Planning for shrinking cities

[ssiguy]

Well I guess it's time to reignite this thread. As I noted in the Provincial Economies thread, our population growth rate has collapsed. We grew by less than 25,000 in August in what is usually a high growth month. Annualised this is a MINIMUM of a 50% decline in population growth over last year.

What many on here thought could never happen is happening and immigration will remain extremely low until a widely available vaccine becomes available AND employment returns to pre-COVID levels. Due to immigration accounting for 3/4 of our population growth, many cities and towns will see at best population stagnation and many declines. Toronto, although always a high population growth centre, is completely dependent upon immigration for that growth as Toronto consistently has had a net-loss of people to other parts of the province. This is the same for Vancouver but less so Montreal.

This virus will have 2 long-term consequences: First, it will forever change the way we see our public health, personal interaction, and high density living. Second, it will change how we work as it has created a paradigm shift in our workplaces and our ability to work from home.

Now that immigration has plunge and those "forced" to move to the cities for work or school no longer have due to remote working/learning, perhaps iot's our big cities who should be worried?

[Truenorth00]

A few quarters of slow immigration =\= shrinking cities.

The sky is not falling.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

A few quarters of slow immigration =\= shrinking cities.

The sky is not falling.

Ignoring covid death, we have a higher death rate than birth rate. The sky may not be falling, but if this keeps up, we could slowly see a shrinking population.

Having said that, I feel we will see our immigration numbers rise back up to precovid numbers within 5 years of the pandemic being over.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Well I guess it's time to reignite this thread. As I noted in the Provincial Economies thread, our population growth rate has collapsed. We grew by less than 25,000 in August in what is usually a high growth month. Annualised this is a MINIMUM of a 50% decline in population growth over last year.

We're still reporting growth; in the midst of a global pandemic.

There is no shrinkage of Canada's population on the horizon.

There is no reason to believe Toronto or other large cities will shrink either.

Certainly there may be some slowdown in housing construction, but I wouldn't bet on it.

High prices have left much latent demand, with record-low borrowing costs; that seems improbable, at least in the medium term.

What many on here thought could never happen is happening and immigration will remain extremely low until a widely available vaccine becomes available AND employment returns to pre-COVID levels. Due to immigration accounting for 3/4 of our population growth, many cities and towns will see at best population stagnation and many declines. Toronto, although always a high population growth centre, is completely dependent upon immigration for that growth as Toronto consistently has had a net-loss of people to other parts of the province. This is the same for Vancouver but less so Montreal.

People leave Toronto (internal migration) largely to Toronto's suburbs; with a primary motive being lower housing costs.

In the event of a sustained drop in housing prices due to lower demand, from lower immigration, I would expect more people to stay in Toronto; and more internal migration to Toronto from those who previously found it affordable.

This virus will have 2 long-term consequences: First, it will forever change the way we see our public health, personal interaction, and high density living. Second, it will change how we work as it has created a paradigm shift in our workplaces and our ability to work from home.

I don't see either of these as particularly likely; but note, that to the extend that WFH increases materially, that frees up room on previously overcrowded public transit, making City-living more desirable.

Now that immigration has plunge and those "forced" to move to the cities for work or school no longer have due to remote working/learning, perhaps iot's our big cities who should be worried?

Again, I think you're making a remarkable series of assumptions and leaps of logic.

There's no question immigration and growth are well off in recent quarters.

But, in fact, Canada's economy is already rebounding, before, an apparently large stimulus coming this fall (likely kicking in Q2 2021).

On population, its worth noting we took in 19,000 immigrants in June, in the middle of a Pandemic.

https://www.cicnews.com/2020/08/cana...html#gs.fepsti

That is down from 34,000 the previous June, but well up from 11,000 in May



Overall, while your hypothesis is not without some real possibility, I don't believe the evidence supports that it is the most probable outcome.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Ignoring covid death, we have a higher death rate than birth rate. The sky may not be falling, but if this keeps up, we could slowly see a shrinking population.

Having said that, I feel we will see our immigration numbers rise back up to precovid numbers within 5 years of the pandemic being over.

In 2018, the Canadian birth rate was 10.2/1000. The death rate was 8.8/1000. Canada is not shrinking (yet).

I agree that immigration will rebound to pre COVID levels in a couple of years.

Canadian cities are not going to shrink. We are an urban nation.

There are a few cities that are in some trouble, but this is due to local factors.

[ssiguy]

I think it's time to renew this thread because something monumental has happened that is a forbearer of what is to come to Canada..............China is now shrinking.

The birth rate has collapsed and, despite what Emperor Xi likes to espouse, it has peaked and will decline starting in 2022 according to a Bloomberg report on Nov 11/21 and a SCMP report on Dec 04/21. Those thinking that such a thing can't happen in Canada need a wakeup call.

The reality is that Canada has the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking world and it will, like every other country, continue to fall. Canada could be just a decade away from zero natural growth when deaths begin to outnumber births. Of course Canada has immigration so we will not decline but even that is deceptive. If Canada starts to decline by a small 0.4% per annum that will mean we will need 300,000 immigrants a year just to maintain our population.

That's all fine except our immigrants tend to go to exclusively our bigger cities. Certainly the days of everyone going to either Tor, Mon, or Van are over as more are moving to other centres but very few still settle in areas of less than 200,000. Some smaller places will benefit from big city escapees but that is basically relegated to Toronto and Vancouver where people are fleeing the high cost of housing but what about all our other cities and towns?

What are we going to do, can we reverse the trend, should we reverse the trend, or should we admit to ourselves {as many US cities have done} that their days of growth are over and all planning should be based upon the premise that we are shrinking and probably always be from now on?

[Denscity]

Thousands of people are moving to BC from other provinces but not sure what percent is to Vancouver.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think it's time to renew this thread because something monumental has happened that is a forbearer of what is to come to Canada..............China is now shrinking.

The birth rate has collapsed and, despite what Emperor Xi likes to espouse, it has peaked and will decline starting in 2022 according to a Bloomberg report on Nov 11/21 and a SCMP report on Dec 04/21. Those thinking that such a thing can't happen in Canada need a wakeup call.

The reality is that Canada has the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking world and it will, like every other country, continue to fall. Canada could be just a decade away from zero natural growth when deaths begin to outnumber births. Of course Canada has immigration so we will not decline but even that is deceptive. If Canada starts to decline by a small 0.4% per annum that will mean we will need 300,000 immigrants a year just to maintain our population.

That's all fine except our immigrants tend to go to exclusively our bigger cities. Certainly the days of everyone going to either Tor, Mon, or Van are over as more are moving to other centres but very few still settle in areas of less than 200,000. Some smaller places will benefit from big city escapees but that is basically relegated to Toronto and Vancouver where people are fleeing the high cost of housing but what about all our other cities and towns?

What are we going to do, can we reverse the trend, should we reverse the trend, or should we admit to ourselves {as many US cities have done} that their days of growth are over and all planning should be based upon the premise that we are shrinking and probably always be from now on?

China is shrinking because they would abort females and only want males. So, now there are so few women to give birth to more babies.

As far as Canada's birth rate, we have always needed immigration to grow. The blind "patriots" don't seem to really get that.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think it's time to renew this thread because something monumental has happened that is a forbearer of what is to come to Canada..............China is now shrinking.

The birth rate has collapsed and, despite what Emperor Xi likes to espouse, it has peaked and will decline starting in 2022 according to a Bloomberg report on Nov 11/21 and a SCMP report on Dec 04/21. Those thinking that such a thing can't happen in Canada need a wakeup call.

The reality is that Canada has the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking world and it will, like every other country, continue to fall. Canada could be just a decade away from zero natural growth when deaths begin to outnumber births. Of course Canada has immigration so we will not decline but even that is deceptive. If Canada starts to decline by a small 0.4% per annum that will mean we will need 300,000 immigrants a year just to maintain our population.

That's all fine except our immigrants tend to go to exclusively our bigger cities. Certainly the days of everyone going to either Tor, Mon, or Van are over as more are moving to other centres but very few still settle in areas of less than 200,000. Some smaller places will benefit from big city escapees but that is basically relegated to Toronto and Vancouver where people are fleeing the high cost of housing but what about all our other cities and towns?

What are we going to do, can we reverse the trend, should we reverse the trend, or should we admit to ourselves {as many US cities have done} that their days of growth are over and all planning should be based upon the premise that we are shrinking and probably always be from now on?

IIRC rising unaffordability is the biggest barrier to having children in China, which is not too different from what we have here (although the problem is much worse in China).

Fertility is declining globally, but so far immigration is continuing at a pretty torrid pace in Canada. We'll likely hit 400,000 newcomers this year and next year. At some point, there may be more demand for immigrants than qualified candidates available, but I don't think we're there yet.

To be honest, I'm not really sure what you're arguing for in this thread. If anything the biggest failing of Canadian cities has been that they haven't grown fast enough to accommodate our population growth.

[ssiguy]

There are already many Canadian cities that are suffering from basic population stagnation or even population decline. We are overwhelmingly urbanites on this forum so have a natural bias and assume that if it happens in our bigger cities it must be happening everywhere else. It's like multi-racial/ethnic communities are shown endlessly on TV but the reality on the ground is that most cities in the country of less than 100k have changed very little in the last 30 years and are still nearly as white as they have always been.

Despite this scenario for many of our cities we continue to have an urban planning scenario with the "build it and they will come" mentality and that if it worked in the past it still will work in the future. This leads to endless sprawl while huge swaths of the inner city suffer from shrinking populations or decline and all the decay and extra social/financial costs that come with it.

As far as immigration, there is already a push back developing and not just from conservative people but also from left wing urbanites. Why are we letting even more people into the country when we can't even supply enough housing for the ones already have? Why are we letting more foreign students into the country when my kid can't get into university? Why are we letting any unskilled labour in when all they do is suppress wages in already low income sectors?

As our population ages and natural growth turns into natural decline and even more immigrants are needed to just to eek out modest population growth there will inevitably be a point when Canadians say that's enough.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There are already many Canadian cities that are suffering from basic population stagnation or even population decline. We are overwhelmingly urbanites on this forum so have a natural bias and assume that if it happens in our bigger cities it must be happening everywhere else. It's like multi-racial/ethnic communities are shown endlessly on TV but the reality on the ground is that most cities in the country of less than 100k have changed very little in the last 30 years and are still nearly as white as they have always been.

Despite this scenario for many of our cities we continue to have an urban planning scenario with the "build it and they will come" mentality and that if it worked in the past it still will work in the future. This leads to endless sprawl while huge swaths of the inner city suffer from shrinking populations or decline and all the decay and extra social/financial costs that come with it.

As far as immigration, there is already a push back developing and not just from conservative people but also from left wing urbanites. Why are we letting even more people into the country when we can't even supply enough housing for the ones already have? Why are we letting more foreign students into the country when my kid can't get into university? Why are we letting any unskilled labour in when all they do is suppress wages in already low income sectors?

As our population ages and natural growth turns into natural decline and even more immigrants are needed to just to eek out modest population growth there will inevitably be a point when Canadians say that's enough.

What cities over 100k are stagnating or declining? From the previous census only Thunder Bay declined in population with your parameters. In fact if we look by CMA’s the only one in any sort of population decline from estimates is Sept-Iles at a measly 28k metro population. Every other cma in the top 100 has experienced population growth with the majority growing by a yearly increase >= 1%. Canada is the fastest growing nation in the G7 for a reason.

Also, we just re-elected a government who has been pushing for high levels of immigration ever since getting into office. Not to mention that Gen z and Millennials are more likely to welcome even higher levels of immigration and diversity of people then previous generations because we actually grew up with the children of first immigrant parents (myself included). This is all to say Canadian municipalities >50k are not going to shrink for the foreseeable future. Especially when we inevitably welcome millions of climate refugees 20-30 years from now. I would even bet the government would actually take advantage of this future population boom by making these refugees move to towns in decline or need a significant population boosts rather then the GTA or GVA.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There are already many Canadian cities that are suffering from basic population stagnation or even population decline. We are overwhelmingly urbanites on this forum so have a natural bias and assume that if it happens in our bigger cities it must be happening everywhere else. It's like multi-racial/ethnic communities are shown endlessly on TV but the reality on the ground is that most cities in the country of less than 100k have changed very little in the last 30 years and are still nearly as white as they have always been.

Despite this scenario for many of our cities we continue to have an urban planning scenario with the "build it and they will come" mentality and that if it worked in the past it still will work in the future. This leads to endless sprawl while huge swaths of the inner city suffer from shrinking populations or decline and all the decay and extra social/financial costs that come with it.

As far as immigration, there is already a push back developing and not just from conservative people but also from left wing urbanites. Why are we letting even more people into the country when we can't even supply enough housing for the ones already have? Why are we letting more foreign students into the country when my kid can't get into university? Why are we letting any unskilled labour in when all they do is suppress wages in already low income sectors?

As our population ages and natural growth turns into natural decline and even more immigrants are needed to just to eek out modest population growth there will inevitably be a point when Canadians say that's enough.

You bring up some good points that I would like to expand on.

I am from a small city that at the time, and to this day, is about 50,000 people. Most of the city was, and still is white and Christian and omnivores. Being anything that wasn't all 3 meant that life may have been rough. When I was a kid, I was all 3. as I got older, one of those 3 are no longer me, and more and more the only thing that will never change is my skin colour. We had our token Black/Asian/Muslim people in the city, but there weren't many. That is changing. We are seeing these people doing more than just working at the ethnic restaurant. This is the new world of my hometown. The people who see this change as a problem tend to be the ones that meet all 3 of what I listed. They are the ones who may not feel they are racists, misogynistic, or discriminatory to anyone. We need to work with these people to help them still have a place in the world that they fear they are losing.

To fix sprawl, the municipalities should remove the different types of residential/mixed use designations. All properties along any main thoroughfare should be designated mixed use, and should permit building mixed use as a normal thing that does not require neighbour permission. All regular residential properties should allow for up to a triplex permitted without neighbour permission. This would quickly allow the densification of the small cities.

The other thing cities need to do is to stop building major draws on the outskirts. Here in Sudbury, the new arena is a mess, partly due to it being planned to be built far from the downtown. The other thing about it is it will be built right next to the city landfill. Everyone complains about downtown being unsafe, but moving the arena further out will only exacerbate the problem.

Your concerns about immigration shows your lack of understanding the real issues. Let's take the university issue. Because we keep having governments that cut the funding to those universities, they are forced to look elsewhere for funding. The foreign student is paying about 2-5x what your kid would pay.That extra money is needed to cover the costs to run the university. Laurentian University is highlighting that. Read into the mess and it becomes clear that it is more than just bad decisions from the board of Governors and the Presidents of the university. So, if there is 10 spots, then some of those spots will never be available to Canadian citizens due to the provincial cut backs we have been voting for in the last few decades. Our taxes are too low for what we have, and the politicians continue to promise more things. The good thing is, those foreign students must leave once they are done school. If they stay, they are not working in low wage jobs.

We have a problem in society. We want everything for the cheapest we can get. If regular Canadians, making minimum wage were to pick tomatoes, the price would skyrocket. So, they get Temporary Foreign Workers in to do the work that we won't do for the wage that we have dictated it should be.

The person pumping gas, or flipping burgers that is an immigrant most likely is educated and flipping burgers in Canada is better than what they left. The problem is we don't recognize all training/education/certification/licenses. For example, if you have a drivers license from some countries, none of it is valid. Your MD degree and the license to practice also isn't always the same. Maybe we should cover the costs for this person to get certified/licensed here so they don't clog up the low wage sector. However, then doing that would lead to people then saying they are taking our jobs. We have a doctor shortage, and I'll bet someone like you might try to say that that immigrant who willingly moved to the middle of nowhere to practice medicine is taking a job from your kid.

I am already at the "enough" phase.
Enough with cutting taxes.
Enough with thinking someone is taking your job.
Enough with blaming the immigrant who is willing to work for what you can easily get.
Enough with complaining without action.

[CivicBlues]

So this entire thread is yet another soapbox for ssiguy to bitch about immigrants? Colour me surprised! But I'm glad nobody is taking the bait. Try again.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

What cities over 100k are stagnating or declining? From the previous census only Thunder Bay declined in population with your parameters. In fact if we look by CMA’s the only one in any sort of population decline from estimates is Sept-Iles at a measly 28k metro population. Every other cma in the top 100 has experienced population growth with the majority growing by a yearly increase >= 1%. Canada is the fastest growing nation in the G7 for a reason.

So what do you suggest we do with all the cities under 100k that are shrinking or suffering population stagnation while their citizens get much older?

Should we just forget about and let them rot? If you think we should then don't bitch when their schools are half empty while you urban kid is sitting in a portable. Don't bitch when their hospitals serve fewer people than they use to while you wait in the corridor for 4 hours to see a doctor. Don't bitch when you see historic structures in our small areas being torn down due to lack of upkeep. Don't bitch when there are hundreds of empty lots in a city while the urbanites continue to destroy our farmland and natural areas. Don't bitch you can't get a government service near you as they have to maintain those services in smaller shrinking areas. Don't bitch when their transit system suffers from declining ridership while you have to wait for 2 or 3 buses to go by before you can get on. Don't bitch when all the young people from these cities and towns have to move to the big city making rentals impossible to find.

Whether you think we should let some of our cities & small towns rot or not, don't be under any illusion................you, as an urbanite, are already paying a fortune for it.

[ssiguy]

swimmer_spe.....................

This is not about about blaming immigrants for all our woes. Quite the contrary, I happen to support strong immigration and our future economic & financial future is dependent upon immigrants and the skills and tax base they provide.

I am very well aware of the fact that post-secondary need those foreign students and the much higher tuition they provide to help keep our schools afloat due to years of declining per-pupil funding from both Ottawa and the provinces. I also know that we need cheap foreign labour in areas that Canadians simply won't do the job. I also know that the vast majority of Canadian immigrants are exceptional well educated/trained and most of the problem lies in them not being able to use those skills.

What you have stated is completely factual but that is part of the problem...........people don't work in a facts based world but a perceptive one. We as a society {including you and I} have our own perceptions and biases that we bring to any conversation. People do not act {or react} simply based upon stats and that is reflected not only in our personal lifestyles and beliefs but also in how we vote. This last component is very important because immigration levels are a political decision made by politicians who couldn't care less about reality but rather solely on their ability to get re-elected and they are more than willing to toss all their values and fine sensibilities out the window to it.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

So what do you suggest we do with all the cities under 100k that are shrinking or suffering population stagnation while their citizens get much older?

Should we just forget about and let them rot? If you think we should then don't bitch when their schools are half empty while you urban kid is sitting in a portable. Don't bitch when their hospitals serve fewer people than they use to while you wait in the corridor for 4 hours to see a doctor. Don't bitch when you see historic structures in our small areas being torn down due to lack of upkeep. Don't bitch when there are hundreds of empty lots in a city while the urbanites continue to destroy our farmland and natural areas. Don't bitch you can't get a government service near you as they have to maintain those services in smaller shrinking areas. Don't bitch when their transit system suffers from declining ridership while you have to wait for 2 or 3 buses to go by before you can get on. Don't bitch when all the young people from these cities and towns have to move to the big city making rentals impossible to find.

Whether you think we should let some of our cities & small towns rot or not, don't be under any illusion................you, as an urbanite, are already paying a fortune for it.

What to do with shrinking cities? Give them better access to the things people in bigger cities have access to. For starters, why is it that every snowstorm, schools close in Northern ON, but a snow day in Southern ON is almost unheard of?

Fund the schools, not on a per student basis, but on a per grade basis. For instance, kindergarten, whether it has 1 student or 100 students need similar things. The same can be said about grade 12 advanced astrophysics. Yet we don't. We base it on a per student basis.

Stop the sprawl in the big cities by actually not allowing any further construction on farmland.

Why not plan a transit system that works. GOVA sucks. It is almost useless. Or better still, change the TTC to match the headaches that the smaller ones face, such as missing transfers and buses that never come.

It is time we stop the rot.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

swimmer_spe.....................

This is not about about blaming immigrants for all our woes. Quite the contrary, I happen to support strong immigration and our future economic & financial future is dependent upon immigrants and the skills and tax base they provide.

I am very well aware of the fact that post-secondary need those foreign students and the much higher tuition they provide to help keep our schools afloat due to years of declining per-pupil funding from both Ottawa and the provinces. I also know that we need cheap foreign labour in areas that Canadians simply won't do the job. I also know that the vast majority of Canadian immigrants are exceptional well educated/trained and most of the problem lies in them not being able to use those skills.

What you have stated is completely factual but that is part of the problem...........people don't work in a facts based world but a perceptive one. We as a society {including you and I} have our own perceptions and biases that we bring to any conversation. People do not act {or react} simply based upon stats and that is reflected not only in our personal lifestyles and beliefs but also in how we vote. This last component is very important because immigration levels are a political decision made by politicians who couldn't care less about reality but rather solely on their ability to get re-elected and they are more than willing to toss all their values and fine sensibilities out the window to it.

Tell me that you are a bigot without saying that you are a bigot. You have not pointed out a solution, except to point out your kid lost a chance because you think an immigrant took it.

[TorontoDrew]

How is this even a thread? I almost spat my beer out when I saw the title.

[swimmer_spe]

Deleted

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

I am actually the OP and I started this when I noticed that the news is full of people leaving the city. So, if Toronto lost 1% per year for the next few years, how much damage could that do?

Huh? Post #1 is from ssiguy, not you

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Huh? Post #1 is from ssiguy, not you

You are correct. Sorry.