NHL Thread: 2021-2022 Season

[Coldrsx]

Well then.

McD/Drai 11pts combined after 40.

[Coldrsx]

5 goal lead the worst lead in hockey?

[Darkoshvilli]

23 goals against Vancouver for Montreal in 3 games and 2 periods.

[JHikka]

Weird what happens when you no longer have Ottawa to look good against.

[Denscity]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Weird what happens when you no longer have Ottawa to look good against.

...and Winnipeg but yup.

[craner]

Playing Canadian teams every night is going to shave years off my life - so stressful.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Sorry, you are contradicting yourself. On one hand, the league can just grab a team from an owner because the simply don't like it, and sell the team for below market and keep over half the money themselves.

Melnyk still has to be willing to sell at that price.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

But on the other, they don't want franchise values hurt? You don't think the league having the ability to do that would hurt values? Who do you think the league is anyway? It's those very owners.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Even the Clippers sold for above market at the time when the NBA forced their racist owner out.

The team wasn't moving so it was obvious that the team can't sell for a reduced price.

Using expansion fees is exactly how they'd be able to keep franchise value, without giving all that money to melnyk.

Originally Posted by Djeffery

What's Melnyk's crime that doesn't end with the league tied up in court for years? Never mind that this plan revolves around the idea that if the Sens leaves town,

the city will all of a sudden figure out that long elusive downtown arena and build it on spec that they can get another team.

Melnyk is a big boy, it's more or less simple they have no reason to approve the sale of a team until an arena deal is worked out. There's no point in replacing the current owner who is just as willing to run the market into the ground as melnyk.

The question is can Melnyk can afford to wait around? He seems desperate to sell which is exactly why he's been pulling these stunts to sabotage the market.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

The discrepancy in games played is crazy during the shortened season.

My understanding is that a lot of the crazy of this season is combination of no pre season, and the excessive number of penalties being called. A lot of game momentum is being twisted thanks to 2-3 power plays. It seems to have a contagious effect where players in turn around and treat these games more and more like pre season side shows.

My guess is things are about to settle down as we get 10-15 games into the season. To me it seemed like a lot of the stronger teams were those who knew to change up their groove from last season. Teams that were reletively consistent from last year seemed like they had the longest period of time to wake up to the new season,.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

My understanding is that a lot of the crazy of this season is combination of no pre season, and the excessive number of penalties being called. A lot of game momentum is being twisted thanks to 2-3 power plays. It seems to have a contagious effect where players in turn around and treat these games more and more like pre season side shows.

My guess is things are about to settle down as we get 10-15 games into the season. To me it seemed like a lot of the stronger teams were those who knew to change up their groove from last season. Teams that were reletively consistent from last year seemed like they had the longest period of time to wake up to the new season,.

I think they're referring to the physical number of games played rather than the quality of games. In this case it comes down to teams being unable to play for a week due to COVID. Dallas, Carolina, Vegas, New Jersey have all been affected by this, with Florida having had two series postponed already because of it.

The lopsided nature of the games is mostly down to familiarity and being able to exploit it more easily. Seeing Ottawa once every three months is one thing, but getting them three times in a week is just asking for consecutive blowouts.

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

There's no point in replacing the current owner who is just as willing to run the market into the ground as melnyk.

I don't think it's physically possible for any owner to be as bad as Melnyk currently is. He's scuttling his own franchise.

Melnyk's desperate to sell because he literally has no money. It's plainly obvious.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The lopsided nature of the games is mostly down to familiarity and being able to exploit it more easily. Seeing Ottawa once every three months is one thing, but getting them three times in a week is just asking for consecutive blowouts.

My point is I don't think it'll last that long. The teams doing well are the teams that have the least roster stability. They're harder to figure out with so many new pieces. I think you'll see scoring and the differential between Win Loss ratios to reduce as teams figure out more conservative ways of playing. Up until this weekend it seemed like a whole lot of the goal scoring has been done by 2nd or 3rd line players like Statsny, while McDavids etc have been continually shut down.

Originally Posted by JHikka

I don't think it's physically possible for any owner to be as bad as Melnyk currently is. He's scuttling his own franchise.

Melnyk's desperate to sell because he literally has no money. It's plainly obvious.

The desperation factor is exactly why I think he's so easy to squeeze. He's essentially taken $100 million out of the teams value. Between the lost faith with fans, the lack of a new arena, and the poor quality of the team. They need to set an example as he represents a double threat to the league. His defiant attitude can't become a acceptable behavior, if 2-3 other owners follow suit and devalue their markets it could cause chaos within the league. The other equally threatening issue is that Ottawa becomes dependent on revenue sharing, as the team's fan base rot becomes so blatant they have to relocate the team without a $300 million franchise fee..




I'd argue the main reason Ottawa would work as an expansion team later on, is simply getting access to an expansion draft. QC would get a huge swelling of fans even if the team sucks, it's isolated enough and strong enough of a local identity. Ottawa needs to win to get Leafs-Habs fans to convert.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

The desperation factor is exactly why I think he's so easy to squeeze. He's essentially taken $100 million out of the teams value. Between the lost faith with fans, the lack of a new arena, and the poor quality of the team. I'd argue the main reason Ottawa would work as an expansion team later on, is simply getting access to an expansion draft. QC would get a huge swelling of fans even if the team sucks, it's isolated enough and strong enough of a local identity. Ottawa needs to win to get Leafs-Habs fans to convert.

I don't think there's any Canadian ownership groups willing and able to afford an expansion team at this stage and Quebec would be a net loss for the NHL on a number of fronts compared to Ottawa (smaller market, already covered region, less desirable for free agents). I'm not sure how many times we have to rehash why Quebec simply isn't that great of a market for the NHL unless under extreme emergency situations, and even then...

Despite there being no new arena agreement in Ottawa the fact remains that the team still has an arena to play out of with no glaring issues other than its location. It's not as if they're getting kicked out of the lease next year.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I don't think there's any Canadian ownership groups willing and able to afford an expansion team at this stage and Quebec would be a net loss for the NHL on a number of fronts compared to Ottawa (smaller market, already covered region, less desirable for free agents). I'm not sure how many times we have to rehash why Quebec simply isn't that great of a market for the NHL unless under extreme emergency situations, and even then...

My understanding was that there was a $500 million dollar offer for a team and it was rejected by the league. I don't think anything in quebec has changed. However the layout for the rest of the league has. They need money and they need money now. The fastest way of getting money is in expansion\relocation money. They have every reason to hold out on the next expansion(likely Houston) until they can get a sizable $650 million + expansion fee. A relocation fee, with a team moving east of Montreal instead of West is exactly the small move big reward that would maintain the value of the next expansion fee.

It's a two way issue. If Quebec is so bad with a arena, and a potentially very intense fanbase, why on Earth is Ottawa, a predominately government town with a poisoned fanbase so valuable?

The supposed value of the Sens is about $420 million. We know this is likely an overvaluation, with all the issues being suffered by the team/covid.

The league needs to set an example with Melnyk.

He's an easy squeeze because of his desperation.

Quebec in the short term is an easy way of getting some fast and easy money.

The value of a small market team stays in the $500 million range.

The leverage for a big money Houston Franchise remains in the mid term.

The long term expansion money for Ottawa remains(with the getting a team back narrative being exactly what would make it possible to overcharge Houston and offer a massive discount to a smaller market). Again $500 million expansion fee going to Ottawa would match up with the current value of Ottawa team plus an expansion team.

At the end of the day the league could pick up $800 million in expansion/relocation fees . From two markets that could never ever afford Seattle's expansion fee. They protect the value of the Houston expansion, and they promote the idea that you can't jerk the league around, unless you have a prospective buyer with an Arena.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Despite there being no new arena agreement in Ottawa the fact remains that the team still has an arena to play out of with no glaring issues other than its location. It's not as if they're getting kicked out of the lease next year.

They are selling at dirt cheap ticket prices in a Canadian Market. This isn't a Major US TV market. $25 CAD ticket prices isn't sustainable, and there's no near term way of making the worst team in the league anything more than a marginal playoff team for the next 5 years. The poisoned atmosphere is gonna mean the team is potentially trading away all of their RFA's, as the organization/team is absolutely hateful to play for. Brady Tkathuk being an obvious person who won't put up with this for much longer.

The only way this team is gonna be worth it is if they are playoff contenders with a winning team. This would require new ownership with a new roster. The expansion/relocation team shuffle is exactly how you could pull this off.

[Coldrsx]

Any other NHL teams capitalizing on their online 50/50 opportunities? This is an order of magnitude or more than in-person games and is quite remarkable.

----
Total Take-home
Wed. Jan. 13, 2021 Vancouver Canucks A-13740568 $1,121,160 --- $560,580
Thu. Jan. 14, 2021 Vancouver Canucks B-11017887 $769,690 ---$384,845
Sat. Jan. 16, 2021 Montreal Canadiens A-11238883 $882,275 --- $441,137.50
Mon. Jan. 18, 2021 Montreal Canadiens B-11801683 $597,165 --- $298,582.50
Wed. Jan. 20, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs A-11226401 $459,010 --- $229,505
Fri. Jan. 22, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-12735927 $918,285 --- $459,142.50
Sun. Jan. 24, 2021 Winnipeg Jets B-11371721 $688,080 --- $344,040
Tue. Jan. 26, 2021 Winnipeg Jets B-10164605 $645,890 --- $322,945
Thu. Jan. 28, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-11759719 $591,885 --- $295,942.50
Sat. Jan. 30, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-12320557. $1,112,920 --- $556,460
Sun. Jan. 31, 2021 Ottawa Senators B-12149293 $728,735 --- $364,367.50

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

My understanding was that there was a $500 million dollar offer for a team and it was rejected by the league. I don't think anything in quebec has changed. However the layout for the rest of the league has. They need money and they need money now. The fastest way of getting money is in expansion\relocation money. They have every reason to hold out on the next expansion(likely Houston) until they can get a sizable $650 million + expansion fee. A relocation fee, with a team moving east of Montreal instead of West is exactly the small move big reward that would maintain the value of the next expansion fee.

The NHL took out a $1B line of credit to distribute to teams prior to this season, and with more and more teams slowly getting fans into arenas (Columbus applied yesterday, as one) these revenue streams should slowly resolve themselves throughout this season, resulting in a more or less normal 2021-2022 season. NHL's new TV deal in the US will be negotiated soon, likely with multiple partners, which should garner them more revenue into the future. Worst case they hold the salary cap still for a few years.

All of this is to say that in the immediate term I don't think they need to start handing out relocations or expansions left, right, and centre.

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

It's a two way issue. If Quebec is so bad with a arena, and a potentially very intense fanbase, why on Earth is Ottawa, a predominately government town with a poisoned fanbase so valuable?

• Ottawa is a bigger market.
• Ottawa corporate support is better.
• Ottawa has proven it has the fanbase when the owner isn't purposefully damaging the team.
• Ottawa soaks up both English and French media and marketing from the NHL - Quebec does not do this.

But more to the point, the second the NHL starts moving teams around for the sheer hell of it the more it devalues teams. Team values are inherently based on stability and franchise sustainability over the long term, so moving Ottawa puts a dent in this. I think you're overestimating the fees in which the NHL recoups for relocations, especially when they're worth far less than potential expansions in Ottawa's case.

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

Quebec in the short term is an easy way of getting some fast and easy money.

It's lazy and puts the league in a worse position than it is now in five years.

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

The leverage for a big money Houston Franchise remains in the mid term.

Whoever wants a team in Houston (it won't be Fertitta) has to pony up money for expansion and for renting out the arena they won't be owning.

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

The long term expansion money for Ottawa remains(with the getting a team back narrative being exactly what would make it possible to overcharge Houston and offer a massive discount to a smaller market). Again $500 million expansion fee going to Ottawa would match up with the current value of Ottawa team plus an expansion team.

Who in Ottawa puts up ~$750M CAD for an expansion franchise? The town has corporate support but these sorts of numbers are reserved for only a select number of people in Canada.

It's nice that you think the NHL can simply mess around with Senators fans by moving their team and then giving them another and pretending nothing happened but this simply isn't going to be the case. A simpler idea would be a behind-closed-doors deal between the NHL, Melnyk, and a potential buyer, where Melnyk is bought out with the NHL using the loans they've supplied Melnyk with as leverage (the league was able to secure a better line of credit for Ottawa at more favourable rates than Melnyk himself would have been able to achieve). Push Melnyk out, bring in literally anyone who is willing to keep the team in Ottawa, and then sort out an arena deal in the mid-term.

Your entire argument for the past three months has been that the NHL is in a precarious financial hole, capable of sinking and falling at any moment, and I simply don't believe that to be the case, at least not enough to begin moving franchises around for quick cash. COVID has dented all sports leagues to some degree but I think the NHL has fared fairly well all things considered, between fielding the bubble playoffs to beginning this season.

[HomeInMyShoes]

Originally Posted by craner

Playing Canadian teams every night is going to shave years off my life - so stressful.

Having lived in Montreal, Ottawa, Edmonton and Winnipeg over the years I am having a lot of mixed feelings every day.

Of course, I can always just default to Vancouver can suck it, when it doubt.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Your entire argument for the past three months has been that the NHL is in a precarious financial hole, capable of sinking and falling at any moment, and I simply don't believe that to be the case, at least not enough to begin moving franchises around for quick cash. COVID has dented all sports leagues to some degree but I think the NHL has fared fairly well all things considered, between fielding the bubble playoffs to beginning this season.


NHL's new TV deal in the US will be negotiated soon, likely with multiple partners, which should garner them more revenue into the future. Worst case they hold the salary cap still for a few years.

These two things are not unrelated. You'd be crazy to think that deal wouldn't be radically lower than it is going to be if they didn't have this season. I'm still very skeptical the new deal is gonna anywhere near the ballpark of the NBA's previous deal.

Originally Posted by JHikka

The NHL took out a $1B line of credit to distribute to teams prior to this season, and with more and more teams slowly getting fans into arenas (Columbus applied yesterday, as one) these revenue streams should slowly resolve themselves throughout this season, resulting in a more or less normal 2021-2022 season.

All of this is to say that in the immediate term I don't think they need to start handing out relocations or expansions left, right, and centre.

I never said they had to be handing out relocation fees left right and center. Ottawa-QC is a unique situation.

Originally Posted by JHikka

• Ottawa is a bigger market.
• Ottawa corporate support is better.
• Ottawa has proven it has the fanbase when the owner isn't purposefully damaging the team.
• Ottawa soaks up both English and French media and marketing from the NHL - Quebec does not do this.

Ottawa's market size is reduced because of the sheer number of Hab's and Leafs fans.

Corporate support is less than it should be because of the governments inability to buy booths etc.

Sure Ottawa could be a good market with a good team. But that's 5 year away, assuming the hatred for the Sens doesn't grow as the team suffers.

Ottawa's marketing territory is heavily pinched by Habs and Leafs. Their largest Anglophone market is Atlantic Canada. A place much closer to QC, and a place that has minimal interest in the Sens. The Nordqiues have major mystique because of their history.

Regardless the argument isn't whether or not Ottawa is so bad, but that it simply isn't radically better than QC. The lack of an Arena being the most obvious problem.

The idea that Ottawa could afford a relocation fee later on is exactly why this would work.

Originally Posted by JHikka

But more to the point, the second the NHL starts moving teams around for the sheer hell of it the more it devalues teams. Team values are inherently based on stability and franchise sustainability over the long term, so moving Ottawa puts a dent in this. I think you're overestimating the fees in which the NHL recoups for relocations, especially when they're worth far less than potential expansions in Ottawa's case.

This relocation and fee would be a 1 time deal in a unique situation, at a unique time in history. The one timer relocation fee of $300 million isn't something that'd likely ever happen again.

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's lazy and puts the league in a worse position than it is now in five years.

It's absolutely short term thinking, but if the league is stuck doing a bridge deal for its television contracts, it's a great way of holding over for several years, until the global economy recovers.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Whoever wants a team in Houston (it won't be Fertitta) has to pony up money for expansion and for renting out the arena they won't be owning.

Texas has a population of 30 million people. It only has 1 team, in a league that has a massive interest in getting larger television contract. It also has the economy least likely to suffer post covid. The league wants, in and the mass exodus of california billionaires is a big bargaining tool.

Originally Posted by JHikka

Who in Ottawa puts up ~$750M CAD for an expansion franchise? The town has corporate support but these sorts of numbers are reserved for only a select number of people in Canada.

Well somehow little QC has offered up $500 million USD for an expansion fee, so I can only assume they are capable of doing so. That ignores the part where the league needs to pretend it's lowest valued teams are in the $400 million range.

Neither market could ever afford Seattles expansion fees. This unique solution would allow for serious discounts in both markets.

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's nice that you think the NHL can simply mess around with Senators fans by moving their team and then giving them another and pretending nothing happened but this simply isn't going to be the case.

The hatred for Melnyk is the main reason this kind of shuffle would work.

Originally Posted by JHikka

A simpler idea would be a behind-closed-doors deal between the NHL, Melnyk, and a potential buyer, where Melnyk is bought out with the NHL using the loans they've supplied Melnyk with as leverage (the league was able to secure a better line of credit for Ottawa at more favourable rates than Melnyk himself would have been able to achieve). Push Melnyk out, bring in literally anyone who is willing to keep the team in Ottawa, and then sort out an arena deal in the mid-term.

How on Earth do you push him out without rewarding him for his behavior? How does this not become a normal behavior throughout a league seeking stability? If you don't overpay him, how do you maintain franchise value? Where is the league gonna get the money to buy out Melnyk, if they are already cash strapped?

The relocation deal effectively does much of what you mention, except it offers up some high value relocation/expansion money. Most importantly from a QC ownership group that was willing to pay $500 million just a few years ago?

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by HomeInMyShoes

Having lived in Montreal, Ottawa, Edmonton and Winnipeg over the years I am having a lot of mixed feelings every day.

Of course, I can always just default to Vancouver can suck it, when it doubt.

My wife's from BC, in Newfoundland Sens had our television rights. Both Habs and Leafs have big histories in my family. I became a Jets fan because we had their farm team ( St.John's Ice Caps). It's hard to hate the Oilers as McDavid just seems to be such a likable super star, just the right amount of insecurity to temper what should be a massive ego. For me all my hatred goes towards the Flames by simple default, but thankfully Matthew Kthachuk has made this so incredibly easy.

That being said I'm on a burn out phase. I've tried to watch every single game in the division. I'm streaming it so I've made a habit of watching two games at once. I.e. fast forward through all the bobble head talk/commercials/penalty challenges etc, watch period 1 for the habs, swap to period 1 for the jets, swap back to habs for period 2 etc.

I've tried watching 1 game and than another, but the bobble heads insist on giving me the score for the other ongoing games. Why give scores to other games when anyone and their dog can pull up the score on their phone? I've talked to other NHL.tv users, and it's a constant issue trying to avoid spoilers. Seems like it's bad business if you want to expand your subscription customers. Streaming games seems to be a great way to avoid the time zone issue, and grow the game to beyond traditional 9-5 fans/boomers. The perk of being able to skip through commercials when watching replays might make streaming less ideal for sponsors, but then you have to remember you can watch many many more games streaming than you can when you watch live.

[LakeLocker]

Just a random thought, is a fixed cap gonna increase inequality?

The cap is more or less a lie. The separation between the floor and cap has created the illusion that there is far more equity in the league than is reality.

When you look into it, the differences in tax rates is alarming. It's also alarming how they tend to match up with teams like TBL/Dallas who are doing well and teams like who Toronto/Winnipeg/Detroit/Columbus who seem to be perpetually "overpaying" their core players at the expensive of more critical elements like defense.

Even if it's only a 15-25% difference it's exactly the right amount to cause a great team to be missing that 1-2 players needed to become a true contender.

I mean I know this is a good bit of "same as it ever was" but maybe now would be a good time to introduce some sort adjustment factor?

Seems like it's a bit ironic that the biggest subsidy to sunbelt states is their preferable tax rates.

Teams like TBL/Dallas/Vegas seem like they will never have to worry about the rebuilds.

Just the same as more and more teams are at the cap, more and more teams will be trying to tank to get that number 1 draft pick. As more high tax teams tank, the more that 15 to 20 percent more in a redstate goes from being a great option to a necessity.

EDIT: Even when you look at exceptions like the penguins it seems like a whole lot of that is attributed to pre cap momentum.

REEDIT: Is the potential post career options in places like Toronto gonna make up for the difference? It may explain why a wave of throtons/spezzas might end up being in Toronto.

Win a cup in Dallas and that's a profitable year, win in Toronto and even the 4 line will be getting major commentator deals etc.

[Black Star]

Originally Posted by Coldrsx

Any other NHL teams capitalizing on their online 50/50 opportunities? This is an order of magnitude or more than in-person games and is quite remarkable.

----
Total Take-home
Wed. Jan. 13, 2021 Vancouver Canucks A-13740568 $1,121,160 --- $560,580
Thu. Jan. 14, 2021 Vancouver Canucks B-11017887 $769,690 ---$384,845
Sat. Jan. 16, 2021 Montreal Canadiens A-11238883 $882,275 --- $441,137.50
Mon. Jan. 18, 2021 Montreal Canadiens B-11801683 $597,165 --- $298,582.50
Wed. Jan. 20, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs A-11226401 $459,010 --- $229,505
Fri. Jan. 22, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-12735927 $918,285 --- $459,142.50
Sun. Jan. 24, 2021 Winnipeg Jets B-11371721 $688,080 --- $344,040
Tue. Jan. 26, 2021 Winnipeg Jets B-10164605 $645,890 --- $322,945
Thu. Jan. 28, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-11759719 $591,885 --- $295,942.50
Sat. Jan. 30, 2021 Toronto Maple Leafs B-12320557. $1,112,920 --- $556,460
Sun. Jan. 31, 2021 Ottawa Senators B-12149293 $728,735 --- $364,367.50

Sun. Jan. 31, 2021 Ottawa Senators....$364,367.50
I was 100 away from the winner

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by LakeLocker

Ottawa's market size is reduced because of the sheer number of Hab's and Leafs fans.

Corporate support is less than it should be because of the governments inability to buy booths etc.

Quebec City has these issues as well, though.

A good chunk of QC's market is made up of Habs fans. It might not be as extreme as Ottawa where you have two teams rivalling you, plus the Gatineau Habs factor (25-30% of the metro), but still there were and are divided loyalties in Quebec City.

One difference with Quebec City is that the rest of Quebec including Montreal at least pays attention to it, which is not so much the case with the Senators in Ontario and especially not in the GTA.

This has an impact in terms of media and corporate support, which for the Nordiques tended to be Quebec-wide (even with Montreal-based oufits) instead of focused just on the Greater Quebec City area.

Whereas the Senators have very little reach in Ontario outside of the areas roughly encompassed by Cornwall-to-Pembroke. It's all dominated by the Leafs.