Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician
The case I'm making takes into account the typical 2-3 year timeline of a large project, coupled with fewer construction starts (hence less supply being added to the market) and the almost certainty that the doldrums of the Covid epidemic will be long over by the time that the project is completed.
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I would agree with you if it weren't for the fact you're neglecting one important factor.
You're looking at it as if demand was always stable/linear and proportional to population/economy and unaffected by changes in taste, culture, habits, etc. So your conclusion is that since no one is going to build something like a new hotel these days, by the time we're back to normal in 2021, the hotel "supply" will be the same as it was back in 2019, therefore, there should be some unmet demand at that moment, ripe for the picking by someone who had the foresight to plan for it.
It would be valid, if demand behaved like that. But it doesn't. If we start to realize that there's a bunch of things that can be done remotely and that it works nearly as well to do it like that, then there will be a permanent reduction in hotel demand, and in things like conventions, etc.
I personally have been doing remote management and remote meetings a LOT more, and I've also been traveling a lot less these past few years (feels like I can have something acceptably close to these experiences nowadays without having to be there in person).
If I'm representative, that doesn't augur well for airlines, hotels, etc.