Quote:
Originally Posted by milomilo
Yip. If all that costs $600M, or double that even, I'll eat my hat.
Was there a timeframe given for that CIB study? Until that's out, this topic of conversation won't have much to talk about.
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No timeline. Since it is a scope (airport or no), engineering and operations, option analysis, and negotiation with CPR (a given), I'd bet at least 18 months. Then if results are positive, there would be an environmental assessment, and conclusion of duty to consult - another 12 months.
On the plus side, the feds are also doing a long term plan for transportation in Banff National Park, which will hopefully produce some guidance for navigating the tradeoffs between different modes versus nature which has stymied work around gondolas around the Banff townsite/immediate environs itself.
If everything works out positively, I could see an opening in 2026, 2027, coinciding roughly with the opening of Calgary's new convention centre. I think the potential for creating a package offering (even if for most convention goers it is an illusion) is quite compelling from an economic development perspective.
I also agree the costs are on the low side, as it used standard metrics for the cost of work needed, not super detailed work, but I remain hopeful it is within 50% or so for the Banff-Calgary segment. I have little idea what the Calgary-Calgary Airport segment would look like cost wise, but direct Calgary Airport-Banff trips certainly would have significant value, as would airport-downtown trips.
With a long lasting asset like rail being financed, and the infrastructure remaining in private hands, the numbers for the economic case can get all wonky, since you don't need to pay off the asset in 30 years. Think REM in Montreal more than Canada Line in Vancouver. Plus the line would provide significant value for the CPR, so you don't need to try to cover all the costs due to cross subsidization from freight potentially.