes the market "captive" in a sense, and would promote bonding of the community to the team based just on tribalism.

The downside of course is that some players would not want to be traded to QC because of linguistic reasons, and remoteness from the greater North American market, limiting their ability to garner additional income based on decreased advertising and promotional opportunities.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

...linguistic reasons, and remoteness from the greater North American market, limiting their ability to garner additional income based on decreased advertising and promotional opportunities.

I'd think an Anglo star player on the Nordiques (where he's the biggest athlete in the market) is more likely to get national and local advertising income than an Anglo star player on most US teams (where there are probably football, baseball, and basketball players in greater demand).

The only real linguistic concern might be schooling for players' children, and I'm sure there are English private schools in QC? In any event that's no different than the hundreds of Francophone players who've gone to American cities with no French spoken, or the Europeans coming to North America. Language surely isn't the stumbling block it's made out to be in relocation speculation.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by savevp

The only real linguistic concern might be schooling for players' children, and I'm sure there are English private schools in QC?.

There are even English-language public schools in Quebec, from K-12 and it even has an English-language CEGEP (junior and vocational college).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by savevp

In any event that's no different than the hundreds of Francophone players who've gone to American cities with no French spoken, .

Since when has anyone ever cared about that? Seriously.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Actually, in an ersatz sense, the fact that QC is such a heavily francophone market is just as much of an upside as it is a downside. This makes the market "captive" in a sense, and would promote bonding of the community to the team based just on tribalism.

The downside of course is that some players would not want to be traded to QC because of linguistic reasons, and remoteness from the greater North American market, limiting their ability to garner additional income based on decreased advertising and promotional opportunities.

I think this is the most sensible view on this. It's simply a different market, and that difference has both bad and good sides. Drawbacks but also opportunities.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Depending on your definition, the CEBL has a team in Guelph, for what it's worth. CPL really should be looking at KWC in the near-term to capitalize on what should be a great growing market in Canadian sport.


If a suburban arena doesn't work in Ottawa then one surely won't work in Woodstock. I agree that we probably need a more cohesive KWCG with improved transit and more density in the core before really considering something more serious.

Obviously, I'm not advocating that Woodstock be the home location for an NHL team. I'm saying that you need a large enough "local" market to support the team. That if London or Kitchener needs the support of the other city to justify being home to a team, then it doesn't make sense for either to have a team. It's like saying Brantford can support a team because the Hamilton market is less than half an hour away. Which at least put them outside of the territorial rights of the Leafs and Sabers lol.