Chicago has the fastest growing downtown in the country--again

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i was curious to see how chicago's greater downtown core is doing since its nadir in the 1990 census. that census year, the near north, near west, and near south sides all reached their all-time bottoms, after the previous 4 decades of urban flight had knee-capped them well and good. the loop wasn't at an all time bottom in 1990, but it wasn't an area of terribly significant residential population at any point in the 20th century, so.....


Community Area: 1990 - 2020 - change

the loop: 11,954 - 42,298 - +30,344 (+253.8%)

near north: 62,842 - 105,481 - +42,639 (+67.9%)

near west: 46,197 - 67,881 - +21,684 (+46.9%)

near south: 6,828 - 28,795 - +15,139 (+221.7%)
_______________________________________________

total: 127,821 - 244,445 - +116,624 (+91.2%)


so, a damn near doubling over the past 3 decades, not too shabby at all.


for historical reference, those 4 communtiy areas had a combined population high of 267,893 back in 1950 (with over half of that in the near west side alone).

if current trends continue this decade, we'll blow past that mark by 2030 to set a new all time population high for greater downtown chicago!

Awesome analysis. I see no reason why greater downtown won't exceed that goal in the next ten years. I'm pretty interested to see how the South side, and areas West of Ogden and south of Hyde Park evolve too. I'm really rooting for these areas to turn around and start filling back in. I would love to see Chicago be a city where people go to both the North and South sides equally and not just the North side. Not that the South side doesn't offer anything now, but it really has so much potential.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm pretty interested to see how the South side, and areas West of Ogden and south of Hyde Park evolve too. I'm really rooting for these areas to turn around and start filling back in. I would love to see Chicago be a city where people go to both the North and South sides equally and not just the North side. Not that the South side doesn't offer anything now, but it really has so much potential.

1,000% yes to all of that!

and it's already starting on the south lakefront.






area ------------------------ 2010 ------ 2020 ----- growth

inner southeast side ---- 226,241 --- 239,282 --- +13,041 (+5.8%)

inner southwest side --- 355,247 --- 359,941 --- +4,694 (+1.3%)

far southeast side ------ 224,793 --- 208,941 --- -15,852 (-7.1%)

far southwest side ------ 244,147 --- 224,898 --- -19,249 (-7.9%)

TOTAL ------------- 1,050,428 --- 1,033,062 --- -17,366 (-1.7%)



that nearly 6% growth for the inner southeast side area is nothing to scoff at for one one of the most maligned urban places in one of the most stagnant major cities in the nation. it's absolutely only just a start, but also, IT'S A FREAKING START!!!

and the inner southwest side was stable/very modest growth, which again is wonderful to see given the overall context of "THE SOUTHSIDE" <said in a scary boogeyman voice>

however, yes, the far southside is definitely still struggling, and the significant population losses down there dragged the whole southside negative overall, but nowhere near as drastically as some of us had feared, given the southside's gut-punch population loss back in the '00s (-1.7% now vs. nearly -13% then).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ardecila

There is certainly a community of black residents in West Loop/South Loop, mostly professionals, and even businesses that serve that community. I get the sense that South/West Loop feels more comfortable to them than an established white area like Lakeview or Lincoln Park, and if they have family on the South/West Sides it's closer to home as well.

revisiting this post, i dug deeper into the data to see what demos grew the most (in absolute numbers) in the greater downtown area last decade.



2010 - 2020 population growth in raw numbers:


the loop: +13,015 (+44.5%)

white: +5,733
black: +447
latino: +1,492
asian: +4,091
other: +1,252



near north: +24,997 (+31.1%)

white: +15,937
black: -156
latino: +2,613
asian: +4,173
other: +2,430



near west: +13,000 (+23.7%)

white: +6,100
black: -942
latino: +1,568
asian: +4,721
other: +1,553



near south: +7,405 (+34.6%)

white: +2,500
black: +555
latino: +899
asian: +2,474
other: +977

_______________________________________________


greater downtown total: +58,407 (+31.4%)

white: +30,270 (+27.6%)
black: -96 (-0.3%)
latino: +6,572 (+53.7%)
asian: +15,459 (+64.1%)
other: +6,212 (+136.5%)


source: https://gist.github.com/bread-fixer/...20_vs_2010-csv




i was legitimately surprised to see a net loss of black people (however so tiny) from greater downtown given the area's very impressive overall growth.

if we dug deeper into the data and looked at the incomes of the black people moving into and out of greater downtown, we'd likely see a lot of churn there.

[the urban politician]

Damn, Asians are growing like bonkers in the downtown area

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Damn, Asians are growing like bonkers in the downtown area

indeed, as a percent, asian population growth in greater downtown was +64.1% (from 24,127 in 2010 to 39,586 in 2020).

in fact, given the robust asian growth, combined with the slight loss in black population, asians are now the #2 demo in greater downtown (and that's not even counting armour square which contains the vast bulk of Chinatown).

that would have been hard to believe 25 years ago.



2020 greater downtown Chicago demos:

white: 139,985 (57.3%)
asian: 39,586 (16.2%)
black: 35,315 (14.4%)
latino: 18,806 (7.7%)
other: 10,763 (4.4%)
__________________________

total: 244,445

[Steely Dan]

check out the growth curve of greater downtown chicago over the past 3 decades:

1990 - 2000: 127,821 | 145,219 | +17,398 (+13.6%)

2000 - 2010: 145,219 | 186,038 | +40,819 (+28.1%)

2010 - 2020: 186,038 | 244,455 | +58,407 (+31.4%)


the growth rate has actually been increasing over time. if that curve continues, and we see 33% population growth this decade, that would be an additional 80,667 people, for a total of 325,112 in greater downtown chicago!

and even if 33% growth ends up being a bridge too far, 300K is still very much within sights with a growth rate of 25%.

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

check out the growth curve of greater downtown chicago over the past 3 decades:

1990 - 2000: 127,821 | 145,219 | +17,398 (+13.6%)

2000 - 2010: 145,219 | 186,038 | +40,819 (+28.1%)

2010 - 2020: 186,038 | 244,455 | +58,407 (+31.4%)


the growth rate has actually been increasing over time. if that curves continues, and we see 33% population growth this decade, that would be an additional 80,667 people, for a total of 325,112 in greater downtown chicago!

and even if 33% growth ends up being a bridge too far, 300K is still very much within sights.

you can see the physical evidence
https://chicagoyimby.com/2020/08/how...formation.html

[Steely Dan]

^ one of my favorite before/afters is this set looking south from the hancock observatory.



1975


source: https://cellcode.us/quotes/1975-heights-chicago.html





2019


source: http://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/comm...is_hands_down/

[the urban politician]

^ Can anyone here merge these two pics into one of those cool before/after montages?

[Steely Dan]

since this thread has sorta become a census 2020 chicago demographics catch-all:




Community Areas with purple dots on the map above:

15. Portage Park - went from white majority to white plurality
16. Irving Park - went from latino plurality to white plurality
22. Logan Square - went from latino majority to white majority

60. Bridgeport - went from white plurality to asian plurality

56. Garfield Ridge - went from white majority to latino majority
64. Clearing - went from white majority to latino majority
66. Chicago Lawn - went from black plurality to latino majority
70. Ashburn - went from black plurality to latino plurality

[the urban politician]

^ You're on a role, great stuff

[hauntedheadnc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ one of my favorite before/afters is this set looking south from the hancock observatory.

I'm sorry, but I have to... When I looked at those two photos, this started blasting in my mind:

• Video Link

For what it's worth, I had a fantastic time in Chicago back in May, and I hope to go back soon. We had wanted to return in September, but shit happened, as shit has a tendency to do.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i was legitimately surprised to see a net loss of black people (however so tiny) from greater downtown given the area's very impressive overall growth.

if we dug deeper into the data and looked at the incomes of the black people moving into and out of greater downtown, we'd likely see a lot of churn there.

Thanks for sharing that. I'm surprised to see a loss in Near West, but as noted elsewhere that community area is really split into two very different worlds east and west of Ashland with the areas west (or south of Congress) seeing a big loss of CHA housing and a slow gentrification of the existing housing. I consider myself a Pilsen resident but even I technically live in Near West Side, it's really enormous.

I am genuinely interested in Chicago's black middle class though, it doesn't seem to come up very often in the discourse. Is the black middle class fleeing Chicago at the same rate that black people as a whole are fleeing Chicago? If they're more likely to stay put, which areas are they staying in? Etc etc.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I am genuinely interested in Chicago's black middle class though, it doesn't seem to come up very often in the discourse. Is the black middle class fleeing Chicago at the same rate that black people as a whole are fleeing Chicago? If they're more likely to stay put, which areas are they staying in? Etc etc.

excellent questions, but i don't know where to find racial & economic movement data.

FWIW, the city overall lost about ~85K black people last decade, below are the CA's that lost over 3,000 black people.


austin: -11,824
englewood: -11,266
west englewood: -7,906
chicago lawn: -6,960
humboldt park: -6,884
roseland: -6,821
auburn gresham: -5,602
new city: -5,006
south lawndale: -4,128
roseland: -3,948
north lawndale: -3,724

total: -74,069



those 11 CA's accounted for the lion's share (87%) of the city's overall black flight.

[Chisouthside]

For alot of the nitty gritty economics data for 2010 i had to refer to the printed census volume as not all of it is available online, i wonder if for 2020 it will be the same.

[davee930]

Such an awesome city

[Steely Dan]

Sun-Times has yet another article chronicling black flight from the city:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/platfor...west-englewood


Not really much in the way of new info we didn't already know. It's mostly just individual anecdotes and some opinions about the why.

most interestingly, it contained the following graphic about the loss/gain of black people in each of the city's 77 CA's.






The lion's share of black flight is really just coming from the worst 20 or so CA's.