The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[swish]

Well here is a first one for you. My wife and i would love to live in Saint John someday for sure we love the city!

[KnoxfordGuy]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You should be over 100,000 by the next census in 2016, but you will have to wait until after the subsequent census in 2021 before Fredericton can petition Statistics Canada for elevation to CMA status. You will then be listed as a CMA in the 2026 census.

I believe Moncton was eligible in 2001, but had to wait until 2006 IIRC.

It's an agonizing wait, but it's worth it. Suddenly a whole lot more statistics regarding your city are compiled and this is a goldmine for corporations interested in investing in your community. It was a huge deal for Moncton when we finally became a CMA.

Suuuuuuuch a long wait! Guh.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Demographic Factors Affecting Population Change in (Atlantic) Canadian CMA's 2012-2013

CMA_____Population (2013)__Natural Increase__International Migration__Interprovincial Migration__Intraprovincial Migration__Total Net Migration__Total Growth

Halifax      408,702            1,248               1,272                    -2,104                    1,383                  551              1,799

St. John's   208,372              487                 749                      -314                    1,560                1,995              2,481

Moncton      144,941              421                 725                      -163                    1,161                1,723              2,144

Saint John   127,883              182                 408                    -1,215                      -20                 -827               -645

Interesting:

Both Moncton and St. John's have had higher relative growth rates than Halifax for at least most of the last decade, but this year we also had a higher absolute growth rate as well.

The main contributor to Halifax's difficulties was a loss of 2,104 people to interprovincial migration. I find this surprising. We have known for some time that Nova Scotia was hemorrhaging population to Alberta and Ontario, but the assumption was that this was from the rural areas of the province. There also appears to be significant population transferral from the HRM as well.

This makes no sense whatsoever, not sure what stats Canada is drinking.

Halifax's estimate was over 413,000 in 2012, and should be around 418,000 in 2013.

The population growth in Halifax is extremely visible with new high rise apartments being constructed and filled everywhere including areas of Larry Uteck Blvd, Mount Royale and others.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by q12

This makes no sense whatsoever, not sure what stats Canada is drinking.

The numbers are estimates calculated from samples (e.g. mobility surveys). They can be revised up and down and there is error which can be quite large, particularly for shorter-term statistics and smaller cities which have smaller samples. The sample size for something like interprovincial migration for one year for Moncton is probably pretty small.

All that being said, I'm not really surprised by the numbers. 2012-2013 was a sort of "annus horribilis" scenario for NS (little offshore activity, shipbuilding delayed, RIM closure, and on and on) that is unlikely to be repeated year after year. Similarly the projections that take 1-5 years of data like this and extend it out over 10, 20, or 50 years are extremely unlikely to be correct (to see this, just look at past decades, project forward, and see what you get -- most projections will be way off).

One of the big biases on SSP is that people talk about data they like and ignore data they don't. They also look at a brief period of time, so the long-term trends tend to be obscured. Economic activity for example tends to oscillate back and forth, but we tend to hear about only the "peaks" from certain places and often they're compared to the "valleys" of others. The best relative economic performance of the past few years was 2008-2009 in NS for example. Nobody likes to post numbers from that year on SSP because most provinces experienced significant economic contraction at that time. The population growth numbers for most places were much lower back then too. That was one extreme end of the spectrum and now we're seeing another.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You should be over 100,000 by the next census in 2016, but you will have to wait until after the subsequent census in 2021 before Fredericton can petition Statistics Canada for elevation to CMA status. You will then be listed as a CMA in the 2026 census.

I believe Moncton was eligible in 2001, but had to wait until 2006 IIRC.

It's an agonizing wait, but it's worth it. Suddenly a whole lot more statistics regarding your city are compiled and this is a goldmine for corporations interested in investing in your community. It was a huge deal for Moncton when we finally became a CMA.

Gettign Freddy as a CMA is going to be huge, not just for Freddy, but for the Maritimes. That gives NB 3 CMA's in close proximity which will be appealing, and 4 for the maritimes. Most provinces only have one or two at most. (Hell Alberta only has 2 but will probably have 4 by the time Freddy clicks over).

Now if only Charlottetown and Sydney could tip over into CMA territory, that would be fabulous for our region. But not likely to happen any time soon without a boom of some sort.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

One of the big biases on SSP is that people talk about data they like and ignore data they don't. They also look at a brief period of time, so the long-term trends tend to be obscured. Economic activity for example tends to oscillate back and forth, but we tend to hear about only the "peaks" from certain places and often they're compared to the "valleys" of others. The best relative economic performance of the past few years was 2008-2009 in NS for example. Nobody likes to post numbers from that year on SSP because most provinces experienced significant economic contraction at that time. The population growth numbers for most places were much lower back then too. That was one extreme end of the spectrum and now we're seeing another.

If you would like a longer time frame someone, try this on for size. This is a comparison of CMA sizes from 2006 and 2013 (a span of seven years) for the Atlantic Canadian CMA's.

CMA________________2006 pop___________2013 pop____________Growth____________Percent Change

Halifax             384,585              408,702             24,117                6.27%

St. John's          183,777              208,372             24,595               13.38%

Moncton             129,707              144,941             15,234               11.74%

Saint John          124,951              127,883              2,932                2.34%

I could make a comparison back to 1991 too if you want, but Moncton wasn't considered a CMA back then.

The population of Halifax in 1991 was 320,501 (current 408,702 change 88,201 percent change 27.52%)
The population of St. John's in 1991 was 171,848 (current 208,372 change 36,524 percent change 21.25%)
The population of Saint John in 1991 was 125,838 (current 127,883 change 2,045 percent change 1.62%)

I wonder if there wasn't some change in the CMA boundaries between 1991 and 2006? Halifax seemed to experience significant population growth during that time (64,000 people), but only 24,000 people in the seven years since 2006.

In any event, since 2006, St.John's has outpaced Halifax in both relative and absolute population growth, and therefore appears to be the current east coast growth champion. How much longer this goes on for is a matter of conjecture, but it is a very interesting observation……….

[someone123]

Moncton was 107,436 in 1991 according to Wikipedia. So it has grown by about 37,000 people since then, compared to an 88,000 change in Halifax.

We can give St. John's an imaginary gold star as 2006-2013 Growth Champion of Atlantic Canada I guess, and post some dancing bananas once Moncton hits its 15th Wal-Mart or whatever.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

Moncton was 107,436 in 1991 according to Wikipedia. So it has grown by about 37,000 people since then, compared to an 88,000 change in Halifax.

I will accept your estimate for the metro population of Moncton in 1991 being 107,436; despite the dodgy provenance of this being a Wikipedia stat, and also despite the fact that Moncton officially wasn't a CMA until 2006.

I wiil therefore compose the following table:

CMA           1991 pop    2013 pop    Growth    Growth      Percent
                                                per year    change

Halifax       320,501      408,702    88,201     4,009      27.52%     
St. John's    171,848      208,372    36,524     1,660      21.25%
Moncton       107,436      144,941    37,505     1,704      34.91%
Saint John    125,838      127,883     2,045        93       1.63%

This allows Halifax to reclaim the title of growth champion of Atlantic Canada, but doesn't change the fact that St. John's has had an impressively accelerating growth rate since 2006, and has in fact outperformed Halifax since that time. On the other hand, by going back 22 years, this allows Moncton to show superior growth compared to St. John's in both relative and absolute terms over the course of nearly the last quarter century. Out of respect, I will refrain from making any comments regarding Saint John……...

Originally Posted by someone123

We can give St. John's an imaginary gold star as 2006-2013 Growth Champion of Atlantic Canada I guess, and post some dancing bananas once Moncton hits its 15th Wal-Mart or whatever.

No thanks, two Walmarts are more than enough…….

[PoscStudent]

It's pretty sad that population growth is such a sensitive topic.

[jeddy1989]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

It's pretty sad that population growth is such a sensitive topic.

hahaha I know, right?

anywho

This was posted in the Canada Section, I want to bring your attention to the two Atlantic Canadian cities that made the cut good job

Originally Posted by WIGS

guys can we stop the pissing contest, please.

I live in Calgary, but like many things about Edmonton and it's a great weekend getaway as it offers a different experience than Calgary.

back to the topic at hand, both cities (Metros) should be celebrated for population growth. For 2012-2013 both Calgary and Edmonton CMAs grew quicker than Montreal and Vancouver CMAs!!



from 2009-2013 Calgary had 11.9% and Edmonton 11% growth!



What cities are people from across Canada moving to?

*ding ding ding* Calgary AND Edmonton!



The international immigration to both Calgary and Edmonton is incredible. For 2012-2013, Calgary achieved 41.8% of total growth from international immigration. Edmonton achieved 39% of total growth from international immigration.

These numbers for both of Alberta's powerhouses speak for themselves. They are impressive to say the least Go Alberta!

[SignalHillHiker]

That second bar graph takes my breath away. Most people here could never have imagined that could ever be us. Thank God for the few who could and made it happen.

And more exciting news: our most recent unemployment rate was just 5.6%, which is one of the lowest percentages recorded anywhere in Atlantic Canada in recent history.

I really hope that all of this enables any Newfoundlands who want to stay or wish to come back to do so. That's all I really want. I don't care all that much where we rank in comparison to mainland cities - most of those things measure things that aren't really all that important to me anyway. But I want us to be able to provide a good living for anyone who wants to live here. As long as we can do that, we'll be golden.

[swish]

I think that is great news for St. Johns and NFLD in general! I love to hear good news about Atlantic Canada. I simply want our region to be prosperous again and not just 2 cities all of them!

[Marty_Mcfly]

Moncton, you are a noble city to be sharing the wild wide of growth with

[SignalHillHiker]

It is cool that it's Moncton. It's the two most opposite cities in Atlantic Canada.

I think of Saint John and St. John's being relateable, and Halifax and Charlottetown being relateable... but none really being the same as Moncton.

It's so cool.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

It is cool that it's Moncton. It's the two most opposite cities in Atlantic Canada.

I think of Saint John and St. John's being relateable, and Halifax and Charlottetown being relateable... but none really being the same as Moncton.

It's so cool.

Every city in Atlantic Canada has it's own character, which helps to make our region unique.

Personally, I think of Halifax and Saint John as being relatable (old port cities), and Charlottetown and Fredericton being kindred spirits (capitals with universities).

Sydney, St John's and Moncton are more unique. Sydney is an old industrial city like you might find in the rust belt of the Ohio River Valley. St. John's is a city like no other, and somewhat northern European in character.

Moncton really doesn't even feel like a Maritime city (which may be why some people in other cities in the region like to cast aspersions at us). Moncton is on a river and doesn't have a waterfront. Moncton is flat and featureless. Moncton is a railroad city and developed where it did solely because of it's convenient location with relation to the regional transportation grid. For these reasons, Moncton to me feels more like a city on the prairies than a Maritime city; but that's OK - Shediac is just down the road and PEI is only an hour away. If I want my Maritime fix, it's nearby…….

[Marty_Mcfly]

I've never been to Fredericton so I can't really comment on how it feels other than from what I've seen in pictures. But from that I'd say it feels very New England-y, and that probably has something to do with the universities and government being there.

[OliverD]

I don't really feel that Fredericton has a New England character, personally. To me, the architecture doesn't really line up.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by OliverD

I don't really feel that Fredericton has a New England character, personally. To me, the architecture doesn't really line up.

I agree. If you want New England character, look to Rothesay or areas in the northern Annapolis Valley (like Wolfville).

Fredericton however is also not traditionally Maritime in character, with nary a fishing boat in sight (although there is a fake lighthouse on the riverfront). Like I said before, Fredericton is similar to Charlottetown in character. The architecture of the downtown is Georgian and Victorian, not Federal (like in New England), and the economy is based on governmental institutions and the universities (and in Fredericton's case, also the military). The kinship between Freddy and Charlottetown is indisputable......

[KnoxfordGuy]

New Brunswick unemployment rate edged down from 9.9 to 9.8%. About 1500 jobs were added. At least it tick up.

[mylesmalley]

A move in the right direction is a move in the right direction.