Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitites
I foresee lots of ICE vehicle manufacturer bankruptcy within the next 5 years. Ford may be the first, Daimler Chrysler, Subaru then GM. Toyota, Honda and VW stand a chance to survive if they get their tucus in gear.
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I think it's going to take a fair bit longer than 5 years for EVs to achieve even a substantial share of the vehicle market, let alone enough to put all those automakers out of business. And by the time EVs dominate, most of those brands will have their own on the market. There's absolutely no way that market-aware tech-savvy companies like Toyota or Honda will go down with the ICE ship as it sinks; they'll switch to the new technology and carry on.
But gas prices will rise gradually and people still value the practicality of fast fill-ups and long range without extended charging stops, especially here in North America where driving very long distances is commonplace.
When you will see a precipitous decline in ICE, and EVs coming into their own, is when a battery technology arrives that is extremely energy-dense and can fill up in minutes, giving similar practicality as a gasoline-powered car. I have every expectation that such a disruptive battery will come, and when it does, that will be the time to declare the ICE obsolete. But not before then.