Atlanta 2020 Census

[smArTaLlone]

https://www.ajc.com/news/metro-atlan...EK4LRYNVJ2YG4/

Metro Atlanta added 66,730 residents between April 2022 and April 2023, boosting the region’s population to a record 5.16 million, according to estimates released Wednesday.

The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) said the fastest growth rates occurred in the city of Atlanta (2.8%), Cherokee County (2.5%) along with Forsyth and Henry counties (2.1%). ARC officials said the population increase in the 11-county region is fueled by ongoing strong employment growth.

The city of Atlanta added 14,300 residents in the past year, nearly three times the previous 12-month period. The city’s previous record increase occurred in 2018-19, with 10,900 new residents.

Carnathan credits Atlanta’s population growth to an explosion in building permits, which roughly tripled during 2022-23. He said both multifamily and single-family permits increased — nearly 12,000 permits were issued in the last year. Gwinnett County had the second-largest number of building permits, with 5,400.

[Julien]

Does the ARC get its information from the Census Bureau? The Census Bureau uses a standard called the MSA which is a little different and a larger area of 28 counties. In this we are at a 2022 estimate of 6,222,206 and 8th behind Philly at 6,241,164, after passing Miami last year. So if this is a Census Bureau statistic does this mean the 2023 estimate is officially out? If so we should now be the 7th largest MSA and maybe even moving close in on DC that is 6th at 6,373,656. Both Philly and DC had negative growth from 20-22.

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by Julien

Does the ARC get its information from the Census Bureau? The Census Bureau uses a standard called the MSA which is a little different and a larger area of 28 counties. In this we are at a 2022 estimate of 6,222,206 and 8th behind Philly at 6,241,164, after passing Miami last year. So if this is a Census Bureau statistic does this mean the 2023 estimate is officially out? If so we should now be the 7th largest MSA and maybe even moving close in on DC that is 6th at 6,373,656. Both Philly and DC had negative growth from 20-22.

ARC doesn’t use the census MSA definition, but instead (I think) a pre-determined 11-county area it considers “Metro Atlanta.” I believe ARC is an inter-governmental coordination group that covers the actual areas it represents, so it can’t just add a random suburban county that has been consumed by Atlanta.

I believe there are other regional commissions in Georgia that cover the other counties.

[newuserbuckhead]

For COA population increases from 2010, how much of that has been annexation. It looks like there were zero from 1979-2003.

[Tuckerman]

I believe the next Census MSA estimate is due to be released in March 2024. Based on recent projections I expect we will surpass the Philly MSA and maybe DC.
All I really know is that when I drive on the roads I drove on in 1992 when we moved here there is a lot more congestion!!

[Olorin]

Crazy to see Henry County's growth, I was born there and to think there's nearly 300K people living there now is insane. My parents still live in a rural area but wow

[smArTaLlone]

The state of Georgia is divided into 12 economic development regions and the ARC is the one for 11 counties around Atlanta. Also the ARC estimates tend to be more conservative than the census projections.

[atlwarrior]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

I believe the next Census MSA estimate is due to be released in March 2024. Based on recent projections I expect we will surpass the Philly MSA and maybe DC.
All I really know is that when I drive on the roads I drove on in 1992 when we moved here there is a lot more congestion!!

I doubt passing DC yet, but definitely Phila.

[jayden]

Still weird how Hall isn't included

[Julien]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

I believe the next Census MSA estimate is due to be released in March 2024.....

So the Census estimates are only done biennially?

[Libertarian]

Removed

[Libertarian]

Removed

[Martinman]

That housing permit graph is crazy. Its a remarkable statistic that the city of Atlanta, at least for one year is growing faster than any county in the metro. That's hasn't happened in a long long time.

[Labtec]

The City of Atlanta is growing at the fastest rate, which is good news.

[ATLMidcity]

Gwinnett County had the second-largest number of building permits, with 5,400.
1,704 (multi) + 1655 (SFH) = 3,358 according to my calculation. AM I WRONG?

If you look closely at the graph, that 1,704 should be inside the "green" 1,655 BAR, which would put the total number inline with the 3,500 on the left side.

[ATL Champion]

Originally Posted by Julien

Does the ARC get its information from the Census Bureau? The Census Bureau uses a standard called the MSA which is a little different and a larger area of 28 counties. In this we are at a 2022 estimate of 6,222,206 and 8th behind Philly at 6,241,164, after passing Miami last year. So if this is a Census Bureau statistic does this mean the 2023 estimate is officially out? If so we should now be the 7th largest MSA and maybe even moving close in on DC that is 6th at 6,373,656. Both Philly and DC had negative growth from 20-22.

Technically, with the new delineation release for metro areas from the Office of Management and Budget, Atlanta effectively becomes the 6th largest metro area,( passing DC metro also) That release added Lumpkin County (34,796 residents) and removed Lamar County (19,467 residents) from ATL's MSA pushing the 2022 population estimate for ATL MSA to 6,237,435.
Washington DC MSA loses two counties. #1.Calvert County, Maryland (MD)(94,573 residents) to a newly designated MSA--> Lexington Park,MD (Calvert Co plus St Mary's Co Maryland). The Lexington Park MSA is included in the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington CSA (St Mary Co was not in the prior MSA for Washington). AND #2. Madison County, VA (14,000 residents) In the new delineation this county is not included in any other CSA, MSA or MicroSA. It was significantly closer to Harrisonburg,Va MSA and Richmond,VA MSA than DC MSA .

With the changes mentioned , the July 1, 2022 census will be
Washington MSA: 6,265,183
Philadelphia MSA: 6,241,163
Atlanta MSA: 6,237,535

If the growth rates held steady, Atlanta MSA passed Philadelphia MSA in late July 2022 and also passed DC MSA in December 2022.

The new change will be reflected in the July 1, 2024 census estimates (due out in May 2025)

[Julien]

Originally Posted by ATL Champion

Technically, with the new delineation release for metro areas from the Office of Management and Budget, Atlanta effectively becomes the 6th largest metro area,( passing DC metro also) That release added Lumpkin County (34,800 residents) and removed Lamar County (19,000 residents) from ATL's MSA pushing the 2022 population estimate for ATL MSA to 6,237,435.
Washington DC MSA loses two counties. #1.Calvert County, Maryland (MD)(94,573 residents) to a newly designated MSA--> Lexington Park,MD (Calvert Co plus St Mary's Co Maryland). The Lexington Park MSA is included in the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington CSA (St Mary Co was not in the prior MSA for Washington). AND #2. Madison County, VA (14,000 residents) In the new delineation this county is not included in any other CSA, MSA or MicroSA. It was significantly closer to Harrisonburg,Va MSA and Richmond,VA MSA than DC MSA .

With the changes mentioned , the July 1, 2022 census will be
Washington MSA: 6,265,183
Philadelphia MSA: 6,241,163
Atlanta MSA: 6,237,435

If the growth rates held steady, Atlanta MSA passed Philadelphia MSA in late July 2022 and also passed DC MSA in December 2022.

The new change will be reflected in the July 1, 2024 census estimates (due out in May 2025)

Good and interesting info. So are the Census (MSA) estimates yearly or biennial on even years? Since you say "due out in May 2025" that indicates yearly? If yearly in May then when are the 23 estimates released?

[optimistic]Also with the growth in some of the CSA areas we may even pass Philly to be #9 CSA too.

[ATL Champion]

US Census Bureau provides a Yearly estimate..for July 1st of each year , however the data for MSA population portion of the estimate is usually reported in May of the following year. So the data for July 1, 2023 is not reported til May of 2024.. and so on

The new delineation from the Office of Management and Budget (the agency that determines CSA, MSA and MicroSA parameters) was released July 2023

[Ant131531]

14000+ net gain of residents has to be the highest annual population growth for the city of Atlanta since the annexation of Buckhead, meanwhile the census bureau believes Atlanta only grew by 400 since 2020 despite tons of apartments and other housing units under construction and completed which are filling up. I believe the Atlanta regional commission's numbers much more. I wonder if that number will grow higher for 2022-2023...possibly 16k+? Imagine Atlanta growing by 30k people in just two years.

[Street Advocate]

At this rate, all depends on how many permits we allow and how many housing units delivered. People move in at haste.