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Originally Posted by iheartthed
Large construction projects should stop just like everything else. Not sure why those would be any less susceptible than any other large gathering of humans. Contractors doing roof repairs on private homes is probably not a big deal.
As for the economy, we've never seen this type of disruption in any advanced economy before, let alone all of them at the same time. The airlines are already saying that they will need a bailout to survive this year, and we're only on day two of our national quasi-lockdown. Not to mention all of the small businesses that will collapse, large corporations that might collapse, and the coming severe pullback in consumer spending. We will be in a completely different economic landscape in June than we were in January.
The owner of the cafe next to my apartment building told me yesterday that he did not expect his shop to survive. That was even before New York's ban on bars and restaurants even took effect.
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Yes we have all grown accustomed to a a big fantasy which is that there are no disruptions. A blessing and a curse of modern security.
The pull back for 2nd quarter and probably third quarter will be extremely sharp. I am hoping that there is a combination of company PR and government relief to at least stave off some of the issues of no economic activity.
For example: City of Mesa is not going to shut off utilities for lack of payment until this is over, The student loan interest wave, Increased access to paid leave and unemployment benefits, Facebook is giving add-buys a stay etc.
This will all help people weather the next month or so.
I mean keep in mind, its not like bankruptcy court is working at full capacity, its not like major banks and large commercial entities arent equally hampered in all of this, so nothing is moving even accounts receivable.
You cant shut down the positives of economic activity (people making money, people getting goods and services) without also shutting the negatives. Its not like any army of repo-men are about to go out and take everyone's cars. (where would they keep them? Who would they sell them too?)
But just as sharp as this pullback is about to be, once the panic of the virus begins to clear the return will be equally sharp. There will be a lot of pent up demand exploding on the market all at once for the end of the year.
And if it doesnt ad we all die it is irrelevant anyway