Marty's FINAL PROJECTIONS
Map of Results:
Avalon
Prediction: Likely Liberal Hold
LIB: 48%
CON: 34%
NDP: 15%
PPC: 3%
Analysis: This could end up being super close, sort of what I thought would happen in 2019, or it could be another blowout. Once upon a time Avalon was a theoretical “good” Conservative district, though in reality it may have been a Fabian Manning district. This is a tough seat for the CPC to target considering its current boundaries include CBS and Paradise, two urban/suburban population centres with shifting demographics. That being said, there are rural parts of the district which could shift blue similar to its older voting patterns.
In 2019 the Greens performed relatively well in Avalon, thanks to star candidate Greg Malone. There’s no Green candidate this time around, and those votes need to go somewhere. The NDP would be the most logical choice, however the NDP are running a parachute candidate which I suspect will hurt them this election.
Basically, I have decided to do the opposite of 2019 and go with the blowout Liberal win here. I think votes are going to shift around a lot here. Green vote may get passed on to the NDP, but I think the NDP are going to bleed to the Liberals, and the Liberals will bleed a bit more to the Conservatives. The CPC could overperform here, Chapman has run a good campaign. However, I think Ken McDonald will out for another win.
Social media discussion: Growth-wise, it was very steady as it goes for the Conservative candidate, who after starting off hot cooled off to a slower and steadier pace of page growth. Ken McDonald, like many incumbents, didn’t really see any notable page growth. However, interestingly enough, the sentiment on each of their pages tells an interesting story. The overall mood of the Conservative candidate: positive, hopeful, enthusiasm, based off user comments and candidate posts. On the other hand, there’s a lot of negative comments and anger being thrown towards Ken McDonald on his page. Where there’s smoke there could be fire, but I think the urban population of this district will be the ones dictating the outcome.
Bonavista – Burin – Trinity
Prediction: Toss-up Conservative GAIN
CON: 43%
LIB: 43%
NDP: 12%
PPC: 2%
Analysis: In 2019 I correctly predicted the Conservative upsurge in support in this district, and it was my bold prediction that it would flip. My actual prediction wasn’t a flip, but a close race, which is exactly the result we got. This time around I’ll dare to be crazy and predict the CON’s picking up their first seat in Newfoundland since 2011. Liberal incumbent doesn’t appear to be getting much love this election, and Sharon Vokey has once again run, in my opinion, the best ground campaign in the province. If she can build on what she started in 2019 she has a great chance at taking this seat. The only thing working against her is the pandemic; will residents of this district be voting to voice their opinion on the Federal Government’s handling of the pandemic, or will they be focused on local candidates? If it’s the former then the Liberals will win this race easily, if it’s the later then this one may come down to the final ballot box. It’s absolutely worth noting that two days before election day the Liberals brought in Seamus O’Regan AND Chrystia Freeland to knock on doors with Rogers; they probably know they’re in trouble. If the Liberals want to win a majority they can’t lose seats like this, so I understand why they’re trying hard to keep this one red.
Social media discussion: Conservative candidate Sharon Vokey will certainly be this year’s winner of the best social media performance; she has consistently delivered strong page growth from week to week, she posts multiple times daily while on the road, and comments on her page are almost universally positive. It would also appear that a lot of these comments are actually from people who live in the district too. Liberal incumbent Churence Rogers does deserve some respect though, his own Facebook page has grown by a decent size for an incumbent, and will likely finish as the best Liberal social media platform, even beating out Joanne Thompson, a non-incumbent in St. John’s East! However, there is something to note about Rogers’s social media, and that’s the sentiment of users on there……it’s uh….not good. People are angry at him, a lot of them. I think out of all candidates, minus Seamus O’Regan (who’s national popularity may skew his negative posts), Rogers may have the worst overall sentiment out of everyone.
Coast of Bays – Central – Notre Dame
Prediction: Likely Liberal Hold
LIB: 54%
CON: 37%
NDP: 9%
Analysis: By all accounts, Scott Simms seems to be the most well-liked Liberal MP in the province, and it’s very hard to bet against him here. 2019 represented the lowest vote share Simms has received since he won his seat in 2004, though 2019 saw stiff competition from a strong NDP candidate, a Green candidate who performed surprisingly well, and a competent Conservative candidate who managed to take back the CPC base in the district (and some more). However, this election is very different: there is no Green candidate, and the NDP candidate is a parachute who hasn’t campaigned in the district at all. While I suspect the Conservatives continue to improve their fortunes here, and by all accounts they have an excellent candidate, Green and NDP voters flocking to the Liberals will make this an easy win for Simms.
Social media discussion: This race didn’t yield anything too exciting regarding social media. Conservative Clifford Small started off HOT out of the gate with explosive page growth over the first 2 weeks of the campaign, but has really cooled off for the final three. Not much happening for Scott Simms, which doesn’t surprise me; he’s the longest-tenured MP from NL, if you haven’t followed him yet you’re likely not going to. Sentiment on the pages is pretty neutral too, if not completely missing any sentiment at all. Not many comments on much of anything that gets posted by either candidate, and what comments that do get posted are pretty unremarkable. No outpouring of support, but also no angry comments.
Labrador
Prediction: Lean Liberal Hold
LIB: 39%
CON: 34%
NDP: 26%
PPC: 1%
Analysis: Due to its low population and extreme dependence on local candidates, Labrador is notoriously difficult to predict. Yvonne Jones has to be the favourite here based on incumbency, but margins can be so tight in a district like this that anything can happen. Look at Peter Penashue and Lela Evans for examples of unpredictable results that came out of left field. Yvonne Jones did receive the lowest vote share percent of any Liberal incumbent in 2019, so that’s certainly something to watch. She’ll easily win the majority of the votes on the southern shore of Labrador, but she’ll need to win the rest of the district as well if she wants to feel more comfortable about her chances. The Conservatives could have stolen this one in 2019 and are running a good local candidate this election too. And you can’t discount the NDP who always do fairly well here. There are roads to victory for each of the three major parties here, but I’ll give Yvonne Jones the inside lane until I’m proven wrong.
Social Media discussion: In 2019, based on Jones’ underwhelming social media page numbers, along with the Conservative candidates’ decent results, I decided to call Labrador a close race despite Yvonne Jones seemingly being a popular MHA. The final results backed that as well, with Jones receiving the lowest vote total of any NL Liberal MHA. Here in 2021 we’re seeing much the same again for Jones, with her challengers showing much stronger social media influence. Hence, I’m making the call once again on a tight race.
Long Range Mountains
Prediction: Lean Liberal hold
LIB: 40%
CON: 35%
NDP: 22%
PPC: 3%
Analysis: Let’s get crazy for a minute here. I know what you’re probably thinking right now, “Marty, what are you smoking?” Hear me out: I think there are multiple things at play here which are a disadvantage to the Liberals, despite it being a seemingly safe seat. Number 1: The NDP are running a strong campaign compared to 2019, and there is a significant pocket of NDP support in the Corner Brook area that could easily siphon some votes from the Liberals. Number 2: Erin O’Toole took the time to make a campaign stop in the district. Not sure what their internals were telling them, but I can assure you that party leaders do NOT waste days on the campaign trail. Furthermore, there are rumblings on the ground that Gudie may be in trouble, and there are apparently a lot of Conservative lawn signs scattered over the district. If the CONs can get 28% of the vote share by running a parachute candidate who never campaigned at all, what can they get when they run a strong candidate in Anstey? I think these two factors end up making this race a lot closer than anyone would expect, and while I can’t outright make any outlandish predictions here of the Liberals losing this may very well feel like a loss to them once the dust settles.
Social media discussion: I thought Carol Anstey was going to give me trouble during this analysis, with an explosion of page growth from people not in the district or province, but thankfully that didn’t end up being the case. Fairly boring one here too, Anstey had decent numbers and a lot of positivity, Gudie performed poorly like she did in 2019, though page sentiment for her is mostly neutral (there are a couple of anti-Liberal trolls who post everywhere, but it’s limited to the same couple of users). Props for the NDP coming in late but hot with a decent social media campaign, though they have really done a good job on Twitter, which is not a platform which I consider for the most part in this analysis.
St. John’s East
Prediction: Likely Liberal GAIN
LIB: 43%
NDP: 34%
CON: 20%
PPC: 3%
Prediction: I think only the hardline NDP supporters in the country actually think the NDP can keep this seat. Let’s be honest, this was Jack Harris’s seat, not the NDPs. Considering the margins back in 2019 (~14%) the NDP need to hold on to a large number of those Jack voters, which is going to be very tough to do. Joanne Thompson is the better candidate and has much more charisma than Mary Shortall. Federal Liberal party support in St. John’s has grown considerably in the last 15 years, and I suspect that this district and St. John’s South will begin mirroring each other here and in the future.
Social media discussion: I was really hoping for something here. A race with no incumbent should be exciting! In an urban district none the less. Instead, we got a boring race where no one really stood out, unless we want to count the PPC running up their numbers in garage time. Edge does go to the NDP here, Shortall did outperform Thompson in overall growth. However, unlike many other races it wasn’t a complete blowout, which makes it hard to draw any conclusions regarding momentum in this battle.
St. John’s South – Mount Pearl
Prediction: Safe Liberal hold
LIB: 49%
NDP: 29%
CON: 20%
PPC: 2%
Prediction: Seamus O’Regan was the only Liberal in 2019 to gain a majority of the vote share, with over 50% of the vote. There’s no doubt that O’Regan is popular with his constituents, despite maybe not being the most popular politician elsewhere in the country. I can’t realistically see much of a change from 2019, in fact I suspect that we’re about to enter a relatively boring stretch of politics in St. John’s where results don’t really change much from year to year. O’Regan is the safest Liberal MP, in my opinion. NDP and CPC will perform around the same as last time.
Social media discussion: CPC Steve Hodder has good overall numbers, but much like in 2019 I don’t expect this to have much impact in the St. John’s ridings. NDP’s Ray Critch didn’t really have good enough results for me to think that momentum could push him closer to the Liberals than they were in the last election. O’Regan had the second best Liberal performance, further solidifying my opinion on this race.
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Crosbie wasn't super well-liked at the end of his tenure, though the district he was canvasing with Vokey was won by the PCs so maybe they like him there a lot more than if he were knocking on doors in more Liberal areas of the district.
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