Quote:
Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse
My post was about the claim of "towers-in-the-park" and a decentralised skyline and had nothing to do with the article including proposals or not considering variations in height so none of this is relevant in a potential rebuttal. And I was so confident I was correct in the ratio of 150m+ buildings downtown vs elsewhere I went to the diagrams section and looked it up. If you search completed+ u/c Toronto highrises minimum 150m there are 102 results. I found 8 that are outside central Toronto. That's just under 8%. I'm sure if you counted Mississauga it would be higher but that isn't in Toronto, and based on the numbers cited it doesn't seem to be included in the article analysis.
I don't know what prompts you to make claims about Toronto with such confidence and certainty ("certainly more than 10%") when you clearly don't have the knowledge base to justify it.
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Including proposed buildings, I found 30 out of 195 over 150m outside of downtown Toronto. Mainly in Humber Bay Shores, Scarborough Centre, Yonge & Eglinton and Yonge & St. Clair. Still, those were mostly in the 150-200m range, the tallest towers have always been getting built and proposed in downtown Toronto.
Anyways, although I agree that proposed buildings aren't guaranteed to get build, and defined and tracked differently depending on jurisdiction, in Toronto's case, the large number of proposals shows that investors believe Toronto's boom skyscraper boom will continue. And based on the number under construction, and typical timelines, Toronto will overtake Chicago in 150m+ building counts some time around the end of the decade.
Because Toronto allows highrises outside the core where supply/demand doesn't require buildings to be as tall, it first overtook Chicago in highrise (30m+) counts, which seems to have happened in the late 60s. Then in the 1970s it overtook Chicago in 50m+ buildings. It should overtake Chicago for 75m+ buildings some time this year.
It took a long time for Toronto to go from having more 50m+ buildings to having more 75m+ buildings, because those are heights that until recently have only been associated with CBD buildings and Toronto's CBD was much smaller so it had a lot of catching up to do, but now that it's caught up, it should only take Toronto one or two more years to catch up on the 100m+ building counts. And then a couple more years to catch up on 125m+ buildings and a couple more to catch up on 150m+ buildings. By that point, the only difference really will be that Chicago's 5-10 tallest buildings are taller than Toronto's.
However, I think by the end of the decade, Toronto's office market will have reached the point where it's ready to build Aon/John Hancock sized office towers. There are increasingly few sites in the prime areas of the CBD near Union Station, and we're already starting to see significant increases in the height of office tower proposals as a result. It's only a matter of time before buildings like 33 Yonge or the NW corner of First Canadian Place or BCE Place 3, or redevelopments of the PoMo buildings on University happen, or the MTCC gets moved to Exhibition Place, or West Harbor Castle's convention centre gets redeveloped, and Toronto gets some 350-400m tall office towers.