PHILADELPHIA | 1300 Fairmount | 185 FT | 14 FLOORS

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Back on topic, I find it very interesting that this building is about 2/3 of the way done, and we still don't quite know what it'll look like.

If the bottom is any indication this rendering from a few months ago is it:



^ though that is a pretty shitty rendering that cuts off the actually shape of the tower.

This might be closer to reality:

[arkitect13]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

To be fair, the census estimates often lowball cities like Philly and Chicago. We always see a huge jump in population every 10 years when the actual census is taken. Be that as it may, I agree that arkitect seems to be pulling numbers out of his ass.

Ya i could be but i do remember seeing it on an inquirer article a month or so back, as well as on WHYY, and one other i dont remember as of now. But I have seen it in multiple places, but i am most likely wrong and so are they

[Noam215]

Originally Posted by arkitect13

Ya i could be but i do remember seeing it on an inquirer article a month or so back, as well as on WHYY, and one other i dont remember as of now. But I have seen it in multiple places, but i am most likely wrong and so are they

Passed by yesterday and the cladding on the tower portion seems to be some sort of cast stone/masonry

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by Noam215

Passed by yesterday and the cladding on the tower portion seems to be some sort of cast stone/masonry

Really? If so, this could turn out really tastefully, like the Drexel LeBow College of Business.

[GtownFriend]

Originally Posted by Noam215

Passed by yesterday and the cladding on the tower portion seems to be some sort of cast stone/masonry

That would be great news!

[Thoroughbred]

Originally Posted by Noam215

Passed by yesterday and the cladding on the tower portion seems to be some sort of cast stone/masonry

It's EIFS...

[Urbanthusiat]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Really? If so, this could turn out really tastefully, like the Drexel LeBow College of Business.

Absolutely nothing about this development has at any point encouraged me that this will be "tasteful" architecturally. Now I like it from a functional, urbanist perspective, but I don't have confidence on the quality of materials.

[SEFTA]

I never cared for this project but the scale for this area is really impressive.

[Redddog]

Originally Posted by Urbanthusiat

Absolutely nothing about this development has at any point encouraged me that this will be "tasteful" architecturally. Now I like it from a functional, urbanist perspective, but I don't have confidence on the quality of materials.

Don't let great get in the way of good. This is such an absolutely immense upgrade for this area in an area that is desperately in need of this. Is it the Louvre? No. Transformative in an area of critical importance to North Philly? 100%.

[iamrobk]

Originally Posted by Redddog

Don't let great get in the way of good. This is such an absolutely immense upgrade for this area in an area that is desperately in need of this. Is it the Louvre? No. Transformative in an area of critical importance to North Philly? 100%.

Yep, this. As someone who lives a ~10 minute walk away, I have been super, super excited for this, and it's such a huge project for the area that I think it will undoubtedly encourage more development in the immediate area.

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by iamrobk

Yep, this. As someone who lives a ~10 minute walk away, I have been super, super excited for this, and it's such a huge project for the area that I think it will undoubtedly encourage more development in the immediate area.

Add that to all of the projects proposed around Broad and Spring Garden, and you have yourself a perfect storm for momentum running up Broad to Girard.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Urbanthusiat

Certainly none of the projections I've seen...

In fact the official numbers show that city population growth has slowed as this cycle has worn on. I do feel good about Philly's growth prospects going forward, but the city is most definitely not getting back to 2m in the next 20 - probably even 30 - years. I would love to be wrong but... I don't think I will be.

YoY population growth since 2010

2011: 12,029
2012: 11,475
2013: 6,574
2014: 7,233
2015: 5,654
2016: 5,132
2017: 3,831
2018: 3,917

I think these numbers are artificially low. Other census numbers on the # of people in the workforce in Pennsylvania just compared to one year ago show a net positive of 100K people. From what I've seen SE PA accounts for 70+% of that and I'd venture a guess and say that Philadelphia proper accounts for 50% of that, if not more. That's 35K new people in the workforce alone.

This is one of the reasons the unemployment rate in PA has been going up...not because we're losing jobs, but because we're adding an abnormal number of people compared to recent historic trend and job growth is trailing, slightly.

I wouldn't be surprised if the census showed us at 1.625 million people (or more).

It's hard to drive around Northern Liberties, South Kensington, East Kensington, Brewerytown, Point Breeze, North Philly, etc and not think we're adding many more people than the government says. There's construction everywhere. And many large sizeable buildings (which are renting quickly) with very few exceptions.

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I think these numbers are artificially low. Other census numbers on the # of people in the workforce in Pennsylvania just compared to one year ago show a net positive of 100K people. From what I've seen SE PA accounts for 70+% of that and I'd venture a guess and say that Philadelphia proper accounts for 50% of that, if not more. That's 35K new people in the workforce alone.

This is one of the reasons the unemployment rate in PA has been going up...not because we're losing jobs, but because we're adding an abnormal number of people compared to recent historic trend and job growth is trailing, slightly.

I wouldn't be surprised if the census showed us at 1.625 million people (or more).

It's hard to drive around Northern Liberties, South Kensington, East Kensington, Brewerytown, Point Breeze, North Philly, etc and not think we're adding many more people than the government says. There's construction everywhere. And many large sizeable buildings (which are renting quickly) with very few exceptions.

The census for population is based on the number of people living at the home address in the State and city. So, what is the methodology for how census is taken for the workforce in PA, and Philly in particular. Does it include people commuting from the suburbs, NJ, NY, or DE? I could see the latter inflating the numbers and being inconsistent with the population census based on a Philly address and zipcode.

[justremember]

Non-white and poor people tend to be under-counted, and Philadelphia's population is majority-minority and the poorest of any big city in the nation, so we can probably be confident that the estimates and actual census both under-count us relative to other top 10 cities (I'm looking at you, Phoenix ).

Furthermore, there's political incentive within the current iteration of the federal government to make the city proper and inner-ring suburbs seem less populated.

[JohnIII]

Originally Posted by justremember

Non-white and poor people tend to be under-counted, and Philadelphia's population is majority-minority and the poorest of any big city in the nation, so we can probably be confident that the estimates and actual census both under-count us relative to other top 10 cities (I'm looking at you, Phoenix ).

Furthermore, there's political incentive within the current iteration of the federal government to make the city proper and inner-ring suburbs seem less populated.

You are absolutely correct; absolutely.

This is actually one of the best statements I've heard on this forum because its true. I've been in Philadelphia since the 1970 Census and I've one seen 1 Census form. I remember being told when I was a teenager when I saw that Census form all those years ago; all the adults who were minorities said, "Don't fill it out; the moment you do everyone's taxes will go up." The general belief at the time was that when the population of Philadelphia was over 2 million the leaders of that time added a "Temporary Tax" called the City Wage Tax; it was only suppose to be on for 2 years but as you can see there are no "Temporary Taxes."

I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia has over 2 million right now; almost no minorities I know ever fills out the Census and I'm multiracial so think about all the African Americans; Asians, Hispanics who live in Philadelphia that the government never counts! Its alot!!!

[bigfish]

And don't forget those who are undocumented who are scared to fill out the census. I know the citizenship question is not in the census but people are worried nonetheless.

[Jawnadelphia]

[mcgrath618]

I'll be a census taker this year. I have a feeling that we're gonna come back as above 1.7.

[iamrobk]

Extremely off topic but re: the census, all good points made above about why we're under-counted. Also our high number of college students. Temple has a total enrollment approaching 40k, Penn and Drexel each about 25k, plus St. Joes, USciences, UArts, etc. How many of those students respond to the census stating that they live in Philly, as opposed to their hometown? 10%? Maybe 20%? I was a college student in 2010 and don't recall anyone I know completing the census themselves or stating that they lived at their college address, it was always their parents filling it out stating that they lived at home (full disclosure: I'm not sure what college students are supposed to do about the census; maybe you're supposed to list your parents address, I honestly don't know). And a lot of these younger people, even if they stay in Philly after graduation, continue to use their parents address for anything 'official' (taxes, voting, drivers license, etc.), particularly if they're from PA originally. A good friend of mine (who is now 30+ and lives in Philly) continues to 'live' at his parents address in the Philly suburbs as far as any level of government is concerned, and it took 5+ years for most of my other friends to use their non-parents addresses.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

The census for population is based on the number of people living at the home address in the State and city. So, what is the methodology for how census is taken for the workforce in PA, and Philly in particular. Does it include people commuting from the suburbs, NJ, NY, or DE? I could see the latter inflating the numbers and being inconsistent with the population census based on a Philly address and zipcode.

That is absolutely not how the yearly numbers are determined.

It is only how the once decade numbers are determined.

My understanding is the yearly numbers are based on extrapolated data based on W2 information.

So for example, it wouldn't include:
People without jobs who live in the city (ex: students who don't work)
People who live in the city but for some reason don't have a city address on their W2
People who work under the table
Etc.

There are lots of sub-categories of people who are basically invisible to this IRS data. Or who look one way in the data, but act another way.