Sim-Southwest: Our Visionary Concepts Thread

[combusean]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

did you arbitrarily come up with those numbers?

I counted the miles on google maps and multiplied them by rough figures for known modes: $5 million/mile for commuter rail, $90 million for light rail, $40 million for streetcar. I padded and cut depending on the route--less for freeway, $250 million a mile for a cut and cover subway from 44th St to 68th St to get Arcadia NIMBY's in favor of it, something like $60 million for freeway routes.

The bus figures are from valley metro's website. They have 1,000 buses and a $200 million operating cost. The $600,000 figure was probably on the low end for a bus, but I figured we were getting a lot of them.

[plinko]

^So that would cover the initial capital, but what about operating costs? You're certainly not going to get there on fare recovery alone.

I'm also curious about right-of-way costs (property acquisition).

[combusean]

I hadn't thought about operating costs much. Some of this would replace a lot of the existing bus network, so there's that to contend with.

I expect the existing farebox recovery ratios to double from barely over a quarter to on the order of 50%. I covered the bus operating cost for the most part in this to guarantee a source of funding and the recovery ratios will carry over to light rail and commuter rail. Light rail operating funding as I didn't really realize is a bit ad hoc--Phoenix put off construction of the Northwest Extension because of concerns of how to operate it. I surmise that if they didn't decide to go it alone without federal study operating it wouldn't be a problem. Federal funding accounts for as much as half of the cost of the whole project.

The operating cost of the existing line is $184 million for 20 miles over 5 years or $1.84 million a mile a year. So, basically with the farebox recovery ratio $150 million for light rail across the county a year. I *think* that's doable from the respective cities' general fund (or else they get a fence around their stop). I bet ADOT would kick in operating costs for commuter rail if it was there, probably by specific state appropriation.

A system that would guesstimatedly put about half the county's population within 3 miles of rail in the first phase and boost that to 90% when it's done with a Baseline Rd connection would warrant an overall boost in the importance of transit in the overall cities' budgets. It would enough ancillary benefits from turning around borderline ghetto and up strip malls across the Valley into the sort of things that were built along Apache Blvd and Washington St. Most of the manufacturing would be done here as a condition of approval for such a massive commitment of vehicles (750) from a single supplier, ergo the money would be spent in the county over and over again.

The wide arterial network leads to relatively easy ROW acquisition presuming the cities will be happy with 2 lanes in either direction.

[Tempe_Duck]

Originally Posted by combusean

My dream transit network:

For a 25 year 1/4 cent sales tax increase across Maricopa County, we get 150 miles of light rail, 265 miles of commuter rail to Tucson, 65 miles of streetcars, and double the existing bus network. I budgeted $300 million for the South Central Avenue light rail bridge Hoover

Transit Infrastructure	Phase I					Phase II

Light Rail:
South Central Avenue 	Broadway	3+bridge   $600,000,000	South Mountain	4mi	  $350,000,000
Rural/Chandler Blvd	Chandler Mall	9.5	   $950,000,000	
			ChndMall/MGW 	13	 $1,100,000,000
Ahwatukee							19th Ave/Rural	10	  $900,000,000
East Mesa		Mesa GW/Sup Str	6	   $540,000,000		
			Mesa Dr/SupSpr	8	   $750,000,000			
Scottsdale		Scottsdale CC 	9.5	   $850,000,000	S/B to SCC v101 6s/5f	  $900,000,000		
Cactus Cross Connect						PVM to Sdale	3	  $250,000,000
Blue Line		Tatum and Mayo	5	   $450,000,000	
			Sdale/Bell 	5	   $450,000,000 		
Bell Road		19th to Tatum	7	   $650,000,000	Peoria to 19th	12	$1,000,000,000	
Glendale Avenue		WestGate/DT 	5	   $450,000,000	DT to 19th	4mi+b	  $450,000,000
Camelback 		Central to 44th	5	   $450,000,000	CamelSub/Sdale	3.5 C&C	  $850,000,000 					
19th Ave 		DV Airport    	11+br	 $1,050,000,000	
101 North		Glendale   	8 on FW	   $600,000,000	Glndl Air/Peor 	7mi	  $600,000,000	
					95	 $8,890,000,000			54.5	$5,300,000,000
Commuter Rail:			
BNSF - Grand 		Glendale 	9.5	    $48,000,000	Sun City	16	   $80,000,000 
UP East			to Phx Mesa GW 	32	   $160,000,000	
			PMG/QC/F/C/Tuc 	115	   $600,000,000		 
UP West			to Avondale 	16	    $80,000,000	Buckeye 	14	   $70,000,000
UP Kyrene		to Maricopa 	17+18 	   $260,000,000	Casa G/Mainline	25  	  $125,000,000	 
					207.5	 $1,148,000,000			55	  $275,000,000
Streetcars:
Grand/19th Streetcar	State Capitol 	3.5	   $100,000,000 Central/Olympic	3.5m+b	  $150,000,000	
59th Ave		UPRR/Glendale	6.5	   $240,000,000	G to 43rd/Bell	9	  $360,000,000	
Thomas Rd		DsrtSky/Central	10.5	   $420,000,000	Central/Sdale	8.5	  $340,000,000
East Valley		CMA/Gilb/Main	14.5	   $580,000,000	Falc Field/Main	6.5	  $260,000,000	
					35	 $1,340,000,000			28	$1,110,000,000
Doubling the bus:	

(200k * 1000 * 12) + (600,000 * 1000)		 $3,000,000,000 			$3,000,000,000
OC	buses	year	a bus	buses				       
						$14,378,000,000				$9,685,000,000

						Twenty four billion dollars over 24 years
						One half cent generates 18 billion over 20 years
							or maybe 22 billion over 24 years
						Federal funds can kick in as much as 1/2 cost
						Pinal and Pima County will contribute to CR
						It can be done with as low as 1/4c sales tax increase

Would it be possible for you to put this on a google map so we can visualize it? At least the rail portions?

[combusean]

Originally Posted by Tempe_Duck

Would it be possible for you to put this on a google map so we can visualize it? At least the rail portions?

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en...da2be8c109b187

I got greedy and started putting stuff everywhere with the exception of commuter rail...the cost of a basic system even to Tucson kind of pales in comparison to the scope of the local mass transit system

[Leo the Dog]

Imagine Phx with that large of a rail network! I'd be happy if the NW extension made it all the way to the 101 along 19th ave and the NE extension all the way to Desert Ridge along the 51/Tatum. Basically a hub and spoke system would be awesome bringing people in from all corners of the valley to a central location with an urban ring connected them all.

[Tempe_Duck]

Originally Posted by combusean

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en...da2be8c109b187

I got greedy and started putting stuff everywhere with the exception of commuter rail...the cost of a basic system even to Tucson kind of pales in comparison to the scope of the local mass transit system

Sweet, that looks beautiful. What is your construction time frame?

[Vicelord John]

Sean, somewhat similar to what I did about a year ago.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...a03ed264ee8b05

[combusean]

Originally Posted by Tempe_Duck

Sweet, that looks beautiful. What is your construction time frame?

It would probably be a 30 year project that could get going in 2012 if voters approved it. With everyone barely a 7 minute bike ride from rail Phoenix would be twice as green and three times as dense. Up to two million cars could be taken off the road.

[HooverDam]

Not to be too nit picky but why did you have that streetcar line running North along 3rd St for a while and then over to 7th? It seems like it would get more use going along 7th the whole way.

You don't show anything streetcar wise on Lower Grand and there's already talks of that happening using historic (not modern) streetcar, so I think that should be noted. Central and VB to 7th Ave/Grand, up Grand to McDowell at least. Then maybe in a 2nd phase up 19th Ave, East on Encanto Blvd, North on 15th Ave to Thomas and then back over to Central to hook up w/ LRT.

Id also like to see a 24th St streetcar line. Going from maybe Lincoln and 24th (but at least Camelback and 24th) south to Buckeye and 24th, thus connecting it to the Sky Train (and also giving people the West entrance via transit theyve wanted to Sky Harbor).

Also for you bridge on S. Central Ave were you thinking just a LRT bridge like what goes over Tempe Town Lake? Or did you mean an entirely new bridge for LRT, cars and pedestrians? Either way, what bridges did you use for cost comparison, Id be interested to look at them.

Finally, totally unrelated but as I hinted at in my Yuma Pictures thread damn that town would make a good college town. Theyv'e got a good amount of open land in their downtown, see my map for where I'd put it here. A Southern Arizona University could serve as a reliever school taking pressure off ASU and UA to become too gigantic. It doesn't need to have much of a research focus and could be more like the Cal State schools of course. It would be ideally situated to be strong in areas like Hotel/Restaurant Management (that town is full of hotels, motels and casinos), agriculture, sustainability (its even more sun soaked than Phx) and as a Senior Military College. Currently the furthest west SMC is in College Station, TX which isn't quite far from most people in the West. Using Yumas proximity to the Barry Goldwater Air Force Range and the MCAS Yuma it would make an ideal university to have strong ties with the military, especially with Yumas long history as a military outpost.

[combusean]

Originally Posted by HooverDam

Not to be too nit picky but why did you have that streetcar line running North along 3rd St for a while and then over to 7th? It seems like it would get more use going along 7th the whole way.

I kind of like it being on 3rd st but you're probably right about 7th.

You don't show anything streetcar wise on Lower Grand and there's already talks of that happening using historic (not modern) streetcar, so I think that should be noted. Central and VB to 7th Ave/Grand, up Grand to McDowell at least. Then maybe in a 2nd phase up 19th Ave, East on Encanto Blvd, North on 15th Ave to Thomas and then back over to Central to hook up w/ LRT.

I wanted to route it back down 19th to connect with the future Olympic village but couldn't find a good route with the LRT tracks already there. This route seems better in my book, but a future spur wouldn't be much (the figure is padded at this point)

Id also like to see a 24th St streetcar line. Going from maybe Lincoln and 24th (but at least Camelback and 24th) south to Buckeye and 24th, thus connecting it to the Sky Train (and also giving people the West entrance via transit theyve wanted to Sky Harbor).

Done.

Also for you bridge on S. Central Ave were you thinking just a LRT bridge like what goes over Tempe Town Lake? Or did you mean an entirely new bridge for LRT, cars and pedestrians? Either way, what bridges did you use for cost comparison, Id be interested to look at them.

I'm sure it's in the budget.

Finally, totally unrelated but as I hinted at in my Yuma Pictures thread damn that town would make a good college town. Theyv'e got a good amount of open land in their downtown, see my map for where I'd put it here. A Southern Arizona University could serve as a reliever school taking pressure off ASU and UA to become too gigantic. It doesn't need to have much of a research focus and could be more like the Cal State schools of course. It would be ideally situated to be strong in areas like Hotel/Restaurant Management (that town is full of hotels, motels and casinos), agriculture, sustainability (its even more sun soaked than Phx) and as a Senior Military College. Currently the furthest west SMC is in College Station, TX which isn't quite far from most people in the West. Using Yumas proximity to the Barry Goldwater Air Force Range and the MCAS Yuma it would make an ideal university to have strong ties with the military, especially with Yumas long history as a military outpost.

I really like your ideas with Yuma. Before I was kind of meh on the subject but it's really begging for such an institution. It'd get a lot of people from Southern California as well who would otherwise go to ASU.

[HooverDam]

Originally Posted by combusean

I really like your ideas with Yuma. Before I was kind of meh on the subject but it's really begging for such an institution. It'd get a lot of people from Southern California as well who would otherwise go to ASU.

I agree it would get a lot of people from the Imperial Valley and the Inland Empire (ASU already pulls heavily from those areas as well). I wonder if it would be possible to get funding from Imperial County, CA as well and have people from that county pay an in state tuition rate. Im not sure if anything like that has been done anywhere else or how complicated it would be, but since the school is right on a border it would kinda make sense.

Let ASU cut off the bottom 10K of its currently accepted applicants and they can go to Yuma instead, that would be nice.

EDIT: VVV Well we used to send the criminals there, same deal

[Vicelord John]

Send the idiots to yuma. Lol.

[Leo the Dog]

I think Yuma would be a terrible place to go to college. ASU kids are bored in DT Phx...what the hell would they do in Yuma? Go get drunk and purchase meds in Mexico for entertainment?

[Vicelord John]

They could go cougar hunting in snowbird season...

[HooverDam]

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

I think Yuma would be a terrible place to go to college. ASU kids are bored in DT Phx...what the hell would they do in Yuma? Go get drunk and purchase meds in Mexico for entertainment?

Ride around the sand dunes, hang out around the Colorado river, go dancing, go to bars, whatever. Yuma is bigger population wise than Flagstaff and lots of kids love going up there for school and kids all over the country go to college in small college towns. After a few years of having a college in Yuma the town would change and have a lot more businesses open that cater to college kids.

[Leo the Dog]

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35780958/

What Do You Do With Detroit? Bulldoze It
Published: Tuesday, 9 Mar 2010 | 1:35 PM ET Text Size
By: Cindy Perman
Writer
Have you ever wondered what will become of Detroit?

The auto industry built Detroit and now, with for-sale signs and foreclosures piling up, it may tear it down.

Will the auto industry bounce back in enough time to save the real-estate market? Will artists flock to the cheap real estate and colonize the city? Or, will it go the way of that luxury condo building in downtown Orlando that's overwhelmed by vultures?

Well, Detroit’s mayor has an idea: Bulldoze it.

Mayor Dave Bing is apparently working on a radical plan that would bulldoze a quarter of the city — some of the most desolate areas — and return it to farmland, the way it was before the automobile. Any residents still there would be relocated to stronger neighborhoods.

This isn't a new idea — Detroit has been kicking it around since the 1990s, and some people suggest dozens of U.S. cities hard-hit by the recession may have to be bulldozed.

One of those people is Dan Kildee, treasurer of Genesee County, which includes Flint, Michigan.

Kildee told London's Telegraph that we need to get over the American mindset that "big is good."

“The obsession with growth is sadly a very American thing. Across the US, there’s an assumption that all development is good, that if communities are growing they are successful. If they’re shrinking, they’re failing,” he said.

When this talk of bulldozing cities resurfaced last summer, some people said there was no evidence that the government had such plans in the works.

But with Detroit taking the idea seriously, one professor says it may be time that we dared to dream — in a way we've never dared before.

“Things that were unthinkable are now becoming thinkable,” James W. Hughes, dean of the School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, told the AP. “There is now a realization that past glories are never going to be recaptured. Some people probably don’t accept that but that is the reality,” he said.

Welcome to the future. Why does it look so much like 1910 instead of 2010?

I wonder if the city of Phx, which has been ravaged by the recession, would clear out entire blighted parts of the city too.

[Vicelord John]

that's the weirdest idea I've ever heard. Although, it wouldn't be that hard to bulldoze parts of Detroit. I've been up and down Woodward and it's side streets north of downtown a hundred times. It used to make me shudder how many empty parcels there already are in the neighborhoods.

[Vicelord John]

I am working on a google map that shows all the different neighborhoods in Phoenix. Does anyone want to help collaborate on it and fine tune it? I'm trying to draw the most logical neighborhoods with the most logical names, not what the city designates. Kind of a "visionairy" thing if you will of what we would do if we were in chage. In my plan, each individual neighborhood would have a commerical "center" kind of concept. Think Hillcrest in SD or Dundee in Omaha if you will.

Anyone?

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by Vicelord John

that's the weirdest idea I've ever heard. Although, it wouldn't be that hard to bulldoze parts of Detroit. I've been up and down Woodward and it's side streets north of downtown a hundred times. It used to make me shudder how many empty parcels there already are in the neighborhoods.

I'm not promoting the idea, but it wouldn't be hard to bulldoze many Phoenix 'hoods surrounding DT too and start over. Just look at google maps, in the areas south of DT (Grant St to 17 frwy), garfield, durango etc...its already a checker board of existing and vacant lots. Many of the existing properties could probably be condemned. These areas continue to lose structures year after year and I'll bet they are significantly less dense compared to their prime decades ago, before urban sprawl brought about the end to these areas.