Quote:
Originally Posted by Beta_Magellan
If that’s the route they’re going to take, I hope Minnesota doesn’t get anything. SNCF studied Chicago-Minneapolis a while back and found it competitive with air travel and having good potential to make operating profits. However, this was due to the fact that SNCF was only concerned with connecting the largest travel markets—Chicago, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Milwaukee. This meant taking the most direct route possible, using a straight highway ROW to run between Madison and Eau Claire (they didn’t go into much detail about the Madison connection, but I’m pretty sure it would have been a suburban one to minimize travel times) and then heading straight to the Twin Cities. It’s how HSR should be planned in this country—quick and as-direct-as-possible links between major cities which can be competitive with air travel.
Even if Minneapolis-Chicago via Iowa is technically viable to build (and I’m not sure it is—we touched on this a few pages ago and someone noted that the ROW in Minnesota’s pretty curvy), I doubt it would be as viable to operate. It’s less direct, which adds travel time and capital cost, and there’s no intermediate stop on the route with the same population as Milwaukee. Furthermore, a Minneapolis-Chicago line really does need to be built to a 200+ mph standard, whereas from all appearances this looks like a 110-mph higher-speed-than-Amtrak route. 110-mph upgrades are okay for certain corridors, like Chicago-Omaha, but for a market as lucrative as Chicago-MSP you really want to built real HSR, and settling for 110-mph service now makes it harder to fund 200-mph service later (and Iowa can be just as nuts as Wisconsin, so there’s political instability no matter which route you take).
Also, it’s likely that Rochester’s been cooking ridership numbers to support its case. The comment thread on this Transport Politic post serves as a pretty good takedown of a 2009 HSR study’s numbers.
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Actually, if you look at that very same Transport Politic post, you will see that it is the "River Route", (the current Amtrak route and the route that was proposed for running through through Madison) that has *176* curves, giving it a maximum speed of 90mph regardless of upgrades. As you will see in the post, it is the Rochester route whose ROW could support future 200+ mph operation.
Additionally, his comparison between the Rochester route and the Keystone Corridor in PA isn't very good, IMO. Rochester is currently over twice the size of Harrisburg, and growing very rapidly. Also, Rochester is dominated by Mayo, which makes up nearly 1/3 of the city's employment. The vast majority of Mayo's patients come from the Twin Cities or fly in via MSP International, not to mention most of those top-class doctors don't want to spend all their time in little ol' Rochester, and many drive up to the cities pretty regularly. EDIT: I now see that Harrisburg *does* have a much larger metro population than Rochester.
I'll admit, the ridership is probably somewhat inflated because they propose a stop at MSP International, which is unlikely to be built; it will probably only stop at the SPUD in Saint Paul. With the Riverview LRT unlikely to be built within our lifetimes, that's kind of a nasty LRT ride to get to the SPUD from the airport. It's possible that a stop would be built at the airport, but I don't see it happening, not only because Ramsey County would probably be against it, but because there are no convenient railroad bridges, and building a pair of new ones (or even just one) would jack the cost up 300 million at the least.
Also, at least if running through Rochester and then Winona, the travel times are 11 minutes faster at 110 mph, and would drop even further as speed is upgraded, even though the route is 21 miles longer. And really, this is what we're talking about. Dayton was mostly looking for funding for Rochester-MSP, not all the way down to Iowa City, though he has apparently talked about it. I find it unlikely that we would really get it built all the way through before the end of Walker's term or before he wakes up.