Oregon Population Thread Including PSU and Census Data

[colossalorder]

A Low-Income Housing Developer Swears Off Any More Portland Construction

Michael Gregory would rather kick himself in the nuts a hundred times.

https://www.wweek.com/news/2023/05/1...-construction/

[kawdogs]

https://www.oregonlive.com/data/2024...reau-says.html

Does anyone really believe the population of Portland has declined 3.3% since 2020? Wouldn't that drive a significant reduction in cost of housing?

Some basic numbers. Keep me honest if my numbers are wrong.

2020 Census population of Portland 562,000
3.3% reduction since 2020 562,000 X .033 = 21,516
Avg people per household 2.21 in Portland
Number of "empty" housing units 21,516 / 2.21 = 9735

New construction avg units per year 2018 - 2021 3381
New housing units since 2020 3381 X 4 = 13,524

"Empty" plus New construction since 2020 9735 + 13,524 = 23,259

By my math there should be over 23,000 extra housing units available since 2020 yet housing rent & selling prices are up over this period.

So what is going on? Is the Census Bureau wrong? Why is the cost of housing still high if there are all these extra available units?

[subterranean]

I haven’t reviewed the numbers or have an opinion on the drop, but the most telling number wouldn’t be raw population but households. We could be losing population but the share as a percent of population old enough to form new households could be growing despite overall population loss. I don’t know that to be happening, just an observation.

[sopdx]

From reading the article, it states that the Census Bureau uses information from the IRS and that the information is outdated - from 2021.

PSU figures include more information in addition to current IRS figures.

[uncommon.name]

Originally Posted by sopdx

From reading the article, it states that the Census Bureau uses information from the IRS and that the information is outdated - from 2021.

PSU figures include more information in addition to current IRS figures.

Yea, PSU's research actually show a small increase in population and even drill it down by county. Here is an article on that from OPB...