The NHL is coming closer to Quebec City

[esquire]

I suppose in hindsight, the CFL overplayed its hand in Halifax. For many years the discussion in news articles and commissioner press conferences revolved around the need for a new 30,000 seat stadium on par with some of the ones around the league. That gradually dropped to 25,000 and then 20,000. If a bare-bones 20,000 seat stadium would have been acceptable in the 1980s, it probably would have been built by now.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by esquire

I suppose in hindsight, the CFL overplayed its hand in Halifax. For many years the discussion in news articles and commissioner press conferences revolved around the need for a new 30,000 seat stadium on par with some of the ones around the league. That gradually dropped to 25,000 and then 20,000. If a bare-bones 20,000 seat stadium would have been acceptable in the 1980s, it probably would have been built by now.

And it is strange to demand X in city #1 then move to city #2 and ask for X/4 without first suggesting or accepting X/4 in city #1. Furthermore for years the CFL has pretty much just been promoting the possible franchise in Halifax and not talking about Moncton at all.

Their website has:

https://www.cfl.ca/teams/atlantic-schooners/
https://www.cfl.ca/2019/12/10/cfl-is...-council-vote/

Obviously the CFL municipal funding stuff was shelved due to covid.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

The biggest issue outside of population in both Quebec and Halifax is annual household income. Both places are relatively poor compared to other NHL markets, with the average in both being less than $60,000 after taxes (from 2016 data, 2021 data is not out yet). Halifax is at about $59,000/yr and Quebec City is at about $52,000/yr. It is a big factor in determining whether a team is viable in a given area, and is also impacted by the exchange rate. Viability is a balance between population and incomes. Winnipeg is a small market but it was allowed in because the average household income is relatively high, at around $70,000 after taxes. The path forward for Quebec City is to either create an environment that raises household incomes significantly or get the CMA population to over 1M, at which point the NHL will start considering it more seriously. If they had incomes as high as Winnipeg, they would have a team already. Halifax is both relatively poor and small so it will not be viable as a market for a long time, especially when counting the fact that it lacks an arena. However, we will see how incomes have progressed when the Census 2021 information gets released later this summer and maybe things will look a little different.

Hamilton will almost certainly be the preferred location for an 8th Canadian team once FirstOntario gets renovated by OVG. While slightly smaller than Quebec City, the average household income after taxes is $80,000/yr. Proximity to other higher income CMAs like Kitchener ($79,000/yr), Niagara ($68,000/yr) and London ($65,000/yr) also makes it a better business case than Quebec City, which is relatively geographically isolated as a market. As much as I want to see a team in Quebec City happen, the math just doesn’t look great. The NHL is a business, first and foremost, and they are making decisions within the best interest of their business. Phoenix’s average household income after taxes in CAD is $110,000 so it should be no surprise why they continue to pursue that market.

Reposting this here:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

New census data is out today, including income data.

Median household income by city, cutoff at cities over 400,000:

• Canada - $91,000
• Ottawa -$102,000
• Oshawa -$102,000
• Calgary - $100,000
• Toronto - $97,000
• Edmonton - $96,000
• Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo - $92,000
• Hamilton - $91,000
• Vancouver - $90,000
• Winnipeg - $83,000
• Windsor - $82,000
• Halifax - $81,000
• London - $79,500
• St. Catharines - Niagara - $77,000
• Quebec - $76,500
• Montreal - $76,000
  

As far as I can tell, Halton Region remains the wealthiest area of the country with a median household income of $121,000. The wealthiest municipality in the GTA I could find, and possibly the country, is King Township with a median household income of $144,000.

[jonny24]

Is that pre or post tax?

[vanatox]

We're having a discussion on median income household in the Stat Canada thread.

This whole discussion on median household income here do not make a lot of sense, because their is a lot of variation in the country on household types. Cutural aspects as well. Who is more likely to attend a NHL game: a guy living alone making 70K per year or the husband in a family of 4 having an income of 110K? A senior couple with lots of savings but low income or a member from an immigrant family of 6 having a total income of 250k? Who can know that just based on household income?

[thenoflyzone]

Median household income isn't a very important metric, to be honest, or else Winnipeg would never have gotten a team either.

Montreal is below Quebec City ! Should the Habs move to Hamilton or Quebec City then?

Sure, it's an interesting stat, but not really relevant here. We all know any owner that brings an NHL team to pretty much any city in Canada will have a packed stadium at the beginning. After that, if the team stinks, no matter what your household income is, attendance will suffer, except if you're Toronto. Proof that Torontonians are nuts !

[trueviking]

I'd say the biggest metric for attracting a team would be corporate support.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Sure, it's an interesting stat, but not really relevant here. We all know any owner that brings an NHL team to pretty much any city in Canada will have a packed stadium at the beginning. After that, if the team stinks, no matter what your household income is, attendance will suffer, except if you're Toronto. Proof that Torontonians are nuts !

Which is as it should be IMO. Tickets are not cheap. If a team sucks, fans can't be faulted for declining to pay hundreds of dollars a game for a pair of tickets.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by vanatox

We're having a discussion on median income household in the Stat Canada thread.

This whole discussion on median household income here do not make a lot of sense, because their is a lot of variation in the country on household types. Cutural aspects as well. Who is more likely to attend a NHL game: a guy living alone making 70K per year or the husband in a family of 4 having an income of 110K? A senior couple with lots of savings but low income or a member from an immigrant family of 6 having a total income of 250k? Who can know that just based on household income?

It is incredibly relevant. Increased household income (regardless of household type) and by extension, disposable income, increases the likelihood that a given person in a given market will buy a ticket to attend a game. Sports teams are businesses first and foremost - their expenses and profit goals will partially determine the optimal range to price tickets at that will result in the highest average attendance numbers. A poor market relative to existing teams in a league will not be an attractive place for a new team to pop up, especially when much of the startup costs are the same across all markets.

Of course this isn't the only factor regarding team sustainability (such as stadium conditions, team quality, ease of access to stadium, TV attendance and marketing, etc), but these are not explicitly quantitative factors that can be incorporated into a model that determines whether or not a future market is suitable. Population and household income present a good picture of how big and how rich a potential market is.

I am crunching the numbers with the new 2020 after-tax income data in my model and things are looking a lot better now for the Canadian sports landscape. One of the major challenges before was that the Canadian and American median household income data sets were out of sync (2016 CA vs 2020 US) which made the Canadian markets seem much poorer in comparison. Both Hamilton's and Quebec City's median household incomes have risen enough from the 2016 CMHC data that an NHL team could work in both locations with little to no risk. I am cleaning it up and making it more scientific (it's gotten to the point where it's more thorough and methodological than I initially thought lol), I will post it when I am done.

I am confident that people involved with the various leagues are all looking at this income data now too. Our CMAs are getting a lot more attractive from a data standpoint despite being smaller than many American MSAs.

[q12]

Halifax vs. Quebec Game 1 Friday



Toronto vs. Florida Game 4 Wednesday

[savevp]

Breaking news: the Arizona voters have rejected the Coyotes development plan!

https://twitter.com/SO_Lorange/statu...69274108493824

[ericmacm]

56% against. All three propositions failed. Tragic for any Coyotes fans, but this is most likely the end of the line for their future in Arizona.

[Berklon]

I wouldn't count the Coyotes out yet. After all these years, they manage to find ways to prolong their stay in Arizona.

When nuclear bomb hits, the only things that will survive are cockroaches, Keith Richards and the Arizona Coyotes.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Berklon

I wouldn't count the Coyotes out yet. After all these years, they manage to find ways to prolong their stay in Arizona.

When nuclear bomb hits, the only things that will survive are cockroaches, Keith Richards and the Arizona Coyotes.

I doubt the Coyotes are moving anywhere tomorrow. But at this point I can’t see them staying more than 1-2 more seasons without the new arena.

I predict the team will end up going to Houston.

[Berklon]

Apparently the NHL met with the Utah Jazz owner last month.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Berklon

When nuclear bomb hits, the only things that will survive are cockroaches, Keith Richards and the Arizona Coyotes.

Count me in the Houston camp too. Then Salt Lake City, Kansas City, Portland, San Diego, London (UK), Mexico City and then maybe Quebec City, but only if there is no other viable alternative.

[Djeffery]

Well hell, let's get the rumour really going. How about the Ryan Reynolds group pulled out of the Sens deal to get in on the Coyotes and move them to the GTA. Not so farfetched.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Apparently the NHL met with the Utah Jazz owner last month.

They also gave the owner of the Sacramento Kings access to the Sens books during the bidding process even though he wasn't interested in actually buying the team.

Vivek Ranadivé, the owner of the Sacramento Kings, who was the last visitor to Ottawa in mid-April, didn’t bid. Hockey Night in Canada’s Elliotte Friedman speculated Monday that Ranadivé looked at Ottawa with an eye towards bringing an expansion franchise to Sacramento.

https://ottawacitizen.com/sports/hoc...b-e9f129c00649

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Count me in the Houston camp too. Then Salt Lake City, Kansas City, Portland, San Diego, London (UK), Mexico City and then maybe Quebec City, but only if there is no other viable alternative.

Pretty confident Arizona would stay in the Western Conference, so that takes out Québec City and London (mostly due to logistics). Never heard Mexico City. Portland's out because they are in Seattle's territory.

[thurmas]

Salt Lake would be a good market instant rivalry with Colorado and divisions can stay the same.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Pretty confident Arizona would stay in the Western Conference, so that takes out Québec City and London (mostly due to logistics). Never heard Mexico City. Portland's out because they are in Seattle's territory.

I was being facetious. I included several of these possibilities just to highlight how much Buttman doesn't want an NHL team in QC. Maybe I should have included Manila or Adelaide in my list just to help get the joke across........