Record Wave of Americans Fled Big Cities for Small Ones in 2023

[DCReid]

Score a victory for Mayberry. America’s small towns, like the iconic setting of television’s The Andy Griffith Show from the 1960s, saw more in-migration in 2023 than larger areas for the first time in decades...

An estimated 291,400 people last year migrated from other areas into America’s small towns and rural areas, which Lombard defines as metropolitan areas with 250,000 people or fewer.

That number exceeded net migration into larger areas for the first time since at least the 1970s,...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recor...192243203.html

[eschaton]

I absolutely do not believe the census. I think the ACS estimates are full of garbage right now.

COVID-era migration has ended, and urban crime is dropping rapidly. There's absolutely no reason why big cities should be seeing an outflux of people right now.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I absolutely do not believe the census. I think the ACS estimates are full of garbage right now.

COVID-era migration has ended, and urban crime is dropping rapidly. There's absolutely no reason why big cities should be seeing an outflux of people right now.

perceptions do not care about reality. If you ask ~50% of americans about crime in the cities, they'll say its never been worse and society is collapsing. Nothing we can do about that unfortunately. Haters gonna hate, leavers gonna leave.

Regardless, for the most part, the people leaving cities are retiring boomers and working class millennials who want to start families in cheaper places. We are in the full-fledged boomer retirement wave at this point so we should expect several hundred thousand boomers to be moving to smaller places every year for the next 5 years

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

perceptions do not care about reality. If you ask ~50% of americans about crime in the cities, they'll say its never been worse and society is collapsing. Nothing we can do about that unfortunately. Haters gonna hate, leavers gonna leave.

Regardless, for the most part, the people leaving cities are retiring boomers and working class millennials who want to start families in cheaper places. We are in the full-fledged boomer retirement wave at this point so we should expect several hundred thousand boomers to be moving to smaller places every year for the next 5 years

Why would a boomer want to live in the middle of nowhere?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Why would a boomer want to live in the middle of nowhere?

Smaller places =/= nowhere. Living in a big city doesn't just hit the same way as you get older.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

Living in a big city doesn't just hit the same way as you get older.

That's sounds like an individual thing.

My parents are approaching 80 and they live in Chicago

All 4 of my grandparents died in Chicago.

All 8 of my great grandparents died in Chicago.

And so forth.....


This notion of moving away from your family and friends once you are no longer tied to a job is a profoundly foreign one to me.

I doubt I will ever grasp it.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by JManc

Smaller places =/= nowhere. Living in a big city doesn't just hit the same way as you get older.

if the US was serious about enforcing driving competence among older people...

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by JManc

Smaller places =/= nowhere. Living in a big city doesn't just hit the same way as you get older.

As some one who is suddenly dealing with a very sick parent for the first time in my life, and ushering them to 4-6 doctor's appointments a week to figure out a cancer treatment plan, I can't imagine not living in a major city with access to a robust healthcare system.

I'd argue having access to big city amenities is more important as an elderly person than it is at any point in one's life. On top of that, your mobility decreases as you get older. Imagine being in the last decade of your life in a place where you're stuck in a house all alone because you need a car to get everywhere and you can no longer drive.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by JManc

Smaller places =/= nowhere. Living in a big city doesn't just hit the same way as you get older.

But this article isn't about "living in a big city". It claims that people are fleeing metros. So fleeing McMansions for small town living. Fleeing Houston for Bumkisville, TX.

You'd think boomers would want medical care. Small towns don't have comprehensive healthcare.

Also, it sure doesn't seem to be true where my parents have a cottage. RE values haven't changed much since the 1990's. Even the Dollar General closed.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

perceptions do not care about reality. If you ask ~50% of americans about crime in the cities, they'll say its never been worse and society is collapsing. Nothing we can do about that unfortunately. Haters gonna hate, leavers gonna leave.

Regardless, for the most part, the people leaving cities are retiring boomers and working class millennials who want to start families in cheaper places. We are in the full-fledged boomer retirement wave at this point so we should expect several hundred thousand boomers to be moving to smaller places every year for the next 5 years

If we were seeing a record outflux from urban cores, then real estate prices would be collapsing in metro areas.

We aren't seeing that at all.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by eschaton

If we were seeing a record outflux from urban cores, then real estate prices would be collapsing in metro areas.

We aren't seeing that at all.

Thats not necessarily true at all. First of all, private equity firms are buying up everything, which is keeping prices high.

Secondly, a 3-bedroom house which in the 90's had two parents and 3 kids, with a monthly mortgage of $2000 (adjusted for inflation into 2024 dollars) will now house 3 individual roommates, each of whom is paying a landlord, say, $900/month.

Population down, price up.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

perceptions do not care about reality. If you ask ~50% of americans about crime in the cities, they'll say its never been worse and society is collapsing.

I don't think people that actually live in big cities share this perception. The opinions of Americans that don't live in big cities doesn't really matter to this point, since they wouldn't be the group driving population losses.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't think people that actually live in big cities share this perception. The opinions of Americans that don't live in big cities doesn't really matter to this point, since they wouldn't be the group driving population losses.

What???

Every big city ive lived in (St. Louis, Denver, Boston, Seattle) has tons of people in the city limits and inner-ring suburbs, nevermind the bona fide suburbs, who are afraid to go downtown or say its gotten more dangerous, dont go there as often anymore, etc. I would even say this is a majority opinion among people over 40 in St. Louis. i even know one 20-something coworker here in Seattle who refuses to go downtown (we arent friends lol).

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I have *personally* encountered people afraid of downtown in the following cities:
STL
Chicago
Denver
Boston
SF
Kansas City
Seattle
Nashville
Houston
Atlanta
Cincinatti

The media, particularly the TV news, needs to be held responsible for this derangement. It should be a lot more common for cities to sue for libel. The city of Chicago ought to have sued the f*** out of fox news YEARS ago, for example.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I've never met these people. I know plenty of people who think crazy things, but never heard of someone who willingly chooses an urban environment and simultaneously believes the craziest alt right conspiracies about urban living.

No doubt they exist, but again, irrelevant to the thread, which is about metropolitan migration, not urban migration. This is about people in Bellevue supposedly moving to Idaho or Montana, not people in downtown Seattle moving to Bellevue.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

What???

Every big city ive lived in (St. Louis, Denver, Boston, Seattle) has tons of people in the city limits and inner-ring suburbs, nevermind the bona fide suburbs, who are afraid to go downtown or say its gotten more dangerous, dont go there as often anymore, etc. I would even say this is a majority opinion among people over 40 in St. Louis. i even know one 20-something coworker here in Seattle who refuses to go downtown (we arent friends lol).

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I have *personally* encountered people afraid of downtown in the following cities:
STL
Chicago
Denver
Boston
SF
Kansas City
Seattle
Nashville
Houston
Atlanta
Cincinatti

The media, particularly the TV news, needs to be held responsible for this derangement. It should be a lot more common for cities to sue for libel. The city of Chicago ought to have sued the f*** out of fox news YEARS ago, for example.

That's interesting. I can't say that I've met too many people that are terrified of the city they live in. I've met plenty of people that are terrified of cities that they don't live in.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

What???

Every big city ive lived in (St. Louis, Denver, Boston, Seattle) has tons of people in the city limits and inner-ring suburbs, nevermind the bona fide suburbs, who are afraid to go downtown or say its gotten more dangerous, dont go there as often anymore, etc. I would even say this is a majority opinion among people over 40 in St. Louis. i even know one 20-something coworker here in Seattle who refuses to go downtown (we arent friends lol).

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I have *personally* encountered people afraid of downtown in the following cities:
STL
Chicago
Denver
Boston
SF
Kansas City
Seattle
Nashville
Houston
Atlanta
Cincinatti

The media, particularly the TV news, needs to be held responsible for this derangement. It should be a lot more common for cities to sue for libel. The city of Chicago ought to have sued the f*** out of fox news YEARS ago, for example.

There's some truth to the rumors; San Francisco is straight up Dawn of the Dead along Market Street and right around the Tenderloin and Civic Center areas...but not necessarily dangerous. I've walked up and down that area many times at night with no worries but it's pretty post apocalyptic. Rest of SF is decent and worth the visit and not at all how Fox portrays it. Oakland is worse anyway but gets nicer as you approach Berkeley.

My wife works in DT Houston and it's more or less the same, nasty but not necessarily dangerous. It's just that there are no tourists or sizable local residential population to offset the visible homelessness and vagrancy wandering around. Esp. after work hours and/ or when there are no games or conventions.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I absolutely do not believe the census. I think the ACS estimates are full of garbage right now.

COVID-era migration has ended, and urban crime is dropping rapidly. There's absolutely no reason why big cities should be seeing an outflux of people right now.

Its also a dumb headline. 291,000 isnt alot for one and doesnt mean they all came from cities either.

[Comrade]

The only thing I can think that would drive this would be cost of living and cheaper homes in Wichita, Kansas than Denver, Colorado.

[Tuckerman]

This is mostly nonsense to interpret. The reality is that demographics are and always have been dynamic. There is a solid literature analyzing "movers and stayers", e.g the sociologist James Coleman at Hopkins in the 60s and 70s. There are excellent statistical analyses of how many people stay in an area in which they were born and how many are so-called "outsiders." Obviously a "newer" fast growing city like Atlanta is dominated by movers (there are nearly 4,000,000 more people here than in 1990!). Nonetheless one still discovers Atlanta families that have been here for decades and would not live anywhere else. It is also quite apparent from current and recent data that smaller towns (<10,000 pop.) across the US (of course there are exceptions) are declining in population unless they are near a major MSA and in transition. In addition, it is unlikely that the small declines in MSA populations among some big cities (notably, Chicago, NY, LA, SF etc.) indicates that they are dying or declining; rather, they are more likely to have stabilized at a functional size.

[Crawford]

The Census has to be getting even worse with the annual estimates this decade. It doesn't make sense.

NYC has, by far, the lowest vacancy rate in recorded history. It also has growing school enrollment, after years of declines. I was just in Boston, and the housing crisis is epic. There's nothing. DC is really bad. The big West Coast metros are even worse.

Census even shows Miami area with population declines. Do people really believe that? The inflation in South Florida, not just with housing, is epic. How is that possible in conjunction with emptying population?

I guess you could have plummeting household sizes, in conjunction with soaring rents and miniscule vacancy, but that would be really odd. Housing unaffordability leads to doubling-up, not singles taking on more housing.